IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 FWIW the 4k NAM looked significantly colder than the OP through hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seems like a colder run, but it would have to take steps like this every single run to get it where we need it. As of now, it's just a matter of how much sleet we get compared to the rain Who is we? This is VERY close to a big hit for NYC metro as well upfront. Euro is even colder than this run of the GFS and has been for quite some time. Didn't we all just watch what unfolded for tomorrow's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 WPC already honking the ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Still an all snow event on the GFS for the great NW.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Still an all snow event on the GFS for the great NW.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ This is most likely your storm. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is most likely your storm. Congrats! Ill believe it when I see it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro basically holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS MOS output at LGA/EWR more or less would suggest this never goes over to anything but FZRA or PL...its 33/25 when snow starts and winds never get more easterly than 040-060 that would likely never warm the surface above 32...maybe not even above 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Watch for late Tuesday/Wednesday. I have never seen our region under a concurrent Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Watch before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY410 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT TODAY......SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LONGISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-031715-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z//O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-410 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THISEVENING......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONSOF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW TODAY. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAYNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES TODAY. 2 TO 4INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF A TENTH TO QUARTEROF AN INCH OF ICE...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES TODAY.* TIMING...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO ALLSNOW AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY ATTIMES...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOONHOURS TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND MIX WITH ANDCHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow NWS has my area in Bergen County under a Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" of snow and up to a half inch of ice for Tues night/Wed. What an epic weenie stretch this week is turning out to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Verbatim what does the euro have for snowfall in ewr on wed, 3-4" before the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If the weekend storm works out , Some places will see a Winter Storm Warning 3 times inside the next 7 days . Unprecedented . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow NWS has my area in Bergen County under a Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" of snow and up to a half inch of ice for Tues night/Wed. What an epic weenie stretch this week is turning out to be! Upton is all over it. Here in Southern Sussex, i'm under an Advisory for today with a 2-4" point and click (already have that) and just a HWO for Tues night/Wed. Sussex should be part of Upton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow NWS has my area in Bergen County under a Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" of snow and up to a half inch of ice for Tues night/Wed. What an epic weenie stretch this week is turning out to be! Same here. This is going to be some winter weather duration. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Same here. This is going to be some winter weather duration. Sent from my HTC PH39100 We will have more snow this week than Sochi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Any chance of All snow tomorrow night or even change to ice, bit no liquid for KJFK? Looking better or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 anybody know when was the last time we had a Winter Storm Warning in effect for a current event and a Winter Storm Watch for another event in place at the same time ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus41.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 anybody know when was the last time we had a Winter Storm Warning in effect for a current event and a Winter Storm Watch for another event in place at the same time ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus41.KOKX.html February, 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Any chance of All snow tomorrow night or even change to ice, bit no liquid for KJFK? Looking better or worse? its trending towards mainly snow and ice for the metro but not all the way there yet- this current storm only helps keep the lower levels / surface cooler - to what extent we don't know for sure yet http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 its trending towards mainly snow and ice for the metro but not all the way there yet- this current storm only helps keep the lower levels / surface cooler - to what extent we don't know for sure yet http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr I'm thinking maybe a few inches of snow/sleet for coastal sections before rain, and 4-8" inland with sleet/freezing rain. It might trend north a little more-just look for far today's storm trended in 48 hours. Luckily it shouldn't get that warm so much of the snow won't melt where there's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking maybe a few inches of snow/sleet for coastal sections before rain, and 4-8" inland with sleet/freezing rain. It might trend north a little more-just look for far today's storm trended in 48 hours. Luckily it shouldn't get that warm so much of the snow won't melt where there's rain. The setup is different with that one compared to this one. The one for midweek is more of a miller B storm with a secondary while this is more of an energetic shortwave/disturbance with no secondary. How fast it transfers and where exactly it transfers will be the key for this storm in terms of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking maybe a few inches of snow/sleet for coastal sections before rain, and 4-8" inland with sleet/freezing rain. It might trend north a little more-just look for far today's storm trended in 48 hours. Luckily it shouldn't get that warm so much of the snow won't melt where there's rain. Well, it is possible it would be a mostly rain event, the cold air I think is going to over preform. Looking at the Euro, the worst the winds get is ENE, we never really even get an east wind or ESE wind going. Most of storm it has winds out of the northeast which is not a torch scenario for the island. I think we can see anywhere from 3-8" Wednesday followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain, and then light rain to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone know what the euro showed down to western monmouth for Tuesday nite storm? tHANKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone know what the euro showed down to western monmouth for Tuesday nite storm? tHANKS From my maps 2 - 4 or so before mix/change to rain. This one will now have a decent snowpack to hold in the cold a bit longer. Watch for guidance later today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Something to consider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Something to consider This map is for the current storm.. 0z NAM ( last night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This map is for the current storm.. 0z NAM ( last night)I think he meant that the snow cover will keep the low level cold longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think he meant that the snow cover will keep the low level cold longer. People always overestimate this. It really doesn't work that way. It's all about track and wind direction and which levels of the atmosphere end up warming....this rings true especially for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nam looks ugly...basically a ton of heavy sleet/freezing rain city on west by 12z Wednesday..surface right at freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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