bluewave Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's just south of Pitt once in NWV there's a secondary off AC KNYC hour 96 850 minus 2 at 108 its minus 10 Can't see in between that I'm every 12 hours. Corrected hour 108 They look fairly close 96 with the main difference between yesterday is that the 850 low only makes it to PIT instead of BUF. Not sure if today is correct or it inches a little further north within the last 48 hrs. Today Yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 They look fairly close 96 with the main difference between yesterday is that the 850 low only makes it to PIT instead of BUF. Not sure if today is correct or it inches a little further north within the last 48 hrs. Today Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_96.gif Yesterday Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's the control , its the coldest of all the guidance and would really be a snowstorm for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 18z NAM takes the primary to Cleveland and looks warm for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 18z NAM takes the primary to Cleveland and looks warm for now. NAM. 3 letters that should never be used with regards to weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM. 3 letters that should never be used with regards to weather forecasting. A reminder about the NAM. If it's amped like that, you know it'll go SE in the next several runs. That's a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 A reminder about the NAM. If it's amped like that, you know it'll go SE in the next several runs. That's a given.Exactky, that's why I mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Still don't feel good about this event. I would guess a few inches of snow to ZR and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A reminder about the NAM. If it's amped like that, you know it'll go SE in the next several runs. That's a given. Normally I would agree. Not this time. The trend maps on the model site at Amwx are clear which way this one is going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I wouldn't get too worked up over this storm yet....not a ton of support for a ton of snow....unless you live in Monmouth county, NJ....it still could be mainly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z gfs coming in less amped and further se…see when it develops a secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS is still warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Through 72 hours on the 18z GFS confluence looks a bit stronger and s/w does not look as amped. We'll see how it turns out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 its trying at hr 84..but temps are warming surface to nyc and 850's….not much qpf before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS is awesome north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 primary goes to just sw of pitt then moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 goes right over snj…hr 93 that point its rain from hpn-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I should add that the 12Z JMA is even more South and East with the primary and secondary than the GGEM and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS is awesome north of 80. GFS is starting to see the increased confluence up here. Hopefully future runs continue the trend on the GGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 hr 96 1004 inside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's a good front end dump north of 80, then ice. Coast goes to rain quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS definitely moved SE compared to 12z. More confluence. 850's are colder, surface low further east. Still not GGEM/Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its a def step towards the Euro at 12z at 96 the SLP is into PITT at 18z at 90 hrs its just S of Beckly WV . Didn't translate yet , but it did trend away from the run to Buffalo scenario . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It did trend better, which gives me more hope but it still has a lot of work to do as that primary is still way too far north and the transfer is far from ideal for around here. Those to the N&W are in a much better spot obviously with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I have the NAM at hr 72. 1005mb low west of Indy lol. I never use the NAM. It's just an fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There are some similarities on the H5 map between the 00Z GFS Vs. The 12Z GGEM through HR 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is a tad colder at 78 than it was at 18z, which makes for some nice front end snows starting, even into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hr 84 more SE than 18z and colder. Low beginning to move off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is a tad colder at 78 than it was at 18z, which makes for some nice front end snows starting, even into NYC. It becomes a bit more drastic through HR 84. The Secondary Low forms over Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It becomes a bit more drastic through HR 84. The Secondary Low forms over Ocean City, MD. Yeah. That's a much colder run and trending towards the Euro/GGEM at this time. For kicks, it's hilarious what the NAM looks like out at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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