Ian Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ideally, it would happen every year. Actually, most of the big events are prior to their predicted peak.. plus the festival was lengthened to 3 weeks a few years ago so it would be fairly hard for them to happen outside of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Having said that...this is the closest I've seen March come in a long time for a 93' similarity. And as you all know, this threat window has shown up on my radar for a while now because it is intimately involved with the complex tropical-stratospheric waves/patterns. And really, the entire 3/12-3/18 period is threatening because this is a time of peak PNA that begins retrograding with cold air introduced into pattern. It will probably lead to a break / warm-up toward the 20th or so but I have feeling there is one last cold push waiting thereafter. Thank God for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I hope there's a massive snowstorm at the peak of the festival. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Apart from a few brief warm ups here and there I really couldn't find any signals in the long range guidance pointing to a sharp uptick in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 my pws is at 30 with a dp of 14. light air from nnw. standing outside it feels warmer, not that bitter cold 30 deg. feeling. it feels like warm is coming slowly. I could be me, just feels like today's low temp and tonight's high temp have a warm feel to it. something is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Took the light rail out to lake Roland this afternoon. Five days into March and still a good 90% ice cover. Even managed to walk about 15 ft out from shore. Gonna be sad to see it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This summer won't matter much. Enso is prog'd to build through the summer but not even get much above .5 - 1.0 in 3.4 through the season as it stands now. Signal is weak at best. Summer pattern will be dominated by other oscillations. AMO is pretty interesting as it has blipped and there's some cold water in the north atlantic. Likely a transient feature but worth noting. It's hard to bet against continued variability with periods of warm/cool for the foreseeable future. It will break sometime soon but that's a wag and it's been incredibly persistent for a long time now. The larger effect in nino summers are crappy tropical seasons because wind patterns tend to shear out developing waves. IIRC the pac nw is wetter than average in nino summers but the overall effects here aren't very significant. Thanks, Bob. Was hoping for a bit of nino help this summer, but all-in-all I'd take a continued variable pattern. Just praying not to see persistent SE ridging develope (ala 2010). We've been in such a good pattern for the last 12 months that I'm getting paranoid. Apr - Oct 2010 was a nightmare for me; I never want to see anything like it again. Sorry to hear about your back. Wishes for a speedy recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 my pws is at 30 with a dp of 14. light air from nnw. standing outside it feels warmer, not that bitter cold 30 deg. feeling. it feels like warm is coming slowly. I could be me, just feels like today's low temp and tonight's high temp have a warm feel to it. something is changing. 30 is 30, especially at night, so IMO it's psychological (nothing wring with that, of course). Daytime temps are different matter, parrticularly when there's sunshine. 40 in the sun this time of year can be quite bearable if there's no wind. But 70 in the sun is much nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 30 is 30, especially at night, so IMO it's psychological (nothing wring with that, of course). Daytime temps are different matter, parrticularly when there's sunshine. 40 in the sun this time of year can be quite bearable if there's no wind. But 70 in the sun is much nicer. Maybe to most, but that is about the upper limit in my book, especially before June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 After today, we torch. Not sure why all the Spring lovers are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 After today, we torch. Not sure why all the Spring lovers are down. Not much of a torch, frankly, and doesn't last very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not much of a torch, frankly, and doesn't last very long. Yup. A few milder days followed by even more extended cool days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not much of a torch, frankly, and doesn't last very long. You've got a shot of 60 on Monday or Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You've got a shot of 60 on Monday or Tuesday DC will be at or above normal from Saturday to Wednesday. We have a shot at 60 4 of those days. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 DC will be at or above normal from Saturday to Wednesday. We have a shot at 60 4 of those days. Torch. Yep, a torch and some very springlike weather. Expecting 75 and sunny in early March just isn't realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You've got a shot of 60 on Monday or Tuesday Sure. Here is where we get into semantics. I don't consider 60 for second week of March all that torchy. Upper 60s, sure. Around 60? Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yep, a torch and some very springlike weather. Expecting 75 and sunny in early March just isn't realistic. And then if that happens you hear people say "we went from winter to summer." 50s and sunny is some of the best spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 And then if that happens you hear people say "we went from winter to summer." 50s and sunny is some of the best spring weather. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 You've got a shot of 60 on Monday or Tuesday 60 isn't much of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 tee-hee-hee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 60 isn't much of a torch.Thank you. It's like 5-7 degrees above normal, no? I just don't consider that all that torchy. It's nice seasonal weather.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 tee-hee-hee I'm not sure that will ever change at this point. Seriously though with the lakes so frozen and so much cold NW it's going to take a few months to ditch this crap entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm not sure that will ever change at this point. Seriously though with the lakes so frozen and so much cold NW it's going to take a few months to ditch this crap entirely. funny you should mention that....this is about how March looked on the CFS2 this time in FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 funny you should mention that....this is about how March looked on the CFS2 this time in FEB Eventually climo will win but Euro weeklies have very meager shots of warmth on the whole with cold still winning into early April. CFS going out months keeps a cold anomaly over the lakes.. tho I dunno how much that matters once we get to a certain point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So long as we don't get 90s the 2nd week of April, I'm good. Cool springs are rarely ever as cold and miserable as people fear... we're too far south to get stuck into weeks of 40s and drizzle like SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So long as we don't get 90s the 2nd week of April, I'm good. Cool springs are rarely ever as cold and miserable as people fear... we're too far south to get stuck into weeks of 40s and drizzle like SNE The key word is rarely... April 2007 was actually pretty miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 At least with progressive flow the cold shots will be short lived. We'll go near to above climo within 3 days after each fropa. The later into march we get we will have some really nice days even if the month as a whole comes in below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 In 40 days a below normal day is low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 60 isn't much of a torch. The cold weenies are happy to argue this point with people like me and NE Balti, but not with you. 60 in the second week of March simply isn't "torch" territory for this area. It's less abnormal than a high in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Maybe to most, but that is about the upper limit in my book, especially before June. To each their own. Of course, that upper limit is completely unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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