snowfan Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I thought severe weenies didn't exist. Just people that are in it for the science Calling severe t'storm weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd be curious to see the breakdown of who likes severe weather/who doesn't vs those who rent/own their property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 *crickets* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Silly neverending winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Repeat of last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Repeat of last year? In the Plains? Not looking good so far. Almost worse with the pattern not changing.. can only imagine there's going to be cold front undercutting issues etc again once things ramp up a bit. You can sense the southern plains chase teams starting to get a little anxious on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 In the Plains? Not looking good so far. Almost worse with the pattern not changing.. can only imagine there's going to be cold front undercutting issues etc again once things ramp up a bit. You can sense the southern plains chase teams starting to get a little anxious on Twitter. I mean in general across the whole CONUS. One of the problems last year is that we couldn't get a trough in March or April to eject cleanly and cut off some of the anafrontal undercutting. There was that D3 moderate for April 10th or whatever and the 500 mb setup for that wasn't exactly ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I mean in general across the whole CONUS. One of the problems last year is that we couldn't get a trough in March or April to eject cleanly and cut off some of the anafrontal undercutting. There was that D3 moderate for April 10th or whatever and the 500 mb setup for that wasn't exactly ideal.Ahh. Yeah that's true. I'm not much of a long ranger but I like persistence until there are great signs of change starting to show up. Hard to see why we won't keep getting cold shot to roll in out of Canada for a while yet. Marks svr wx outlook makes me think we could see a severe season sort of like last year. Of course it made up in big tors for what it lacked in numbers. Not sure what if anything a developing niño might mean. My guess around here is we will have a better storm season as last yr was kind of crappy. Not sure it will be a hot summer tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Ahh. Yeah that's true. I'm not much of a long ranger but I like persistence until there are great signs of change starting to show up. Hard to see why we won't keep getting cold shot to roll in out of Canada for a while yet. Marks svr wx outlook makes me think we could see a severe season sort of like last year. Of course it made up in big tors for what it lacked in numbers. Not sure what if anything a developing niño might mean. My guess around here is we will have a better storm season as last yr was kind of crappy. Not sure it will be a hot summer tho. Well historically a more rapidly developing Nino (i.e. a flip from negative to positive with ENSO) in the earlier months has been coincident with more active seasons (or at least seasons with significant events). I have noticed that 1982 is a decent analog for this year based on the patterns we've witnessed this Winter and also ENSO wise and that had the most active May on record up until that point and some significant events in April as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well historically a more rapidly developing Nino (i.e. a flip from negative to positive with ENSO) in the earlier months has been coincident with more active seasons (or at least seasons with significant events). I have noticed that 1982 is a decent analog for this year based on the patterns we've witnessed this Winter and also ENSO wise and that had the most active May on record up until that point and some significant events in April as well. That would be nice. Well for us. My knowledge of all that is definitely limited.. I know that coming out of a nino we've had some good seasons recently like 2003 and 2010. I don't think it's worth getting too worked up early in the season about "trends" as often they reverse pretty quick.. almost like you've bottled it all up and then it explodes. The seasons that started big lately seem to have waned toward the usual peak outside perhaps a massive day like in May 2011 which was otherwise dominated by early activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd be curious to see the breakdown of who likes severe weather/who doesn't vs those who rent/own their property.pretty sure simple water causes more damage to property than anything else. Maybe we should stop liking precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd bet there's an inverse correlation between increasing love for severe and the the following variables: Age Amount of property and real estate owned # of children I think these variables are all true for normal people but probably not so much for people on this board. With all the tree damage I have sustained from Irene, Sandy and two October snows in the last few years I still get a thrill when severe weather is forcast. It is truly an illness which most people will never understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Looks like we'll see some pleasant temps for a time to close out the month. Hard to say exactly when but after next week's ridiculous cold shot there looks to be a nice moderation as height rise here in response to some troughing out west. Doesn't look terribly amplified. Maybe pac zonal style here. Hard to tell except there appears to be a chance to string together a couple nice days. Low 70's look possible. Early April looks aob again though. We'll see how guidance goes with the potential warm up even if short lived. Even I'm all in on some warm sunny days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Ahh. Yeah that's true. I'm not much of a long ranger but I like persistence until there are great signs of change starting to show up. Hard to see why we won't keep getting cold shot to roll in out of Canada for a while yet. Marks svr wx outlook makes me think we could see a severe season sort of like last year. Of course it made up in big tors for what it lacked in numbers. Not sure what if anything a developing niño might mean. My guess around here is we will have a better storm season as last yr was kind of crappy. Not sure it will be a hot summer tho. I like to watch/chase like many, but if I had a choice in the matter the highlighted would do THIS body good! Course, you don't need HOT for severe storms either. Lets combine the two for a win/win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 pretty sure simple water causes more damage to property than anything else. Maybe we should stop liking precipitation. Pretty sure I'd rather have water wear off my roof over the next 30 years than have it blown off one afternoon in April. Rent or own Ian? Which is it? I already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Pretty sure I'd rather have water wear off my roof over the next 30 years than have it blown off one afternoon in April. Rent or own Ian? Which is it? I already know. I own property, and I love severe weather. I don't understand those who find it so toxic..I find it invigorating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Pretty sure I'd rather have water wear off my roof over the next 30 years than have it blown off one afternoon in April. Rent or own Ian? Which is it? I already know. You're kinda dumb sometimes. I'm not going to talk about this with you anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I own property, and I love severe weather. I don't understand those who find it so toxic..I find it invigorating. I have insurance and I don't have the power to change weather. Severe is exciting. No 2 ways around it. I'll root for any exciting weather in my yard. It's ingrained in my DNA. I don't like mid 90's too much at all. If it's going to be hot, 100-105 is more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 wxluvr...I currently rent. However, I owned a home in East Nashville that was significantly damaged in the April '98 tornado that hit the city. I also sustained significant damage to my home in Memphis during "Hurricane Elvis" (a 100 mph straight line derecho event) that occurred in 2003. With that as background, even having personally suffered damage during a tornado, I still love big storms of all types, including severe with wind threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I have insurance and I don't have the power to change weather. Severe is exciting. No 2 ways around it. I'll root for any exciting weather in my yard. It's ingrained in my DNA. I don't like mid 90's too much at all. If it's going to be hot, 100-105 is more interesting. Prob like 95%+ of all the storms most of us see at any given location aren't severe anyway. If a tree fell into my condo I'd probably not be that thrilled. Otherwise.. oh noes a big limb fell on my street! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I own property, and I love severe weather. I don't understand those who find it so toxic..I find it invigorating. Ditto. I own 3+ acres that I cleared enough of to put the house on, HEAVILY wooded like middle of forest stuff. I still love severe, winds, storms, snows, etc. Do I worry at times? Yep. Furthest spot a tree is away from house is maybe 50 foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Prob like 95%+ of all the storms most of us see at any given location aren't severe anyway. If a tree fell into my condo I'd probably not be that thrilled. Otherwise.. oh noes a big limb fell on my street! I took a tree branch through the roof in July 2010 (I think it was that year). 60-70mph confirmed gusts in my area. It was wild. Even with a hole in the roof, $2k in tree work, and light water damage I enjoyed it. The weaknesses in my trees has been culled the last 4 years. I'm not even worried anymore. The derecho didn't little damage. I was shocked. I found a great high point near my house with a clear view to the w and s. I'll drive over there just to watch the cloud formations approach. I'm going to bring my SLR this year to try and capture interesting images. Unfortunately my house is in a wooded area so there is limited viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Pretty sure I'd rather have water wear off my roof over the next 30 years than have it blown off one afternoon in April. Rent or own Ian? Which is it? I already know. Since he said he's not gonna talk to you about it anymore, I can tell you that he owns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Pretty sure I'd rather have water wear off my roof over the next 30 years than have it blown off one afternoon in April. Rent or own Ian? Which is it? I already know. I'm not really sure it matters too much. Rent or Own (and I own) damage is still a PITA to deal with. And I actually agree with Ian, water is more of a problem. And I'm in a townhome that backs up to a heavily wooded area with some very tall trees no more than 50 feet from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
columbiawx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This seems kind of banter-y, but this conversation is playing out like the conversation in my head every time wind/severe is in the forecast. I love all wild weather, but as the father of two little ones, the husband of a nervous wife, and the owner of a small house surrounded by big trees (including a 100+ year old oak), I get more anxious than I'd like when tree-damaging weather is in the forecast. Here's my house (you can kind of see the fence rail we had to replace earlier this winter after a large limb fell). (Mods: Move this to banter if necessary.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Trying my hand at this but here goes...I was looking at the lastest EPS weeklies. The mean 500 map looks to have a zonal flow around the beginning of the month through the end of the run, suggesting normal to slightly above normal temps. A bit of a semblance of a SE ridge develops too in the beginning of the month but looks to be a bit weak. Ian/Bob - are my thoughts in line with what you are seeing on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Prob like 95%+ of all the storms most of us see at any given location aren't severe anyway. If a tree fell into my condo I'd probably not be that thrilled. Otherwise.. oh noes a big limb fell on my street! Eh, there's a pretty strong detachment in this forum regarding damage to property and injury or death from weather until it hits close to home. When those chasers unfortunately lost their lives last year the forum seemed to respond with normal human empathy. And when MoJo was off the grid for awhile there was a big outpouring of concern. Otherwise expressions of concern are usually scoffed at as having no relevant place for discussuon. Seems like as population density continues to increase and expand, more of us will have first hand opportunities to "be in the way" of damaging weather, which is too bad and no fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Nats home opening day will be in range tomorrow (April 4). GFS la la land, but who cares because Spring will NOT be denied (although LaRoche will likely remain cold until Summer, as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Nats home opening day will be in range tomorrow (April 4). GFS la la land, but who cares because Spring will NOT be denied (although LaRoche will likely remain cold until Summer, as usual). image.jpg Potential roof ripping off t-storms. Heck yeah. And I don't disagree with your prior comment at all really. We are all kind of disaster mongers here in the end.. so no need to judge anyone too strongly for their preferred poison. Snow is damaging and deadly even if people want to act like it's just pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I had a tree fall on my house. Storm was awesome! Had a tree fall on my driveway. Had to cut it up, and haul brush in 100 degree weather for 2 days. Storm was awesome! Lost power for 5 days from a remnant hurricane. Storm was awesome! Been nearly hit by lightning 3 times. Loved it all 3 times. Nearly killed by falling branches during derecho. I would do it again in a heartbeat. I have always loved severe weather and always will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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