MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like the Ukie and GGEM also trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS MOS numbers show that LGA would never change over...32/22 when snow starts but of course model does not resolve wet bulbing so it still shows 32 at 10Z when it would probably drop down to 27-28...winds are then NE rest of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think it is safe to say that NW of city especially north of I-287 is going to be creamed with snow and hopefully very little ice at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM just through 48hrs.. ( more to come) Nice event shaping up for the interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Totals by 60 hr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Totals by 60 hr.. What kind of measurement are they using there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What kind of measurement are they using there? Keep in mind that includes snow after 12z today which would include today's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What kind of measurement are they using there? Inches x 10. Intuitive, right? And IMBY, the NAM is mostly ZR, so that snow is primarily from today. If GFS/UK/GEM win out, this map is conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Im going with 3-4" total for LI proper between the front end dump and end as snow. Although the models have cooled a good bit i still think we change to a plain rain for a period of time wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What kind of measurement are they using there? so what does those grey shadings indicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 so what does those grey shadings indicate? 12-18" of snow in total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Inches x 10. Intuitive, right? And IMBY, the NAM is mostly ZR, so that snow is primarily from today. If GFS/UK/GEM win out, this map is conservative. Thanks! so what does those grey shadings indicate? You multiply the number by .10 so it would be roughly 12-18 inches, depending on which shade of grey you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Im going with 3-4" total for LI proper between the front end dump and end as snow. Although the models have cooled a good bit i still think we change to a plain rain for a period of time wednesday Models like the GFS think LI is an ocean and typically keeps the BL too warm, even the GFS barely has any rain for us, the rain we get will freeze. I think we get a brief period of drizzle. Winds are ENE to NNE, that's not supportive of a torch and rain situation. GFS, which is typically the warmest model, has over 5" for all of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Im going with 3-4" total for LI proper between the front end dump and end as snow. Although the models have cooled a good bit i still think we change to a plain rain for a period of time wednesday I don't know about that rain at least for te north shore of Nassau. As long as the flow is ne we stay sleet and Ice this reminds me of the 07 sleet fests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean looks more like the RGEM. Snow to start then a flip to ZR for the I-80 corridor. North of that it's all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GGEM has near 20mm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 12z GFS text outputs show roughly 0.20"-0.40" of ice accretion for the I-80 corridor with 0.19" at LGA. HPN and SWF are all snow, but poor ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 12z GFS text outputs show roughly 0.20"-0.40" of ice accretion for the I-80 corridor with 0.19" at LGA. HPN and SWF are all snow, but poor ratios. what are the total snow accum for HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GGEM has near 20mm for NYC. Total precip or as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm not going to post the 12z NAM text outputs because I don't want to create a panic, but lets just say it's horrific with LGA coming in on the lower end with just under a half inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 what are the total snow accum for HPN? Roughly 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Total precip or as snow? Snow. Total recip is much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Roughly 8" Alright sounds great... I am 10 miles NW of HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm not going to post the 12z NAM text outputs because I don't want to create a panic, but lets just say it's horrific with LGA coming in on the lower end with just under a half inch of ice. Yikes and I was planning on flying back in to LGA that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yikes and I was planning on flying back in to LGA that morning. It's on the warmer side of the guidance, I wouldn't worry all that much at this point. The consensus right now is that any ZR would be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS P-types have LGA at 5" of snow followed by .32 ZR and then a dusting of snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is crazy... CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-032300-/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140204T0000Z//O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-947 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THISEVENING......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...* LOCATIONS...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW TODAY. POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ANDICE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES TODAY. 5 TO10 INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO A HALF ANINCH...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGHTHE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAYNIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROMSOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's on the warmer side of the guidaI tnce, I wouldn't worry all that much at this point. The consensus right now is that any ZR would be brief. I think most will be frozen north of JFK we have to wait for this storm to exit for the models to pick up how stong the low level cold air will be. Esp the Higher Res models. I think a Combo of euro and gfs should be used untill 0z tonight. Also the Canadian always seems to be warm with these events, so im not sure how much I trusts its precip type map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is crazy... Time to get the milk and bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.