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Spring is here: Pics and happy talk stuff


Ian

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I had a tree fall on my house. Storm was awesome! Had a tree fall on my driveway. Had to cut it up, and hawl brush in 100 degree weather for 2 days. Storm was awesome! Lost power for 5 days from a remnant hurricane. Storm was awesome! Been nearly hit by lightning 3 times. Loved it all 3 times. Nearly killed by falling branches during derecho. I would do it again in a heartbeat. I have always loved severe weather and always will.

Wow, hawling all that brush sounds like a great workout! Darwin will catch up to you, someday.

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Trying my hand at this but here goes...I was looking at the lastest EPS weeklies. The mean 500 map looks to have a zonal flow around the beginning of the month through the end of the run, suggesting normal to slightly above normal temps. A bit of a semblance of a SE ridge develops too in the beginning of the month but looks to be a bit weak.

Ian/Bob - are my thoughts in line with what you are seeing on that map?

I typically only look at the second half of the weeklies run. The first 15 days should closely resemble the regular ensemble suite. I'm not sure how accurate the weeklies have been. This is the first year I've ever paid attention to them.

I agree that there looks to be some zonal flow on the means. However, it could just be averaging out amplified flow just with different placement. Towards the end of the run it looks like a good signal for goa ridging combined with a -nao. Nothing extreme or anything.

I think the longwave pattern will remain the same as it's been all winter until it clearly breaks (like a strong se ridge taking shape or something like that). We'll probably continue too see variable weather for the foreseeable future. Annoying cold for a few days followed by pleasant warmth for a few days. The annoying cold will probably be more annoying than how pleasant the warmth is. lol. We've been stuck on replay for what seems like forever. Ian made a post some time ago about never betting against persistence until persistence is no longer there. That thought has stuck with me for a long time. And has proven true over and over again.

I will say that the persistence we've seen for many months now is remarkable. One would think it has to break at some point. When is anyone's guess attm.

If I had to make a wag about april right now I would say it ends up wetter than normal with below normal temps. Probably not extreme cold. May end up being a really pleasant month even if it ends up -1 to -2. I don't like upper 70's in april.

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If I had to make a wag about april right now I would say it ends up wetter than normal with below normal temps. Probably not extreme cold. May end up being a really pleasant month even if it ends up -1 to -2. I don't like upper 70's in april.

Assuming March is below normal, which looks like a near-lock right now, we'll be only one 3-day pre-Xmas supertorch away from having 5 consecutive months below normal (November, January, February and March).  Having April come in below normal also would be a pretty remarkable stretch in the last 10-20 years (maybe longer than that).  But, agree with betting on persistence until proven wrong.  

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This seems kind of banter-y, but this conversation is playing out like the conversation in my head every time wind/severe is in the forecast. I love all wild weather, but as the father of two little ones, the husband of a nervous wife, and the owner of a small house surrounded by big trees (including a 100+ year old oak), I get more anxious than I'd like when tree-damaging weather is in the forecast. Here's my house (you can kind of see the fence rail we had to replace earlier this winter after a large limb fell).

 

attachicon.gifhouse tree.jpg

 

(Mods: Move this to banter if necessary.) 

 

Is that your land or CA land?  If CA's, you should give them a call.  I know Columbia residents that have had them out to survey the trees surrounding their property and if they deem anything unsafe, they remove it.  They don't like removing the trees unless they're dead, but they do a lot of pruning, and that helps to keep trees upright.

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Assuming March is below normal, which looks like a near-lock right now, we'll be only one 3-day pre-Xmas supertorch away from having 5 consecutive months below normal (November, January, February and March). Having April come in below normal also would be a pretty remarkable stretch in the last 10-20 years (maybe longer than that). But, agree with betting on persistence until proven wrong.

It's really been an amazing stretch since basically Feb of last year. The summer heat was mostly due to 80 degree lows during the humid soup stretch. I found last summer pretty bearable.

Not sure what's going on. There is ocean response to the shift in both the n atl and n pac. The overall shift in long wave patterns seems to be hemispheric. Hows, whys, and whats, are beyond me. Enso moving to weak/mod nino is looking more and more likely. What if we have a mod nino with the pv residing in central and se canada? Heh. Split flow, western ridging oscillating from the coast - goa - ak. And toss in a persistent ec trough and west based -nao....why doesn't it sound that crazy?

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Assuming March is below normal, which looks like a near-lock right now, we'll be only one 3-day pre-Xmas supertorch away from having 5 consecutive months below normal (November, January, February and March).  Having April come in below normal also would be a pretty remarkable stretch in the last 10-20 years (maybe longer than that).  But, agree with betting on persistence until proven wrong.  

 

*Enter WinterWxLuvr teling us how cold it's been in Winchester the last 15 months or so*

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Is that your land or CA land?  If CA's, you should give them a call.  I know Columbia residents that have had them out to survey the trees surrounding their property and if they deem anything unsafe, they remove it.  They don't like removing the trees unless they're dead, but they do a lot of pruning, and that helps to keep trees upright.

 

The tree is kind of split between my property and CA's. We had it pruned a couple years ago and it's in pretty good shape.

 

I'm friends with some guys at CA and joke with them that I'm happy to maintain the tree, but if it ever has to be removed it's on them. 

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The early cherry outside my place is starting to bloom. A few opening.. Next few days will do it. A number of other bushes as well.

 

Article in the Post today was making the argument that since some of the early spring flowers and trees have been delayed, we will actually get a more interesting mix when everything comes up.

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