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February 4th-6th Overunning & Possible Coastal Threat


IsentropicLift

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Seems like a colder run, but it would have to take steps like this every single run to get it where we need it. As of now, it's just a matter of how much sleet we get compared to the rain

Who is we?  This is VERY close to a big hit for NYC metro as well upfront.  Euro is even colder than this run of the GFS and has been for quite some time.  Didn't we all just watch what unfolded for tomorrow's event?

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-031715-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
410 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW TODAY. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES TODAY. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF A TENTH TO QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF ICE...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES TODAY.

* TIMING...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO ALL
SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

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Wow NWS has my area in Bergen County under a Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" of snow and up to a half inch of ice for Tues night/Wed. What an epic weenie stretch this week is turning out to be!

Upton is all over it.  Here in Southern Sussex, i'm under an Advisory for today with a 2-4" point and click (already have that) and just a HWO for Tues night/Wed.  Sussex should be part of Upton!

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Any chance of All snow tomorrow night or even change to ice, bit no liquid for KJFK? Looking better or worse?

its trending towards mainly snow and ice for the metro but not all the way there yet- this current storm only helps keep the lower levels / surface cooler - to what extent we don't know for sure yet

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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its trending towards mainly snow and ice for the metro but not all the way there yet- this current storm only helps keep the lower levels / surface cooler - to what extent we don't know for sure yet

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

I'm thinking maybe a few inches of snow/sleet for coastal sections before rain, and 4-8" inland with sleet/freezing rain. It might trend north a little more-just look for far today's storm trended in 48 hours. Luckily it shouldn't get that warm so much of the snow won't melt where there's rain.

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I'm thinking maybe a few inches of snow/sleet for coastal sections before rain, and 4-8" inland with sleet/freezing rain. It might trend north a little more-just look for far today's storm trended in 48 hours. Luckily it shouldn't get that warm so much of the snow won't melt where there's rain.

The setup is different with that one compared to this one. The one for midweek is more of a miller B storm with a secondary while this is more of an energetic shortwave/disturbance with no secondary. How fast it transfers and where exactly it transfers will be the key for this storm in terms of frozen precip. 

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I'm thinking maybe a few inches of snow/sleet for coastal sections before rain, and 4-8" inland with sleet/freezing rain. It might trend north a little more-just look for far today's storm trended in 48 hours. Luckily it shouldn't get that warm so much of the snow won't melt where there's rain.

 

Well, it is possible it would be a mostly rain event, the cold air I think is going to over preform. Looking at the Euro, the worst the winds get is ENE, we never really even get an east wind or ESE wind going. Most of storm it has winds out of the northeast which is not a torch scenario for the island. I think we can see anywhere from 3-8" Wednesday followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain, and then light rain to finish.

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Anyone know what the euro showed down to western monmouth for Tuesday nite storm? tHANKS

 

From my maps 2 - 4 or so before mix/change to rain.  This one will now have a decent snowpack to hold in the cold a bit longer.  Watch for guidance later today/tomorrow.

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I think he meant that the snow cover will keep the low level cold longer.

People always overestimate this. It really doesn't work that way. It's all about track and wind direction and which levels of the atmosphere end up warming....this rings true especially for coastal areas

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