IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The phase still occurred this run but it was a few hours later. Also the PV was able to remain intact and elongate some north to south, big improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Weaker Primary , Great CAD signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Def a great cad signal but then the high slides off the coast and there's another too far north to keep the cold air in for the coast. Just another one of many solutions we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The GFS basically sees the Miller B idea but has no clue to get there, it started developing the 2nd low and then lost it and the other low took an eastward scoot over SPA and the MA off the coast, the secondary would probably form way earlier in such a setup...actually by the 147 hour frame is probably when the coastal would take over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The GFS basically sees the Miller B idea but has no clue to get there, it started developing the 2nd low and then lost it and the other low took an eastward scoot over SPA and the MA off the coast, the secondary would probably form way earlier in such a setup...actually by the 147 hour frame is probably when the coastal would take over... Agreed and in that case it'd prob be just off of OBX or just north of there..maybe the Va capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's definitely a better run than 18z, and if things really played out as the gfs depicts then we would probably see a faster transfer. If that high to the north trends stronger or more expansive, then we would see some major CAD for some probably resulting in a big time ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think worst case scenario with this event is we see a repeat of the 12/14 event but I'd be inclined to believe we'll get coastal redevelopment faster in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's definitely a better run than 18z, and if things really played out as the gfs depicts then we would probably see a faster transfer. If that high to the north trends stronger or more expansive, then we would see some major CAD for some probably resulting in a big time ice event. We all know this is going to change 1000 times. I agree with Earthlight to follow the ensembles for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We all know this is going to change 1000 times. I agree with Earthlight to follow the ensembles for now. That's true, worst case I think is a major ice storm to the N&W of the city and into NE PA if the CAD is in play. If that's the case, then they should pray for just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Canadian should get everyone's attention..another bomb and maybe a hair too warm, but watch how the PV being farther east shunts the shortwave east underneath it. Huge precip amounts and a secondary low tracking from ACY to Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That sounds like a coastal hugger...And would have issues for NYC and LI in all likelihood maybe after a front end thump. Again, just another solution but a miller b is becoming more likely. I like what I see tonight so far. I am excited for the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's true, worst case I think is a major ice storm to the N&W of the city and into NE PA if the CAD is in play. If that's the case, then they should pray for just rain. 0z GFS verbatim is Snow to Sleet for MGJ.. I think thats the worst case scenario for these parts. Ive seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just checked out the GGEM on wb and its missing a frame a hr 156 which happens often on there for me. But hr 150 looks a little warm like earthlight said but a small shift east and everyone sees a big winter storm. By small shift I mean like 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Where's the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Where's the GEFS? Looks like the op, maybe a tad left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro looks better with that monday system..1" up to monmouth, 2-3" up to snj..Off the coast of nc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Kinda looks like the ggem, albeit less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What does the euro show for mid week? Let me guess still a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What does the euro show for mid week? Let me guess still a cutter? Assuming what irishbri said above is correct, redevelopment to a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Assuming what irishbri said above is correct, redevelopment to a coastal hugger. A Coastal Hugger that's closer to the BM. The PV is over SE Canada, so basically the confluence is pushing with a WNW flow over the NW Atlantic and therefore the primary weakens through HR 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks... outcome would still be the same for the coast heavy rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks... outcome would still be the same for the coast heavy rain.... Not really, more like Heavy Snow to Ice (NW of I-78/80)/Rain south and east of I-78/80, then some back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That would be nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A few inches near the coast 8-12" NW such as Sussex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A few inches near the coast 8-12" NW such as Sussex county The SE Ridge is more relaxed on the ECMWF Vs. the GGEM. The 582 dm contour kisses Southern Florida on the ECMWF, but the 582 dm contour is over NE Florida on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The temps on the Euro only get to the mid thirties on long island and with an 850mb low west of the area, it's def rain but its not super far off from something more. An earlier transfer and its subfreezing all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The temps on the Euro only get to the mid thirties on long island and with an 850mb low west of the area, it's def rain but its not super far off from something more. An earlier transfer and its subfreezing all the way to the coast. I think LI has real potential of 8-12 inches next Wednesday and 12-18 inches the following weekend. Pattern supports it strongly, have to say that. We will be talking about snowfall depths, magnitude and duration instead of frigid temps in February. I bet March has a 75-80 degree day inland after the dust settles and some subfreezing days too. Feb should have lots of 25-30 degree days, instead of 15. We will be back to tons of our normal wet snow and 10-1 ratio paste LI'ers are accustomed to. Ground will be in great shape for spring, due to tons of snow melt, once this winter is over. Will be green as anything come last week of April and May. Risk a foggy and backdoorish spring followed by a warmish May at times to a very hot June, based in what did happen in 1994. I feel a very good SVR season this summer unlike last one. This Feb 2014, we'll be like the green pigs in "Angry Birds" getting hits and strikes over and over again, finally the " mighty eagle" strikes w/ the grand finale HECS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think LI has real potential of 8-12 inches next Wednesday and 12-18 inches the following weekend. Pattern supports it strongly, have to say that. We will be talking about snowfall depths, magnitude and duration instead of frigid temps in February. I bet March has a 75-80 degree day inland after the dust settles and some subfreezing days too. Feb should have lots of 25-30 degree days, instead of 15. We will be back to tons of our normal wet snow and 10-1 ratio paste LI'ers are accustomed to. Ground will be in great shape for spring, due to tons of snow melt, once this winter is over. Will be green as anything come last week of April and May. Risk a foggy and backdoorish spring followed by a warmish May at times to a very hot June, based in what did happen in 1994. I feel a very good SVR season this summer unlike last one. This Feb 2014, we'll be like the green pigs in "Angry Birds" getting hits and strikes over and over again, finally the " mighty eagle" strikes w/ the grand finale HECS..Looking at tonight's runs, your over the top drama might actually be warranted for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think LI has real potential of 8-12 inches next Wednesday and 12-18 inches the following weekend. Pattern supports it strongly, have to say that. We will be talking about snowfall depths, magnitude and duration instead of frigid temps in February. I bet March has a 75-80 degree day inland after the dust settles and some subfreezing days too. Feb should have lots of 25-30 degree days, instead of 15. We will be back to tons of our normal wet snow and 10-1 ratio paste LI'ers are accustomed to. Ground will be in great shape for spring, due to tons of snow melt, once this winter is over. Will be green as anything come last week of April and May. Risk a foggy and backdoorish spring followed by a warmish May at times to a very hot June, based in what did happen in 1994. I feel a very good SVR season this summer unlike last one. This Feb 2014, we'll be like the green pigs in "Angry Birds" getting hits and strikes over and over again, finally the " mighty eagle" strikes w/ the grand finale HECS..weather porn for snow geeks like me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lol you also said it probably would not get above freezing for weeks, and it did about 5-6 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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