earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Take a look here Can't post those maps here..but again that is the 850 mb 0c line...not 925mb. The 850 0c line is farther north than 925mb which suggests the warm layer is closer to there and not directly in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Timing since I know it will be asked. Snow moves in shortly after 06z City taints between 12z and 15z Snow moves out around 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Timing since I know it will be asked 23 times by sferic Corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS is colder? Stunning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now the question becomes is the gfs still trending or does it flip back warmer by tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS suggest very limited IP/ZR for Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 6-8" north of 78. A bit less south of that. LI is 4-6" roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS is colder? Stunning... There's probably 4-6" everywhere on this run before anyone changes over. And then it never gets most of NYC above freezing, so there would likely be a nasty ice region perhaps even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is almost all frozen for the coast. We warm a bit between 12z and 15z, but winds are ENE-NNE throughout the entire storm. Snow maps have at least 5" out here. More for the city and west. GFS underpredicts the low level cold so wouldn't be surprised if it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now the question becomes is the gfs still trending or does it flip back warmer by tomorrow? The Euro is dominating now. Way more, if not all, frozen for most except the coast South of Monmouth County, etc. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now the question becomes is the gfs still trending or does it flip back warmer by tomorrow? Most likely slightly colder, especially for the Mesoscale Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Newark is completely frozen through 54 hours...any warm layer is brief..soundings are pretty nuts. Snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS is colder? Stunning... There's probably 4-6" everywhere on this run before anyone changes over. And then it never gets most of NYC above freezing, so there would likely be a nasty ice region perhaps even in NYC. GFS is almost all frozen for the coast. We warm a bit between 12z and 15z, but winds are ENE-NNE throughout the entire storm. Snow maps have at lease 5" out here. More for the city and west. Absolutely surreal. Snowing heavily right now and now this has trended back to our favor. And more this weekend.. Crazy exciting week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 have to go with the colder solutions right now anyone north of a Trenton Through Perth Amboy - through Staten Island and points northeast line of their will remain mostly frozen - probably at least several inches of snow with an ice mix just north of that line and all snow north of I -78 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS suggests that ZR would be limited as most areas probably flip from snow to sleet and then back to snow before ending. If that's the case then we dodged a serious bullet up this way. The RGEM is not as generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The Euro is dominating now. Way more, if not all, frozen for most except the coast North of Monmouth County, etc. IMHO. I agree just wondering if we end up with mostly snow or mostly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Newark is completely frozen through 54 hours...any warm layer is brief..soundings are pretty nuts. Snow bomb. The soundings for HPN is crazy too. Nearly Zero mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is almost all frozen for the coast. We warm a bit between 12z and 15z, but winds are ENE-NNE throughout the entire storm. Snow maps have at least 5" out here. More for the city and west. GFS underpredicts the low level cold so wouldn't be surprised if it's colder. The city proper is 5" + on this run. It's colder. Euro is winning. All in all, however, if we look back at about 150 hrs or so in, this storm was REMARKABLY well modeled versus many of its predecessors. Easier set up, I presume, for the models to handle (except for the temp/precip type nuances). NOW, let's hope that this holds true for Snomageddon this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Newark is completely frozen through 54 hours...any warm layer is brief..soundings are pretty nuts. Snow bomb. Looks like 5-7" of snow from what I can tell??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I agree just wondering if we end up with mostly snow or mostly ice. I think we flip to IP/ZR anywhere south of the NY/NJ border. 925 is trying to find it's way in and i think we get a GENEROUS front end dump and then IP/ZR N of 78. I THINK we may dodge a serious ice storm bullet N of 80 if it can stay snow. I'm praying. I have a huge client meeting on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The city proper is 5" + on this run. It's colder. Euro is winning. All in all, however, if we look back at about 150 hrs or so in, this storm was REMARKABLY well modeled versus many of its predecessors. Easier set up, I presume, for the models to handle (except for the temp/precip type nuances). NOW, let's hope that this holds true for Snomageddon this weekend... I think we get it lol. GFS has trended SE but even so, I still think it's BL temps are too warm (for here on the island at least), the low resolution makes it see Long Island as water. And when the models begin to pick up on the thick snow pack here, they may even get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I lived in Delaware County in 2010 for the back to back storms that brought 50" in my town (Media PA). THIS week is as, if not more, exciting than that was. I know a lot of folks up here missed out on that I'm hoping that this week is some sweet redemptoin for a tough February not too long ago. This stuff is way too fun. And I WISH i had a forum like this when I was younger and just getting into the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think we get it lol. GFS has trended SE but even so, I still think it's BL temps are too warm (for here on the island at least), the low resolution makes it see Long Island as water. No need to make fun. I'm an excited weenie. You're right overdone. If you can't make fun of yourself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No need to make fun. I'm an excited weenie. You're right overdone. If you can't make fun of yourself... I was meaning to making fun at all. Sorry if you took it the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The European has been the coldest of all the guidance . I am more interested to see it at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The European has been the coldest of all the guidance . I am more interested to see it at 1 Am I way off stating that the QPF has come down some. Looks like .75-1 north west of the city. I thought I remember seeing a lot more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's kind of crazy that the gfs is not too far off from mostly snow around here, which is a lot better than ice and I'm sure we'll all take another 6-10" over a quarter to a half inch of ice. The Euro has been doing well again so we'll see where it goes.Chances of it even going to rain though are decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RGEM at 45 hours...it went notably cooler at the end of its run from 06X....the snow line was up near Danbury on the prior run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Am I way off stating that the QPF has come down some. Looks like .75-1 north west of the city. I thought I remember seeing a lot more? Not sure , but this has is def colder than 48 hours ago , so focusing on the trasnsfer and CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I counted 6-7 hours of freezing rain for the I-80 corridor on the 12z GGEM after the nice front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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