Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hr 72 rain snow line runs i-80... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hour 72 snow north of 80, Surface running a long 95, lounge of IP/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 hr 72 rain snow line runs i-80... Most of Western NJ south of 80 and north of TTN is ZR at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nasty ice storm for most of NNJ from the Garden State Parkway westward and north of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Surface freezing line never really makes it north of 80 away from the immediate surrounding burbs. Summary Good front end dump for most of NNJ followed by significant ice from 78 north. The city and LI are mostly wet rather than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Aww crap. The 12Z GFS has a bad Ice Storm at SE NY/NE NJ/NNJ/NW NJ through HR 72. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah that is a setup for a nasty nasty ice storm north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ice kills time for first responders no use for it very disruptive.firemen,medics,police, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 SV maps not showing much accumulation south of 78. 2-4 or 4-6 type front end dump north of 78. Then probably at least 0.25"+ ice. Non event east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Surface freezing line never really makes it north of 80 away from the immediate surrounding burbs. Summary Good front end dump for most of NNJ followed by significant ice from 78 north. The city and LI are mostly wet rather than white. It's similiar to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 At least it remains on the warm side of the guidance overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS has a slow transfer which will extend the duration of the storm significantly, as opposed to earlier modeling which had the energy jumping to the twin forks and things ending quickly out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM may have gone slightly towards the GFS it seems maybe the transfer is later this time but I still think it's colder setup wise it may not show that on it's thermals though since it tends to run warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM may have gone slightly towards the GFS it seems maybe the transfer is later this time but I still think it's colder setup wise it may not show that on it's thermals though since it tends to run warm on the animated graphic it seems to match gfs with changeover in north jersey from snow to sleet at hr 72-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There's still a lot of time for adjustments but I'm taking things one storm at a time, main focus is tomorrow right now even though I'm buzzed about next weekend, massive potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How long do you think nyc / ewr stays as snow and sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Canadian got a lot wetter and less white for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Canadian got a lot wetter and less white for this event Depends on your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This storm is looking rather snowy for places in the lower Hudson valley, rockland and orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 My first call. Long Island - Quick 1-3" front end dump, brief sleet, then plain rain. Over 1" of rain. NYC and immediate surrounding NW burbs - 2-5" front end dump, then sleet, then rain. In excess of 0.75" of rain. West of the GSP, south of I-80. Quick 1-3" front end dump, then rain. Over 1.25" of rain. West of the GSP, north of I-80, south of I-84 - 4-8" front end dump, then sleet, then freezing rain, then rain. 0.25"-0.50" of ice accretion. North of I-84 - Mostly snow. 6-12" of snow, then sleet, then brief freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How long do you think nyc / ewr stays as snow and sleet? I think it'll be a lot like the mid December event. In that I had almost 3" of snow and then rain, Yonkers had 6" or so. It might be a quicker switch to sleet inland, but this could be a nasty ice event there. It'll likely snow for a few hours and then sleet/rain. Hopefully the temps won't spike like crazy on the coast like that event, so the snow will last after the rain dumps on it. The snow I had in that event was gone after a couple of hours. 35-38F can hold onto the snow for a lot longer than 46F during that storm. The writing seems to be on the wall though for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think it'll be a lot like the mid December event. In that I had almost 3" of snow and then rain, Yonkers had 6" or so. It might be a quicker switch to sleet inland, but this could be a nasty ice event there. It'll likely snow for a few hours and then sleet/rain. Hopefully the temps won't spike like crazy on the coast like that event, so the snow will last after the rain dumps on it. The snow I had in that event was gone after a couple of hours. 35-38F can hold onto the snow for a lot longer than 46F during that storm. The writing seems to be on the wall though for this one. Don't you think it's to early to say that? Upton is bullish on the whole area seeing allot of frozen.With the secondary off the coast NE winds will pull down cold air. I think this is more like the sleet fests of 07 then the December storm My li call is 4" of front end snow and then a ton of sleet. Take it to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't underestimate the low level cold especially with a secondary forming keeping the winds NE. I see a lot more ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The coast just doesn't do well in these setups. Doesn't mean the coast sees nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't underestimate the low level cold especially with a secondary forming keeping the winds NE. I see a lot more ice potential. you can see those NE winds on the 12Z GFS at KEWR - this is a very fragile situation 1-2 degrees makes the difference http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't underestimate the low level cold especially with a secondary forming keeping the winds NE. I see a lot more ice potential. Let's take into account the Snow cover from tomorrow's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The coast just doesn't do well in these setups. Doesn't mean the coast sees nothing. This has the potential to be one where they come close to nothing if everything goes wrong, we don't often see events that are all snow at BOS and all rain at NYC but this is as close as it gets...12/27/97 is a possible analog at least as far as how they were all snow up there and we were rain here, the overall upper level setup is not exactly the same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This has trended colder over the last 48 hours , you guys have to let this play out . The euro is the coldest of all the guidance And NO one is out of the woods . The guidance is continuing to come to a colder solution. It's just one of those years IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Per that meteor am looks like 3" snow lot of sleet/ice, then about .25" rain at 33f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The coast just doesn't do well in these setups. Doesn't mean the coast sees nothing. This is Feb. 23, 1994 repeat. NYC had 4.5" of snow. Then sleet and then ended with .25"-.50" of rain. The upper air charts are very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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