IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The NAM is a ton of IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 as long as the sfc low redevelops to our south i don't see anyone west of the city going above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just wait for this event to finish and stick w/ the Euro. Didn't we all see the NAM wildly swing yesterday to a remarkably snowier solution within one 6 hour run? Euro has been on it's game, and I'm riding it for the next event as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 as long as the sfc low redevelops to our south i don't see anyone west of the city going above 32 Deeper snowcover , potentially undercut guidance by a few ? ( which is all the marginal areas will need ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 as long as the sfc low redevelops to our south i don't see anyone west of the city going above 32 Strongly agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Strongly agree.. hires_ptype_acc_nyc_17.png Wow! There could be at least 15" of snowcover by Wednesday for Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Strongly agree.. hires_ptype_acc_nyc_17.png NAM thermal profiles are usually pretty spot on around here. would you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 My concern has been building now for a few days regarding the potential for a significant ice storm a long the I-80 corridor and points just north. More often than not, WAA is under modeled. I believe some models could very well see ice storm warnings for the first time since 2009. Maybe we get lucky and see more sleet than freezing rain, but these setups are notorious for low level CAD while the mid and upper levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY947 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT TODAY......SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LONGISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-032300-/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140204T0000Z//O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-947 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THISEVENING......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...* LOCATIONS...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW TODAY. POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW AND ICE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES TODAY. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Love the snow totals for the next few days. But like everybody else, I'm really starting to get concerned about the ice. Hopefully it's a night thing and not anything I would have to commute in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM has 12 mm of snow for NYC on Wednesday before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM has 12z mm of snow for NYC on Wednesday before the changeover. Wow-that's pretty cold. I don't think much of the snow even here will melt, because temps shouldn't get much above 35 even at the coast on a NE wind. We could have 10" of cement by the time it's over for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM has 12 mm of snow for NYC on Wednesday before the changeover. Is that 12mm of snow or liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Through 24 hours the GFS is already a tick southeast with the height field and confluent flow well to our north over SE Canada. These changes aloft are going to continue to have small effects on the eventual storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It would be liquid equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is that 12mm of snow or liquid? Snow/ liquid equiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Snow through hour 45. As mentioned earlier the PV/confluent entity being farther south is bound to force a quicker transfer and colder airmass initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Overall this is probably still going to be snow to rain/ZR for NYC-on east and 95 N&W looking at a nasty ice storm. But john is right it is a tick southeast compared to earlier guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 850 0c line is 50 miles south and the surface low is transferring to the coast at hour 48. 850 0c line is still South of Long Island with at least .5" liquid fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At 51 hours the 850 0c line is still straddling I-78. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It would be liquid equiv. Thanks. 12mm snow wouldn't be too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 By hour 51 the 925mb warm layer is up to 287 in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS is picking up on the low level cold now...32 F from TTN to Brooklyn through the entire storm. Anywhere NW that has frozen precipitation for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 54 the city is ZR, surface freezing line right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 By hour 51 the 925mb warm layer is up to 287 in NW NJ. It doesn't get north of Staten Island's latitude..the warm layer is closer to 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 57 the temps crash back to the coast, we end as some snow. This would be close to the best case scenario as ZR would be relatively limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Would not want to be in upper bucks county PA if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 54 the city is ZR, surface freezing line right over NYC. Wow-this could be a very nasty snow/icestorm even for parts of the city. The winds never veer to a warm direction either so it's quite plausible that many people never make it above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At 48 hours forecast soundings show barely snow still in NYC and very heavy snow at that...here is the QPF through that point. This is 4-8" in NYC before a changeover to sleet and freezing rain..more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Think KNYC gets to 30 at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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