Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 4 days away and the EURO/GGEM and GFS are WORLDS apart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 102 primary dies and secondary takes complete control, just inside 40/70. Awesome run NW Bias didn't take over for this run. This might start becoming interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 4 days away and the EURO/GGEM and GFS are WORLDS apart... The GFS is trying to lean towards the GGEM/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 4 days away and the EURO/GGEM and GFS are WORLDS apart... GFS tried popping a secondary, but it didn't, that's the main difference between it and the GGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS tried popping a secondary, but it didn't, that's the main difference between it and the GGEM/Euro. Could see this progressing as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think being that we have multiple threats in a short time frame that we should start the individual threads for the model runs. 0z,6z,12z,18z... Keep the storm threads for the storm discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gefs are still very amped up and west…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The canadian....keeps us mostly all frozen for NYC north...wow and a good amount of icing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I see why the GGEM is less amped. The ridging on the west coast is less amped. As a result, the vort is less amped and the SE Ridge gets pushed more south and east because of that. The 12Z NAM is pretty close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I see why the GGEM is less amped. The ridging on the west coast is less amped. As a result, the vort is less amped. The 12Z NAM is pretty close to that. Seeing the NAM at 84 hours not be that much more north/west and amplified than the GFS tells me the GFS is probably overly falling in love with the primary low as usual. At the same time though the GEM may be too optimistic at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Seeing the NAM at 84 hours not be that much more north/west and amplified than the GFS tells me the GFS is probably overly falling in love with the primary low as usual. At the same time though the GEM may be too optimistic at the coast. This is going to be a LONG 36 hours. The energy gets sampled for the 00Z runs tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow-even here that would be a lot of snow before mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GGEM did pretty well with the Dec Storm at this range. Still in a best case scenario, nyc & immediate n &w suburbs would go over to something non-Snow, the question is whether its zr or sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow-even here that would be a lot of snow before mixing. The panels he posted are not consecutive. You mix/rain after a couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The panels he posted are not consecutive. You mix/rain after a couple of hours Meteograms have 17mm of precip as snow 6mm as sleet 3mm as ice And then drizzle. For NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow-even here that would be a lot of snow before mixing. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Meteograms have 17mm of precip as snow 6mm as sleet 3mm as ice And then drizzle. For NYC. So that's over 1" QPF of frozen precipitation for NYC...that's a major winter storm for the metro region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 99 on the GGEM is pretty bad. 850's are up near Sussex with the surface freezing line southeast of the city with heavy precip over the area. That's likely 20's and ZR for much of NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 hr 96 nice thump of snow….surface south of phl and 850's by ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 hr 102 1008 south of long island nw jersey stays all snow…surface/850's runs through nyc-ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro looks colder through hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 this is a great run for nw PA,NJ, and sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Does the Euro look colder Anthony? J/K bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6-12 nw jersey 3-6 nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6-12 nw jersey 3-6 nyc Total QPF? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's pretty close to the GGEM. I think the Global Models (Except for the GFS) are seeing the vort having less of an influence on the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This run is really cold..most precip falls as snow or sleet from I-78 northward. Significant snowstorm for Northern NJ...NYC and all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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