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Spring is here: Pics and happy talk stuff


Ian

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Those of you who said Ocean City, MD couldn't see 6 inches or more of snow in March...*cough ers-wxman1 cough* ;)

 

The closest observation nearest to Ocean City, MD that I could find is in Ocean Pines, MD which isn't too far to where the Ocean City ASOS is located. They recorded 6.2 inches of snow. And the live cam of OC was very snowy, wish I took a screen shot.

 

Just wanted to make that clear :)

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If the euro ensembles are right, we flip above normal on the 29th and stay there for a while.

HM and Matt both mentioned an April window. Is that going by the wayside?

 

Tho honestly April snow is fake.. #climo

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HM and Matt both mentioned an April window. Is that going by the wayside?

Tho honestly April snow is fake.. #climo

Hard to say. GFS flips pac zonal and stays. Euro goes trough west/ridge east. We've seen these looks be either short lived and pushed back time and time again. But it's a different time of year. We'll see what happens with lr guidance over the next few days. I'm thinking we close the month out on the warm side. Maybe we get another cold shot but it's not showing right now.

I'm done with snow too. Warm is fine. Especially after the HECS next week.

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Euro weeklies look like some fun for svr weather fans too.. end of month outbreak in the central US?  Do have a mid-April cold rain storm signal too around here.

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Euro weeklies look like some fun for svr weather fans too.. end of month outbreak in the central US?  Do have a mid-April cold rain storm signal too around here.

 

Judging by the pattern developing in the Pacific over the next few days, with a series of strong jet streaks rotating around the East Asian vortex and also the lead ULL out ahead of it, there is definitely some interest there. I don't think the first system immediately after this cold shot (i.e. the one that ejects initially) will be the one to deliver a more substantial threat though, if it develops.

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Today's Euro weeklies ens mean has pretty much wall to wall mild after this next event through mid-April, maybe a bit of a cool shot toward the end.  The control ver has another storm or two first through early April. I guess I'll lean on the mean.

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Today's Euro weeklies ens mean has pretty much wall to wall mild after this next event through mid-April, maybe a bit of a cool shot toward the end.  The control ver has another storm or two first through early April. I guess I'll lean on the mean.

 

Anything notable in terms of western troughing? I haven't been able to check them.

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Anything notable in terms of western troughing? I haven't been able to check them.

mean has some right after the east coast storm but as you noted might not be enough time for return moisture etc on that one. another lobe comes in to start april but kind of washes out  as it heads east.. but it is a mean so who knows on that detail. much of the rest looks a bit zonal but has lower heights out west than east with at least a bit of a dip through the 4 corners area so probably suggestive of west coast troughing of some sort. 

 

the control is not quite as favorable but also has a system around the turn of the month that verbatim looks decent in its track.. comes in low and ejects across the southern plains.  but then it has two systems in the east again with western ridging.  way out it starts kicking trough after trough through the west and into the plains but that's like second week of april so not sure it means much. 

 

so in short.. the mean is probably decent.. or better than it's been, but the control looks a little more like a continuity forecast for a while which might be kind of believable? im not terribly familiar with the weeklies but despite the control matching what we've seen I have to assume the mean is better.

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so in short.. the mean is probably decent.. or better than it's been, but the control looks a little more like a continuity forecast for a while which might be kind of believable? im not terribly familiar with the weeklies but despite the control matching what we've seen I have to assume the mean is better.

 

The mean is definitely better to use, the control throws all kinds of strange solutions around no matter what pattern is in place at the time/close to the time of initiation.

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The mean is definitely better to use, the control throws all kinds of strange solutions around no matter what pattern is in place at the time/close to the time of initiation.

yeah.. kind of knew the answer but it looks at least sort of reasonable based on the pattern we've seen. but obviously the 51 member solutions are going to be a little more realistic. 

 

it's definitely a better look than we've seen.. nothing super crazy standing out though.  would imagine early april has some shots if not right as we flip months.

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I'm sure this will come as a total shock but the ensembles are starting to toss the prolonged warmth idea and replace it with alternating aoa/aob. Nothing extreme or anything so the aob days will nice.

I had my doubts that the persistent pattern was breaking. Looks like typical early spring weather is on tap. I'm good with that.

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