SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If we end up getting a snow pack tomorrow that could screw with things as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If we end up getting a snow pack tomorrow that could screw with things as well I have never been a believer that snow pack appreciably changes p-type in a marginal situation. Last Sunday night temperatures at KFRG shot up nine degrees in one hour with snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JMA is mostly rain, and tons of it. NM misread map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If we end up getting a snow pack tomorrow that could screw with things as well that is true as well, but tmagan does bring up a good point as well snowgoose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I have never been a believer that snow pack appreciably changes p-type in a marginal situation. Last Sunday night temperatures at KFRG shot up nine degrees in one hour with snow on the ground. I agree 100%. That theory is brought up so much and is overrated. Also, I think it was don or uncle that posted numbers before that the coldest temps have occurred more often than not without significant snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS wants nothing to do with the really cold solutions like the Euro. Concerning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS wants nothing to do with the really cold solutions like the Euro. Concerning? nope EURO notoriously performs better with southern stream systems and GFS plays catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I have never been a believer that snow pack appreciably changes p-type in a marginal situation. Last Sunday night temperatures at KFRG shot up nine degrees in one hour with snow on the ground. Temps can still rise yes. But the models seeing the snow pack will definitely reflect in colder surface solutions. FRG shot up nine degrees with a coastal front that came in from the south. There is no southerly wind component in this storm, except maybe early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 nope EURO notoriously performs better with southern stream systems and GFS plays catch up GFS already latched onto the idea so right now it has nothing to do with the southern stream. GFS is similar to the Euro in placement of the LP (maybe a tad north), GFS is just warmer at the surface, that has nothing to do with the southern stream. The coarser resolution of the GFS is picking up on the marine layer too much. ENE wind is not a torch for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS already latched onto the idea so right now it has nothing to do with the southern stream. GFS is similar to the Euro in placement of the LP (maybe a tad north), GFS is just warmer at the surface, that has nothing to do with the southern stream. The coarser resolution of the GFS is picking up on the marine layer too much. ENE wind is not a torch for here. im just saying typically the EURO is better in these situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 im just saying typically the EURO is better in these situations From farther out, yes it is. Now we're within 100 hours and GFS and Euro are similar. I'm just saying the reason the temps are warmer on the GFS have nothing to do with the fact that the Euro is better at handling the southern stream. More a result in the coarse resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z NAM is a major ice storm NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z NAM is a major ice storm NW of I-95. sounds like nothing has changed with the mid week storm. snow-rain for NYC and LI I suppose after a few inches of snow to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS keeps ticking south and east with the PV each run..will eventually have an impact in forcing a quicker coastal transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z GFS heavy over running snow hour 57. Surface hanging right over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 hr 54 1012 in eastern ky…light snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At 54, the GFS is starting to look a bit colder for areas that are very marginal (a la the Euro...)... See if that extrapolates out during the next few frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The isobars are baggier down near Ocean City. This is getting closer for Monmouth, NYC, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 nice over running snows here..hr57 hr 60 surface is cold…ice/sleet euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 60 very heavy snow, except rain on Long Island and south of 78. ZR in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Solid snow hit even for NYC at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Surface low redeveloping south of Long Island now and heading towards Nantucket. Pretty classic track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 63 ZR north of I-80, 66 same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 60 very heavy snow, except rain on Long Island and south of 78. ZR in central PA. It's tainted all the way up to BDR at that hour with the 925mb warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro is King and today is proving it. MAJOR steps towards the Euro on this GFS run. COLD and snowier/icier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 North of 78 4-8" front end dump and west of NYC. City east and south of 78 much less. Major ice storm for the I+80 corridor and points just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's tainted all the way up to BDR at that hour with the 925mb warm layer. kfwn def snow at 60 hr http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfwn&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h60&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's tainted all the way up to BDR at that hour with the 925mb warm layer. Ah yes, didn't see that sneaky layer. Probably sleet then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's really a remarkable trend colder versus 18z. It's a huge step towards the Euro just as today's event has been w/ the Euro. Def. handling the US models in this pattern as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seems like a colder run, but it would have to take steps like this every single run to get it where we need it. As of now, it's just a matter of how much sleet we get compared to the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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