IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Okay down to business, 18z GFS. The phase is occurring way out west. Thinking this will be a big cutter. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Low pressure situated over Alabama/Mississippi hour 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well, it's a fully phased system by hour 144. 564dm heights up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well, it's a fully phased system by hour 144. 564dm heights up to NYC. Ahh well, that's that then. Galoshes at the ready!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hour 147, arctic high trying to hang on tough but losing out. Low over southern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hour 150 light over running snow begins. For now, the surface freezing line is east of JFK and the 850mb freezing line is up to about I-78 but I suspect very little snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 There is not nearly enough of a confluent flow north of us for this system to be as amped up as the models are showing at this range. In order to get good overrunning snows here you need the trough be similar to what the GFS is indicating, but the PV cannot be split and retrograding westward like it is suggesting. If that does occur this is certain to be a very warm storm especially aloft for most people in this area. You want to see the PV more sturdy and holding confluence over the Great Lakes and Northeast so that the moisture can overrun the cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Primary into southern Ohio at 153. I-287 NW is an ice storm. City and immediate western burbs a close call but probably rain. Long Island rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I know it's far out but basically all the models have this as a cutter now right? As of now Upton has western Nassau as snow on Tuesday and rain on Wednesday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hr 159 heavy rain KSWF south. Sussex County hanging onto ZR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hour 162 we're all heavy rain. Primary over central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Comically at hour 165 a costal pops right over the twin forks, very heavy rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It`s a rain storm for the coast , but its one OP run 7 days away . We just tracked a SB snowstorm that was on the LR for 10 days , it was locked it and guess what inside 5 days its cutting to ORD . Just chill , if you have the Ensembles this far out you use those . One OP run has one PV solution that its working off of , so there`s less confluence here . No big deal , But its one OP run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Close to 2" of rain easily. Total garbage run. The writing was on the wall early. At least with this storm I think we'll know by Friday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GEFS coming in, if it is not like the OP dont worry They're going to come in more amplified because you can already see through 120 hours that the height field over Canada has shifted west. This leads to less confluence over Southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. But nobody should be "worrying" over something 150+ hours away anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Some of the individual members are going nuts, sub 990mb phased bombs west of Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 They're going to come in more amplified because you can already see through 120 hours that the height field over Canada has shifted west. This leads to less confluence over Southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. But nobody should be "worrying" over something 150+ hours away anyway. Worrying i dont think so but in this gradient pattern having not much if any blocking in the north atlantic just made this setup ALOT more volatile. Im more interested in the following weekends possible big coastal (post mid-week). Yes this would be more widespread as far as the mid week system but i just think its going to end up warm/ rain for the coastal plain and areas east of I-95 east. Things can change for sure and they will but im not sold on this system totally john to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RIDE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN VASTLY DIFFERENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THIS FORECAST USES THE ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING THE TRACK. RIGHT NOW THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A PRIMARY LOW TO TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A SECONDARY LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS OR DELMARVA, SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z ECMWF. SNOW WOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WOULD CHANGE TO ICE AND RAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW DEPARTS. LEFT ICE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. THIS MATCHES THE APPROACH FROM WPC. RIGHT NOW TWO THINGS STAND OUT WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST IS HOW FAR SOUTH DOES THE PV EXTEND. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM. SECOND, IS HOW STRONG IS THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT COMES NORTHEAST. THE STRONGER THE ENERGY THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE A NORTHERN CLIMB WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OPERATIONAL RUNS WILL LIKELY FLIP AND FLOP MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A LOW PRESSURE WENT FAIRLY HIGH ON CHANCE POPS. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY BEFORE THOSE CAN BE IRONED OUT. LONG TERM...GAINES/MEOLA http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 There is not nearly enough of a confluent flow north of us for this system to be as amped up as the models are showing at this range. In order to get good overrunning snows here you need the trough be similar to what the GFS is indicating, but the PV cannot be split and retrograding westward like it is suggesting. If that does occur this is certain to be a very warm storm especially aloft for most people in this area. You want to see the PV more sturdy and holding confluence over the Great Lakes and Northeast so that the moisture can overrun the cold dome. Care to elaborate on the bolded part? I would think with less of a confluent flow north of us, the amped up solution seems to make more sense. On the 18z gfs it would appear there is less of a confluent zone to the north of us therefore making the flow more supportive of amplification. I would have presumed with strong confluence to our north, most likely in association with a better situated pv, that amplification of the s/w would be less likely as the speed divergence would promote a faster more progressive flow allowing the s/w to slip under our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS just spits out 1.61" of pure rain in NYC. 850mb temps. over 0C all the way, and up to 7C!. THK seems March like---in the 550dm range. Looks like a heavy load to haul to get us back to a snow or frozen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS just spits out 1.61" of pure rain in NYC. 850mb temps. over 0C all the way, and up to 7C!. THK seems March like---in the 550dm range. Looks like a heavy load to haul to get us back to a snow or frozen event. It could very easily show a blizzard on its next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 At the end of the day the solution thats desirable is for a weaker system to emerge out of the SE states. Confluence will only offer u so much resistance .A full u phased system has to cut. There will b secondary reflection and there is a CAD signature and would help if we secondary sooner . When and where will depenod on how far N the primary goes. The stronger it is out of the SE the longer it holds onA wound up system could get to buffalo and after a few inches of snow you would go to 50 like In early DecemberBut a weaker wave would die in the S Ohio valley and then the slp at Hatteras takes overI don't think u get those details until ur inside 3 or 4 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some of the individual members are going nuts, sub 990mb phased bombs west of Detroit. Which is why I strongly think this is going to cut. Where's the confluence to really keep this south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i agree things are getting ugly quick, i understand all the variables without good blocking but there are just too many warmer solutions coming out recently to not be very concerned about the first week or two of feb being a disaster for winter wx enthusiasts and it could be ugly well north of the metro area....ie alb central ne etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not going to hang my hat on a 18z run. I am just glad that the storm signal is still there. Models being too volatile. Wont be till the weekend, that we have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Meh, unless we see a drastic change the 500mb pattern and budding SE ridge is not going to allow for much except for maybe a brief ice/snow start...Still will keep an eye out, but we'd need to see some drastic changes in the PV orientation to see any kind of change. Now the one that follows will certainly have a better setup to play with, but that is too far out to speculate right now. Lets get to Monday already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Also want to add that a few days ago when the models were showing Wednesday to be a much colder storm, there was a hint of a pseudo block which helped push the PV farther SE, we've lost that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still a model eternity with this one, I wouldn't jump off a bridge yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Didn't the latest Euro solution just a few hours ago give NYC a lot of snow? I don't get all the panic over a GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's been noted that models frequently showed the systems in Feb 1994 being way too phased and cutting when in reality they were much weaker and un-phased resulting in multiple snow events. Doesn't mean things will trend the same for this storm, but it's something to keep in mind during the model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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