IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 WAA is historically underdone. I see the main story being ZR for the 80 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WAA is historically underdone. I see the main story being ZR for the 80 corridor Yikes. Not good. I don't wanna lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WAA is historically underdone. I see the main story being ZR for the 80 corridor WAA is always underdone.. Someone in the interior is gonna cash in big from this event.. Chances are you might have to cross over the NJ/NY border to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My NE forum co-members must all be asleep... How does the Euro look up toward northern Ct, and how does it compare to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My NE forum co-members must all be asleep... How does the Euro look up toward northern Ct, and how does it compare to 12z? Euro is epic, let's just say that, 4 storms with everyone accumulating snow. Right now, it focuses the snow on MD NE through NY but it's days away so you're in a good place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is an icestorm just to the north of NYC. The freezing line crosses central LI at hour 84 but then goes a tick north of the area. I mean just barely to the north of NYC at hour 90. Low goes from Ocean City, Maryland to the east of LI. At hr 84 I see the 0c 850 and surface line south of nyc with at least mod snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My NE forum co-members must all be asleep... How does the Euro look up toward northern Ct, and how does it compare to 12z? Looks pretty similar to 12z, should be almost all snow in northern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice front end thump for nyc and parts of LI before changing to rain. At hr 90 10-25 miles nw of 95 the 0c 850 line sits and most of NNJ is below freezing..nasty ice storm with snow north of there. Hudson valley sitting pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My NE forum co-members must all be asleep... How does the Euro look up toward northern Ct, and how does it compare to 12z? No worries for you guys up there. Northern conn looks to stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just basing off this map, when compared to 0z, 6z gfs got a tick cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just basing off this map, when compared to 0z, 6z gfs got a tick cooler The GFS has now just about come around to the Euro's solution, it probably will get there completely on either the 12Z or 00Z run today, I'm not sure anyone will changeover to all rain in this event other than LI, perhaps JFK and coastal NJ...the 06Z GFS if you look at sounding, LGA never goes above 30F and at worst the below freezing layer is 2500ft deep which may be deep enough for PL or FZRAPL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS has now just about come around to the Euro's solution, it probably will get there completely on either the 12Z or 00Z run today, I'm not sure anyone will changeover to all rain in this event other than LI, perhaps JFK and coastal NJ...the 06Z GFS if you look at sounding, LGA never goes above 30F and at worst the below freezing layer is 2500ft deep which may be deep enough for PL or FZRAPL Yeah. Was just looking closely at the GFS since it's been late to the party on this solution but the Euro has been steadfast. What worries me here is that if LGA is at 30, any freezing rain in the elevated areas (especially where I am in NW NJ), will be a rather 'cold' ZR. ZR at 31 isn't crippling --- but ZR at 26 is another story altogether. Really hoping for some more trending for more snow than ice... Euro seemed to have 8 or 9" of snow potentially --- and a dryslot --- which may help in this regard. Thanks for the analysis at this early hour Goose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS has now just about come around to the Euro's solution, it probably will get there completely on either the 12Z or 00Z run today, I'm not sure anyone will changeover to all rain in this event other than LI, perhaps JFK and coastal NJ...the 06Z GFS if you look at sounding, LGA never goes above 30F and at worst the below freezing layer is 2500ft deep which may be deep enough for PL or FZRAPL Thanks for your analysis.....I just don't want to see ice.....Doesn't happen often out here.....but it can happen. This situation has me nervous, especially with the cooling trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah. Was just looking closely at the GFS since it's been late to the party on this solution but the Euro has been steadfast. What worries me here is that if LGA is at 30, any freezing rain in the elevated areas (especially where I am in NW NJ), will be a rather 'cold' ZR. ZR at 31 isn't crippling --- but ZR at 26 is another story altogether. Really hoping for some more trending for more snow than ice... Euro seemed to have 8 or 9" of snow potentially --- and a dryslot --- which may help in this regard. Thanks for the analysis at this early hour Goose. Why are you saying the GFS is late to the game when 4 days ago it showed a column cold enough for snow from 850mb downward to surface(NYC) then went the other way: -4C to 7C at 850mb. Isn't it merely coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Why are you saying the GFS is late to the game when 4 days ago it showed a column cold enough for snow from 850mb downward to surface(NYC) then went the other way: -4C to 7C at 850mb. Isn't it merely coming back?4 days ago is an eternity this winter. It is slowly moving towards the Euro is all I meant. Late to the game in the present modeling suite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS keeps ticking colder. About 0.9" rain and 0.4" to 0.5" LE snow for central LI. Highest temp is around 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS has now just about come around to the Euro's solution, it probably will get there completely on either the 12Z or 00Z run today, I'm not sure anyone will changeover to all rain in this event other than LI, perhaps JFK and coastal NJ...the 06Z GFS if you look at sounding, LGA never goes above 30F and at worst the below freezing layer is 2500ft deep which may be deep enough for PL or FZRAPL SnowGoose what are we looking at here a little snow to start then a crippling ice storm ? Kind of looks like it on the 6Z GFS output at KEWR http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 so what are we looking at here a little snow to start then a crippling ice storm ? Kind of looks like it on the 6Z GFS output at KEWR http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Just check out KMMU. Looks like .80 as snow .40 as sleet. Looks like a very significant storm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is it right to say most recent guidance gives north jersey 3-5" of snow followed by significant ice/sleet, then maybe a little pure rain and once west of the parkway highest temps maybe 32-34 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is it right to say most recent guidance gives north jersey 3-5" of snow followed by significant ice/sleet, then maybe a little pure rain and once west of the parkway highest temps maybe 32-34 or so? Check the soundings above. Looks a lot worse than that on the 6z GFS. Morristown would get a major storm with .80 of snow, and .40 of sleet/freezing rain with temps around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Upton is honking for this one .. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...MOST OF WHICH COULD FALL SNOW...SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Im thinking that even LI may only change to plain rain briefly and can still see around 4-7" of snow. Obviously the past job will be taking place from rockland county on N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Have to say - this is one of the most wintry precip discussions for short term and longer term overall combined we have seen in quite some time -3 significant storm possibilities- if everything goes right this week into next weekend could be a period we will be remembering for quite awhile in addition to a winter overall we will not forget for a long time - Hope for the best ! http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for your analysis.....I just don't want to see ice.....Doesn't happen often out here.....but it can happen. This situation has me nervous, especially with the cooling trendI'll be honest, I've been worried about ice for several days now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll be honest, I've been worried about ice for several days now... Ice is something id be proud to give up in favor of cold rain any day of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ice is something id be proud to give up in favor of cold rain any day of the winter nothing worse and more boring than cold 40 or 50 degree rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 gfs is further south and colder hr 66 low taking over south of delmarva..snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snow moving in hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hr 69 rain/snow line runs from ttn-sandy hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Moderate snow hour 69, think it's going for an earlier transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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