WintersGrasp Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro snow maps show a foot or more for all of NNJ, and southern sections of NYC close to nothing, northern sections within the 12"+ Stop, its 8"+ for all 5 boroughs, read the map above please I was actually looking at the "snow depth" maps which show close to nothing for certain areas at the end of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 From your lips to God's ears. I have a feeling lots and lots of posts are going to be deleted and posters getting suspended as the event nears. It needs to be like the old days. "Storm Mode" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 its also 9 in Western Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This is not 1 and done lol think coast stands a better chance to cash in on the weekend storm after this with the p-type issues currently modeled at this time with the more wide spread mid week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Here comes the Control runs Day 11 storm right behind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 think coast stands a better chance to cash in on the weekend storm after this with the p-type issues currently modeled at this time with the more wide spread mid week system Way to early to worry about precip type , Look at Ensembles , If the SLP is south `` there`s plenty of cold air available . 7 days is just too far for an OP to look to for R/S line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Way to early to worry about precip type , Look at Ensembles , If the SLP is south `` there`s plenty of cold air available . 7 days is just too far for an OP to look to for R/S line I added that currently in there so it wont like I was "hugging" the R/S on a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I only wish this could have come this weekend instead of a few days later. Would have really screwed up the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Day 9-10 threat is real. Looks great for DC area currently. Miller A passes from deep south, off the NC coast and is sitting east of Ocean City, MD at hr 240. This one could be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big time storm signal on the GFS, GEFS, Euro, GGEM at this juncture. Ensembles looking good thus far. That's all we have...and it's better than most storms we track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, without a doubt, the specifics are not important. We basically want the storm to redevelop and bomb out over water and pass close to the benchmark. Details will obviously change even within 2 days of the event, let alone 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 can you go furthur on the day 10/11 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 12z GGEM is actually very heavy ZR or IP at hour 174 for NNJ/NYC. Like I said, the 12z ECMWF is a slightly less extreme version of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think we will have less rain changeovers due to the low level cold air and if 850's flip warm it might be a IP or ZR, also note the cold ocean, unlike Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 FWIW the 12z GGEM ensembles look more like the 12z GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I only wish this could have come this weekend instead of a few days later. Would have really screwed up the Super Bowl.didnt the farmers almanac say if it wasn't Super Bowl Sunday it would be a few days later that pretty wild how they can pin it down like that from a few months ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think we will have less rain changeovers due to the low level cold air and if 850's flip warm it might be a IP or ZR, also note the cold ocean, unlike Dec This has the potential to be a very nasty situation inland and even in the city if either the coastal is too weak or develops too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 FWIW the 12z GGEM ensembles look more like the 12z GFS OP. Fine. It's always an overamped model with over-amped ensembles too. Watch the GEFS and the Euro ensembles. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 SSTs off the coast are in the lower to mid 30's, I dont know if it will have a significant impact but it promotes less precip issues on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is nobody concerned about the fact that every storm has trended 100-300miles west within 80hrs? I don't see anyone East of 95 getting anything but rain based on model trends. This is an inland snowstorm for folks west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is nobody concerned about the fact that every storm has trended 100-300miles west within 80hrs? I don't see anyone East of 95 getting anything but rain based on model trends. This is an inland snowstorm for folks west of 95. Way different set-up, although that's possible, I would not worried about the 'trend' as this is a completely different pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 SSTs off the coast are in the lower to mid 30's, I dont know if it will have a significant impact but it promotes less precip issues on LI It would be a strong low/mid level southerly flow if the low cuts west of us. That wouldn't save us, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is nobody concerned about the fact that every storm has trended 100-300miles west within 80hrs? I don't see anyone East of 95 getting anything but rain based on model trends. This is an inland snowstorm for folks west of 95. It depends on the upper air pattern, some models are the opposite I think in this case because if the -EPO and low level cold air push from the PV is slightly stronger, we may see all snow, its the small details, look at 12/8/13 where the cold air was hesitant to budge and Philly got 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It would be a strong low/mid level southerly flow if the low cuts west of us. That wouldn't save us, unfortunately. Like we have said since winter started...any winds due east or south of that means a changeover for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 When someone like that comes in and trolls the thread, wait for me or Sickman to deal with it and don't answer. More posts just make the problem worse. He's been dealt with. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Gentlemen, and I use that term more loosely with some than others lol, the changeover occurs because of the warming in the mid-levels due to the strong WAA and track of the primary low. We get saved by the coastal because it flips the winds back out of the northeast. It has zero to due with SST's or living on Long Island. Inland stays colder longer because that's where the best CAD occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Let's be honest, for the most part this winter we haven't had to deal with the issue of a rain/snow line. Not that I want to have to deal with that, but storms that we do have an area that is on the line usually produce much more QPF and are the one that can dump 1.5"+ of it. Yes, some areas could get 2" of snow and mainly rain, but others, given the setup is great, could get over 20". I'll take my chances! Especially considering we've had many many days of cold and not nearly enough snow to match the persistence of the cold ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This should answer that question: I don't understand why EURO 00Z showed no snow and the next run now shows huge amounts where there was none before. Feb 8 looks more similiar on both runs. What changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 JMA has 2mT go from 25degs. on the morning of Feb. 04 to 40degs. on the 5th. as precip really starts. SE Ridge bulges up with center to our west. Temps. fall back thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't understand why EURO 00Z showed no snow and the next run now shows huge amounts where there was none before. Feb 8 looks more similiar on both runs. What changed? The biggest player in all this is the Polar Vortex that is a result of the persistent -EPO. If that flexes it's muscle enough it can overwhelm the other unfavorable indices like a +NAO and -PNA. The key is to look at the Polar Vortex orientation, placement/positioning, strength, etc. Go back and read some of earthlight's posts about this and it will become clear why there are fluctuations run to run like we are currently seeing. All aspects of this Vortex feature will not likely be nailed down in the modeling until a day or 2 at most prior to the storm. I'd say the thing to do is to follow all the ensembles and gauge their consistency at this range and for the next few days. So far the ensembles are all pretty favorable for all the different models as far as supporting a snowier solution and have been impressively consistent for days already. Long way to go and patience with each model run is encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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