Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It becomes a bit more drastic through HR 84. The Secondary Low forms over Ocean City, MD. Still warm and mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It becomes a bit more drastic through HR 84. The Secondary Low forms over Ocean City, MD. I've been calling for a secondary forming near Ocean City Md for days now. The coast will have trouble regardless is the 850 low hangs on too long to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still warm and mostly rain. Pretty close call for all snow on this run. It seems that the GFS may still have some problems translating the mid level changes towards the surface. I've been calling for a secondary forming near Ocean City Md for days now. The coast will have trouble regardless is the 850 low hangs on too long to the west Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Pretty close call for all snow on this run. It seems that the GFS may still have some problems translating the mid level changes towards the surface. Yeah looks like the surface stays below 34 but 850s are still above freezing. Seems like it should be colder if the coastal low takes over near MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've been calling for a secondary forming near Ocean City Md for days now. The coast will have trouble regardless is the 850 low hangs on too long to the west In Euro/GGEM solution the island will get to 33-34 tops, 850's might not even get much above 0c if the GGEM verified. Think this is snow to ice to light rain in the end. There's no south wind component at all which will help keep the coast colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've been calling for a secondary forming near Ocean City Md for days now. The coast will have trouble regardless is the 850 low hangs on too long to the west History argues for a transfer to generally occur no further north than that, usually if it does not occur by then it won't at all and given the signal it was trying to occur in the pressure bagginess you figure the GFS had to come around eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In Euro/GGEM solution the island will get to 33-34 tops, 850's might not even get much above 0c if the GGEM verified. Think this is snow to ice to light rain in the end. There's no south wind component at all which will help keep the coast colder. Yea I saw that earlier but if you take a blend of all guidance we are still slightly too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS still creeped the low another tic south. Could be a sign it's, again catching up with EC and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 History argues for a transfer to generally occur no further north than that, usually if it does not occur by then it won't at all and given the signal it was trying to occur in the pressure bagginess you figure the GFS had to come around eventually Also, notice the isobars from the HP over Southern Canada? That has been intensifying on every run. So that's a signal that the confluence will become stronger in the future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 run is clearly trending towards a heavy west snow bomb for the interior. Much better than the run at this time last night. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yea I saw that earlier but if you take a blend of all guidance we are still slightly too warm. GFS isn't that warm either. It's around 37-38, though it's 850's get to +4C. I think whatever snow/sleet falls over the next several days will survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 run is clearly trending towards a heavy west snow bomb for the interior. Much better than the run at this time last night. Best Yeah it seems like it ! Could seriously be a dumping for the interior ! You guys deserve it though with all the coastal jackpots this season and last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I actually see some nice improvements this run, its just not handling the transfer well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It would be nice if the other models at least held serve if not trended a bit more favorably. It still looks like a lot of ice for the interior as there is over an inch of QPF in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah it seems like it ! Could seriously be a dumping for the interior ! You guys deserve it though with all the coastal jackpots this season and last Any time a low transfer to SNJ or lower,we typically get crushed. Trends look like a 7+ inch dump for NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM looks like it is really trying to transfer early, at 84 hours it has 3 low centers showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's not just the surface low transfer, keep in mind the 850 and 925 lows have to transfer as we'll. Those lows going NW of us means at least sleet mixing in. That's what we have to look for. The secondary low can't just be an appendage, it has to really take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's not just the surface low transfer, keep in mind the 850 and 925 lows have to transfer as we'll. Those lows going NW of us means at least sleet mixing in. That's what we have to look for. The secondary low can't just be an appendage, it has to really take over. This! Been saying this as well. I think the GGEM or Euro showed this earlier. We have so many threats and model runs that they are becoming blurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This! Been saying this as well. Based on the isobars that the GFS has, a transfer around the SE Virginia coast is very well within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How did the GGEM run finish out? Really need to save that link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hr 84 on the GGEM primary up to NWV and secondary formed 20 miles or so NE of Ocean City MD. 850s north of NYC and most of NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Surface is cold in NNJ. Ice storm. SE of 195 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazingly enough hr 90 is still not out on weather bell. I give up. Hopefully someone updates om what the rest of the storm does on the GGEM . I have to go before the gf kills me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0z Euro transfers a low near Ocean City, Maryland at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is an icestorm just to the north of NYC. The freezing line crosses central LI at hour 84 but then goes a tick north of the area. I mean just barely to the north of NYC at hour 90. Low goes from Ocean City, Maryland to the east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is an icestorm just to the north of NYC. The freezing line crosses NYC at hour 84 but then goes a tick north of the area. I mean just barely to the north of NYC at hour 90. Low goes from Ocean City, Maryland to the east of LI. Getting incredibly close to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NW of Philly gets the best of both worlds. Snow from the first one and mostly frozen from this obe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 North of 80 never goes above freezing for the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 North of 80 never goes above freezing for the whole event The City is really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know that the H5 synoptics aren't exactly the same from 1/11/11 Vs. 2/5/14, but you can see similarities in terms of the storm transferring on the 1/11 storm Vs. the 2/5 storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0112.php I looked at the 00Z GFS for a connection and the storm from 1/11 has an earlier transfer near OBX and the GFS has the transfer near Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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