ag3 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This has the potential to be one where they come close to nothing if everything goes wrong, we don't often see events that are all snow at BOS and all rain at NYC but this is as close as it gets...12/27/97 is a possible analog at least as far as how they were all snow up there and we were rain here, the overall upper level setup is not exactly the same though. Look at the upper air setup of Feb. 23, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Let's take into account the Snow cover from tomorrow's storm. Yeah somewhat but the way I see it is if the wind direction is more northerly or northeasterly then we'll end up colder/more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is Feb. 23, 1994 repeat. NYC had 4.5" of snow. Then sleet and then ended with .25"-.50" of rain. The upper air charts are very close. It's so close, it's insane. It's almost a carbon copy. How did I miss that? Anyway, very good OBS.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is very cold, almost all snow for even NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i think this will be 90% frozen for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This has trended colder over the last 48 hours , you guys have to let this play out . The euro is the coldest of all the guidance And NO one is out of the woods . The guidance is continuing to come to a colder solution. It's just one of those years IMO. AND IT AIN'T DONE YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How much for monmouth cty to NYC on this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is very cold, almost all snow for even NYC.Well this day is going well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is 12-15" for both events combined at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How much for monmouth cty to NYC on this storm? Lol ur great. We get 10 to 12 tomorrow Can't u just enjoy that ? JK. It's not done trending. Give this 24 hours to get some More agreement with the other models. We are in a dicey spot for wed, need another step down , 80 n is a lock 78 n is close 195 n eeeeshhh. , like i said need 1 more step bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 any indications on possible snow amounts or precip amounts for the area. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is very cold, almost all snow for even NYC. When has Dr. No become so friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is 12-15" for both events combined at 10:1 Geez. Hopefully the Euro's finally gotten a clue this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABE SnowObserver Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 When has Dr. No become so friendly. This is the first time I ever laughed out loud reading these posts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice trends on this one although it appears at this point more mix/ice than snow for points south of the city. Lets hope the trends continue. Tomorrows snowcover can only help hold in the cold at the surface, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro has everyone with over 12" snowpack Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I have a flight coming into LGA Wednesday morning. About what time would this start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I have a flight coming into LGA Wednesday morning. About what time would this start? After midnight so the worst of it is Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How much for monmouth cty to NYC on this storm? Euro gives us 7" but its the only piece of guidance showing any snow down here per 12z runs. That doesn't mean it ain't right but I'd rather see 10" tomorrow then have the northern folks get 10" on weds to keep every one in the fun. I see 1 - 2" of slop at best here on weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Has the euro sometimes confused snow with sleet ? That seems possible considering it gives us nearly as much snow as NW areas that I'd expect to get 3-4x us in this type of setup with a storm so close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Has the euro sometimes confused snow with sleet ? That seems possible considering it gives us nearly as much snow as NW areas that I'd expect to get 3-4x us in this type of setup with a storm so close to us Yes. It is counting most of the sleet at a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 4k NAM has heavy snow in NYC by 06z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4k NAM has heavy snow in NYC by 06z Wed EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS looks warmer than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nasty ice storm between I-80 and I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro ensembles still colder slp does in WV. Secondary off AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS looks warmer than 12z. You have a primary surface high over the Continental Divide, not a recipe for heavy snow over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 JMA is mostly rain, and tons of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 CAD is also undermodeled, especially by the GFS (and since it thinks LI is in the middle of the Atlantic due to the coarse resolution). I expect even here, temps will struggle go above freezing with out a surface south vector component. I'm siding withe colder ECMWF solution, maybe even colder than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 CAD is also undermodeled, especially by the GFS (and since it thinks LI is in the middle of the Atlantic due to the coarse resolution). I expect even here, temps will struggle go above freezing with out a surface south vector component. I'm siding withe colder ECMWF solution, maybe even colder than that. Yup. This may create a dangerous situation for Wednesday. Even though the WAA is somewhat under modeled. The CAD is also somewhat under modeled even more so. At this rate, this may come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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