IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ooofe, the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks warm. The mean is still an offshore track south of the area but looks like lots of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 you cant just say that as a fact 7 days away. if i had to guess i'd agree with you (dont like the obvious lack of blocking), but just look at the ensemble spreads, there are still a lot of solutions on the table. Is nobody concerned about the fact that every storm has trended 100-300miles west within 80hrs? I don't see anyone East of 95 getting anything but rain based on model trends. This is an inland snowstorm for folks west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ooofe, the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks warm. The mean is still an offshore track south of the area but looks like lots of spread. Warm compared to what context? If the mean is still an offshore track wouldnt it look like the Euro and CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Lots of spread just means lots of uncertainty still and probably lots of different outcomes to follow in all of the runs the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What are the 750mb and surface temperatures during the event? Thanks. Also, any possibility of the current snow pack being retained until this event occurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Euro ensemble ticked a little further west which wouldn't be good for coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just saw the Ensembles , could not post , not what I wanted to see . You`re risk is you hold the Primary too long and the secondary is better for 40 N . Not happy with seeing that ensemble look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Euro ensemble ticked a little further west which wouldn't be good for coastal sections. Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_168.gif Yeah the mean verbatim is ice city for a lot of the area, but it's probably more of a result of wider spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just saw the Ensembles , could not post , not what I wanted to see . You`re risk is you hold the Primary too long and the secondary is better for 40 N . Not happy with seeing that ensemble look The hard pill to swallow is the Control run day 7 is as good as it gets , but its not the Ensembles , and that's what I trust 7 days out this is the problem we are going to have with no established blocking to help lock cold air in or atleast a favorable storm track with the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The hard pill to swallow is the Control run day 7 is as good as it gets , but its not the Ensembles , and that's what I trust 7 days out Do you have the snow map for the EPS control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 So far away lol. We are not going to be locked in on a solution for a few more days. In fact, maybe not until everything has been sampled. Stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah the mean verbatim is ice city for a lot of the area, but it's probably more of a result of wider spread. Yeah, at this range that is a very small difference between the ensemble and the OP. A few miles is going to make the difference between snow, sleet-freezing rain, and all rain.I would rather just go over to rain than get stuck in an ice pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Do you have the snow map for the EPS control run? Think i`m at my limit with maps , but the Center comes to Hatteras and goes to the BM . Its a great look . The ensemble look does secondary ,but for me when a southern branch feature comes out and there`s no blocking , it sometimes hangs on to the primary too long . ( sometimes ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 EPS Control had like over 20" in NJ, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 this is the problem we are going to have with no established blocking to help lock cold air in or atleast a favorable storm track with the PV I'd say any track is still possible, including the dreaded cutter or late re-developer. There will be a lot less room to work with without the favorable NAO. The more sheared and less consolidated the trough, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'd say any track is still possible, including the dreaded cutter or late re-developer. There will be a lot less room to work with without the favorable NAO. The more sheared and less consolidated the trough, the better. we will see over the weekend what happens. without blocking with this pattern it inherently makes me nervous being on the coastal plain. id much rather have a heavy rain than an ice threat any day during the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 we will see over the weekend what happens. without blocking with this pattern it inherently makes me nervous being on the coastal plain. id much rather have a heavy rain than an ice threat any day during the winter But any sleet or ice on 2/5 would bullet-proof our shrinking snow pack for the Day 10 potential snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'd say any track is still possible, including the dreaded cutter or late re-developer. There will be a lot less room to work with without the favorable NAO. The more sheared and less consolidated the trough, the better. The NAO is not the main issue, Its how much the -EPO drills the low level cold air, how the PV is positioned and how it interacts with the disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Impossible to know now what will happen, that high over NE is damn strong and its bound to hold in place longer than any model can see at this point although the GFS does already see the CAD signature which is impressive by GFS standards this far out...we want this thing to get going as far as possible, the faster it starts getting its act together the less time the high has to move out and the track would be more south and east. I'd also watch the Monday overrunning still even though the models mostly lost it or suppressed it at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Impossible to know now what will happen, that high over NE is damn strong and its bound to hold in place longer than any model can see at this point although the GFS does already see the CAD signature which is impressive by GFS standards this far out...we want this thing to get going as far as possible, the faster it starts getting its act together the less time the high has to move out and the track would be more south and east. I'd also watch the Monday overrunning still even though the models mostly lost it or suppressed it at 12Z. good points. models are known to underestimate CAD and the fact that this WILL be dense arctic air as well. probably wont have an idea until SB weekend. im more interested in the weekend event thereafter, it just looks to be a nice big Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Impossible to know now what will happen, that high over NE is damn strong and its bound to hold in place longer than any model can see at this point although the GFS does already see the CAD signature which is impressive by GFS standards this far out...we want this thing to get going as far as possible, the faster it starts getting its act together the less time the high has to move out and the track would be more south and east. I'd also watch the Monday overrunning still even though the models mostly lost it or suppressed it at 12Z. If the over running is sufficiently fast enough than you snow for a lot of the storm , the prob is once the primary gets to PITT 850`s and the surface are less than optimal . As it is 850`s are right now ( 156 to AC 168 to NYC 180 to AC ) just to show where the models sees that the secondary mayb fast enough that the flip is at the end and then back again . But its 7 days out , I would much rather it die in the Ohio Valley then into PENN . It wants to snow here this winter , so it maybe a case where we continue to get the breaks . the Control goes crazy . And the Ensembles have the day 10 storm at the BM . So the 2 pot storms are there . We may be at least getting close to the solution that a run to ORD is off the table and now the next 4 to 5 days are just the details . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Mt holly afd likes the 12z euro track. snow-ice-rain-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Preliminary HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 well the qpf queens will not have to worry about this southern juiced up system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 well the qpf queens will not have to worry about this southern juiced up system nope instead it will be rain/snow/ice concerns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The NOGAPS is similar to the GFS/Euro if not west...when you're beyond Day 5 and the NOGAPS agrees with or is west of the GFS/Euro it frequently means they are nowhere close to the correction solution yet and will be making big changes in the next 2 days...inside Day 5 it tends to be more a concern the GFS/Euro may not be far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The NOGAPS is similar to the GFS/Euro if not west...when you're beyond Day 5 and the NOGAPS agrees with or is west of the GFS/Euro it frequently means they are nowhere close to the correction solution yet and will be making big changes in the next 2 days...inside Day 5 it tends to be more a concern the GFS/Euro may not be far enough west. It cuts the storm to Detroit before popping a secondary low northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Are you measuring drifts, because that's the only way you have 4" I don't know about Brooklyn but we still have a nice snowpack here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The JMA looked like the ECMWF/GFS compromise. It has 1.75"+ QPF area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 before 18z GFS comes into time, people would be wise to realize this is one run about 7 days out so try not to drive yourselves crazy micro-analyzing every small detail.. there will be plenty of time for that come this weekend/monday if storms still looking possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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