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February 4th-6th Overunning & Possible Coastal Threat


IsentropicLift

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This has the potential to be one where they come close to nothing if everything goes wrong, we don't often see events that are all snow at BOS and all rain at NYC but this is as close as it gets...12/27/97 is a possible analog at least as far as how they were all snow up there and we were rain here, the overall upper level setup is not exactly the same though.

Look at the upper air setup of Feb. 23, 1994.

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This has trended colder over the last 48 hours , you guys have to let this play out . The euro is the coldest of all the guidance

And NO one is out of the woods . The guidance is continuing to come to a colder solution. It's just one of those years IMO.

AND IT AIN'T DONE YET

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How much for monmouth cty to NYC on this storm?

Lol ur great. We get 10 to 12 tomorrow Can't u just enjoy that ? JK. It's not done trending. Give this 24 hours to get some

More agreement with the other models. We are in a dicey spot for wed, need another step down ,

80 n is a lock

78 n is close

195 n eeeeshhh. , like i said need 1 more step bud

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How much for monmouth cty to NYC on this storm?

Euro gives us 7" but its the only piece of guidance showing any snow down here per 12z runs. That doesn't mean it ain't right but I'd rather see 10" tomorrow then have the northern folks get 10" on weds to keep every one in the fun. I see 1 - 2" of slop at best here on weds.

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Has the euro sometimes confused snow with sleet ? That seems possible considering it gives us nearly as much snow as NW areas that I'd expect to get 3-4x us in this type of setup with a storm so close to us

Yes.  It is counting most of the sleet at a 10:1 ratio.

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CAD is also undermodeled, especially by the GFS (and since it thinks LI is in the middle of the Atlantic due to the coarse resolution). I expect even here, temps will struggle go above freezing with out a surface south vector component. I'm siding withe colder ECMWF solution, maybe even colder than that.

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CAD is also undermodeled, especially by the GFS (and since it thinks LI is in the middle of the Atlantic due to the coarse resolution). I expect even here, temps will struggle go above freezing with out a surface south vector component. I'm siding withe colder ECMWF solution, maybe even colder than that.

 

Yup. This may create a dangerous situation for Wednesday. Even though the WAA is somewhat under modeled. The CAD is also somewhat under modeled even more so. At this rate, this may come down to nowcasting. 

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