IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS are still pretty good...a few amped members but the overwhelming majority of them now have the surface low centered over the Southeast Tennessee Valley at 156 hours. The OP is definitely leaning left and amped of the consensus. That being said, they have trended warmer and more amplified since yesterday. The mean still tracks the low from the Carolinas to the benchmark. And they make this more of a Tuesday into Wed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Canadian is still pretty nuts...has the PV pressing down while the SE ridge amps up and creates this huge baroclinic event. A hair more confluence and it'd be the biggest snow we've seen here in a while. Very strong primary low and eventually very strong secondary as well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f174.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z GGEM tracks a primary low to Kentucky and then transfers the low off the Delmarva coast which then tracks inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Play by play 7 days out? You guys are going to drive yourselves nuts, lol. As an aside, what I would find really interesting is verification scores on the major models with major snowstorms. We all know the Euro, overall, has generally a bit better verification scores, but I wonder if that advantage holds for snowstorms (on the flip side, I guess one might also want to know how many phantom snowstorms a model erroneously predicts). Has anyone published such an analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS are south of OP. 1008mb low just inside the benchmark at hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Crazy Canadian never fails...although it's warming the 850mb level in reality what it is showing is huge snow bomb for much of the area..the 925mb low closes off south of Long Island. And there's your overrunning to baroclinic zone to coastal low weather fantasy of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Had this is in the FEB thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Crazy Canadian never fails...although it's warming the 850mb level in reality what it is showing is huge snow bomb for much of the area..the 925mb low closes off south of Long Island. And there's your overrunning to baroclinic zone to coastal low weather fantasy of the day. The Canadian is actually following the ensemble means fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A lot of people have written about this , If this is weak , it will come under , if it deepens and the trough goes NEG it has to cut . 1 OP run isn`t an issue , if you have ensemble support I would turn there 7 days out . Yeah, the GEFS are still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, the GEFS are still cold. gfs-ens_mslpa_us_30.png There are always one or 2 off amped or flat soluitons 7 days out . Theres always variance with singular runs .. But they get washed out in the Ensemble package . So looking a week away , I m gona focus on the Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Taken as is, the canadian is 3-6" of snow for much of the NJ/NYC area including Long Island, and 12-18" well NW including Sussex county, to most of southern New England including boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Taken as is, the canadian is 3-6" of snow for much of the NJ/NYC area including Long Island, and 12-18" well NW including Sussex county, to most of southern New England including boston GGEM is 4"-6" of snow for NYC and then .75" of precip as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM is 4"-6" of snow for NYC and then .75" of precip as sleet. Does the GGEM also show a lot of dynamics and divergence (wind component)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM is 4"-6" of snow for NYC and then .75" of precip as sleet. I don't see that much sleet given the dynamics and intensity of the precipitation falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The details of what the Canadian shows at 180 hours doesn't really matter. The idea is that it still has an amped up storm and a transition to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The details of what the Canadian shows at 180 hours doesn't really matter. The idea is that it still has an amped up storm and a transition to the coast. going to come down to a quicker transfer to make sure warm air doesn't make too much of a punch into our area then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Taken as is, the canadian is 3-6" of snow for much of the NJ/NYC area including Long Island, and 12-18" well NW including Sussex county, to most of southern New England including boston Details as far as accumulation really don't matter 6 days out but since you mentioned it here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro looks a lot less suppressive so far through 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big low near Dallas hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big low near Dallas hour 150.keeo the pbp coming please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big low near Dallas hour 150. How's the Vortex in Canada look? Orientation/placement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We don't want a big storm-smaller pieces would be better...Euro likely going to cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Heavy over running snow at hour 162, low over Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 We don't want a big storm-smaller pieces would be better...Euro likely going to cut? NO WAY Euro is going to pop a secondary, GGEM like FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We don't want a big storm-smaller pieces would be better...Euro likely going to cut? As long as PV doesnt move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Very heavy WAA snow at hour 168 as the transfer heads to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 As long as PV doesnt move north Yup that's key. Strength/positioning/orientation/placement, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hour 174 all of NNJ is heavy freezing rain, excluding Sussex County which is still heavy snow. Low passing south of us. Monmouth County south and east is heavy rain. Freezing line over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Very heavy WAA snow at hour 168 as the transfer heads to the coast.Yea baby bring it ! Sorry for the burst of excitement..lolBahhhhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hour 174 all of NNJ is heavy freezing rain, excluding Sussex County which is still heavy snow. Low passing south of us. Monmouth County south is heavy rain. NYC is freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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