SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's been noted that models frequently showed the systems in Feb 1994 being way too phased and cutting when in reality they were much weaker and un-phased resulting in multiple snow events. Doesn't mean things will trend the same for this storm, but it's something to keep in mind during the model mayhem. Models are way better now than 19 years ago but they still tend to overphase in split flow patterns alot of the time so very possible its the same thing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Didn't the latest Euro solution just a few hours ago give NYC a lot of snow? I don't get all the panic over a GFS run. Euro has not been accurate lately and most models have been consistently trending west with all (Especially GFS and NAM) storms, not by 10-20 miles, but by 100's just in the course of 80hrs. People are panicking because if the GFS is already showing rain then chances are it won't trend better given where the low is shown to be located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the day 6 WPC image ----4 lows???? now that's a Waltz across texas......... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=cur®ion=we http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z DGEX is a cutter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the day 6 WPC image ----4 lows???? now that's a Waltz across texas......... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=cur®ion=we http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Ah DM how I've missed your contributions over the years (used to be a follower on another site).... Don't always full understand them but with a little research, I do my best to try and understand.. half the fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the day 6 WPC image ----4 lows???? now that's a Waltz across texas......... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=cur®ion=we http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Always good times when the Doorman shows up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Monday's system has been changing run to run and a lot of spread still exists amongst the ensembles. I suspect that will have a larger amount of influence on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 All in all.....doesn't look great for a very snowy solution, but it's definitely not set in stone yet. I feel like beyond 5 days things could go ANYWHERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the system eventually transfers to the coast, even above our latitude, is it still referred to as a cutter? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Monday's system has been changing run to run and a lot of spread still exists amongst the ensembles. I suspect that will have a larger amount of influence on the pattern. That storm will set up the baroclinic zone. So with the wide variance that's going on, I'm pretty sure we won't see true consistency until at least Monday Night. If the system eventually transfers to the coast, even above our latitude, is it still referred to as a cutter? Just curious. That's a Coastal Runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I will only be upset if this solution keeps showing up every run. The last two systems changed by 3-400 miles all while being within 3 days. I know the common perception is once a model shows something like a cutter it never goes back. John even said yesterday he knew we would see back and forth. So relax. Technically we have 3 shots in 10 days for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I will only be upset if this solution keeps showing up every run. The last two systems changed by 3-400 miles all while being within 3 days. I know the common perception is once a model shows something like a cutter it never goes back. John even said yesterday he knew we would see back and forth. So relax. Technically we have 3 shots in 10 days for snow. The tendency for that is the pattern for cutters is generally a pretty broad one and simple one, coastals and Miler Bs tend to be a more convoluted pattern, thats why I think in general when models strongly lock into a cutter idea it usually holds, because those patterns that support them tend to be blatantly obvious cutter patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The tendency for that is the pattern for cutters is generally a pretty broad one and simple one, coastals and Miler Bs tend to be a more convoluted pattern, thats why I think in general when models strongly lock into a cutter idea it usually holds, because those patterns that support them tend to be blatantly obvious cutter patterns. A cutter is not set in stone because there is a lot of variance going on right now, however if the models lock on to it cutting for a few runs, then it's likely going to cut. The pattern coming up is still highly supportive of above normal snows and cold even if next week's system cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still a model eternity with this one, I wouldn't jump off a bridge yet.this. One week out and the bridge jumpers have started already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM?Not even close to range yet. Only goes to 84 and we are at like 150+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 here is a loop of the 18z GFS run with the Critical Thickness images Look under the -Surface -options menu http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ this is a sweet tool !!!! A much easier guide for viewing the wackiness about to unfold -IMHO- Feb 8th- posted for the snow bunnies! I work on the cheap ...thanks for all the kind responses DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Sure is nice having the doorman again. He opens good doors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z DGEX is a cutter too.With plenty of frozen before surface temps go above freezing. It's similar to the ggem/euro. Gfs is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Didn't the latest Euro solution just a few hours ago give NYC a lot of snow? I don't get all the panic over a GFS run.For some reason the sleet showed up as snow on SV and Wxbell snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 With plenty of frozen before surface temps go above freezing. It's similar to the ggem/euro. Gfs is on its own. Another solution upcoming.. Any bets on where it has the low now? I'm starting to wish the gfs only ran twice a day like the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another solution upcoming.. Any bets on where it has the low now? I'm starting to wish the gfs only ran twice a day like the euro lol This thing is a week away, you're going to get a million solutions from now untill then, thats how models operate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This thing is a week away, you're going to get a million solutions from now untill then, thats how models the GFS operates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml latest WPC day 6 update The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For Official Information please refer to the original WPC products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 this will be a better run on the 00z gfs….pv does not split through hr 129…not very amped either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 def more progressive this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 def more progressive this run Yes appears to be more south, better setup for transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 hr 144 steady snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 hr 150 surface along 95 and 850's north of city…heavy precepin area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ugly ice storm for areas just outside 95 this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 It was a late transfer this run, big improvement. NW areas never really get above freezing until after precip has ended. Nice front end dump followed by ice and ending as rain for almost everyone. Big problems for 287 corridor though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.