mappy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What time do we dance naked around an oak tree and sacrifice virgin swow weenie? 12:57 this afternoon when spring officially starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What time do we dance naked around an oak tree and sacrifice virgin swow weenie? 12:57 this afternoon when spring officially starts Good. Sun angle is best at that time. #goodbyepastyskin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Those of you who said Ocean City, MD couldn't see 6 inches or more of snow in March...*cough ers-wxman1 cough* The closest observation nearest to Ocean City, MD that I could find is in Ocean Pines, MD which isn't too far to where the Ocean City ASOS is located. They recorded 6.2 inches of snow. And the live cam of OC was very snowy, wish I took a screen shot. Just wanted to make that clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What time do we dance naked around an oak tree and sacrifice virgin swow weenie? 12:57 this afternoon when spring officially starts Good. Sun angle is best at that time. #goodbyepastyskin So.....do we have a 'volunteer'??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 So.....do we have a 'volunteer'??? yes, pretty sure H2O volunteered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If the euro ensembles are right, we flip above normal on the 29th and stay there for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 If the euro ensembles are right, we flip above normal on the 29th and stay there for a while. HM and Matt both mentioned an April window. Is that going by the wayside? Tho honestly April snow is fake.. #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 HM and Matt both mentioned an April window. Is that going by the wayside? Tho honestly April snow is fake.. #climo Hard to say. GFS flips pac zonal and stays. Euro goes trough west/ridge east. We've seen these looks be either short lived and pushed back time and time again. But it's a different time of year. We'll see what happens with lr guidance over the next few days. I'm thinking we close the month out on the warm side. Maybe we get another cold shot but it's not showing right now. I'm done with snow too. Warm is fine. Especially after the HECS next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldn't mind a flip to warmth, I just hope it doesn't last 3 years almost uninterrupted (like March 2010 to January 2013). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldn't mind a flip to warmth, I just hope it doesn't last 3 years almost uninterrupted (like March 2010 to January 2013). Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 So.....do we have a 'volunteer'??? Bring yo dolla bills! It will be an interpretive dance. Think of an emerging flower saying hello to the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If the euro ensembles are right, we flip above normal on the 29th and stay there for a while. All in. The weeklies were advertising the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 we had snow in fall (12/8 & 12/10) and during winter this year so it is only fitting that we have measurable snow in Spring next week.....then I'm done....bring on the Nino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Bring yo dolla bills! It will be an interpretive dance. Think of an emerging flower saying hello to the sun WTMI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro ens is pretty locked in on at least a weak eastern ridge/western trough after the superstorm. Would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro ens is pretty locked in on at least a weak eastern ridge/western trough after the superstorm. Would be nice. A nice warm week of sun and blue skies with highs 65-70 would be very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro weeklies look like some fun for svr weather fans too.. end of month outbreak in the central US? Do have a mid-April cold rain storm signal too around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro weeklies look like some fun for svr weather fans too.. end of month outbreak in the central US? Do have a mid-April cold rain storm signal too around here. Judging by the pattern developing in the Pacific over the next few days, with a series of strong jet streaks rotating around the East Asian vortex and also the lead ULL out ahead of it, there is definitely some interest there. I don't think the first system immediately after this cold shot (i.e. the one that ejects initially) will be the one to deliver a more substantial threat though, if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 March 22 is D.C.'s first 90 degree day on record. Getting closer to torch season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Today's Euro weeklies ens mean has pretty much wall to wall mild after this next event through mid-April, maybe a bit of a cool shot toward the end. The control ver has another storm or two first through early April. I guess I'll lean on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Today's Euro weeklies ens mean has pretty much wall to wall mild after this next event through mid-April, maybe a bit of a cool shot toward the end. The control ver has another storm or two first through early April. I guess I'll lean on the mean. Anything notable in terms of western troughing? I haven't been able to check them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Anything notable in terms of western troughing? I haven't been able to check them. mean has some right after the east coast storm but as you noted might not be enough time for return moisture etc on that one. another lobe comes in to start april but kind of washes out as it heads east.. but it is a mean so who knows on that detail. much of the rest looks a bit zonal but has lower heights out west than east with at least a bit of a dip through the 4 corners area so probably suggestive of west coast troughing of some sort. the control is not quite as favorable but also has a system around the turn of the month that verbatim looks decent in its track.. comes in low and ejects across the southern plains. but then it has two systems in the east again with western ridging. way out it starts kicking trough after trough through the west and into the plains but that's like second week of april so not sure it means much. so in short.. the mean is probably decent.. or better than it's been, but the control looks a little more like a continuity forecast for a while which might be kind of believable? im not terribly familiar with the weeklies but despite the control matching what we've seen I have to assume the mean is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 FWIW, Here is the CFS for April. Looks seasonal locally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 so in short.. the mean is probably decent.. or better than it's been, but the control looks a little more like a continuity forecast for a while which might be kind of believable? im not terribly familiar with the weeklies but despite the control matching what we've seen I have to assume the mean is better. The mean is definitely better to use, the control throws all kinds of strange solutions around no matter what pattern is in place at the time/close to the time of initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If the recent ens look of prolonged warmth + ridging verifies it will be the first time it didn't break cold in over 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 The mean is definitely better to use, the control throws all kinds of strange solutions around no matter what pattern is in place at the time/close to the time of initiation. yeah.. kind of knew the answer but it looks at least sort of reasonable based on the pattern we've seen. but obviously the 51 member solutions are going to be a little more realistic. it's definitely a better look than we've seen.. nothing super crazy standing out though. would imagine early april has some shots if not right as we flip months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Warm look continues to hold starting next weekend. Break out the shorts and flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Warm look continues to hold starting next weekend. Break out the shorts and flip flops. Finally. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm sure this will come as a total shock but the ensembles are starting to toss the prolonged warmth idea and replace it with alternating aoa/aob. Nothing extreme or anything so the aob days will nice. I had my doubts that the persistent pattern was breaking. Looks like typical early spring weather is on tap. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Its march, the typical up and down with temps is to be expected. If it is the middle of April and I'm still dealing with 30s, I'll be annoyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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