96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm afraid to say this and not just because I don't like it, but I know once I say this, the maps could change drastically--anyway, it appears to me that definite trends are developing among all the models for most of the storm activity in the next week or two, and that with the changes in the ne Pacific/GOA, the pattern is becoming unfavorable for locking in any cold here during a storm event. It's beginning to look as though the -EPO is drawing to an end for now and may be in the process of switching to +EPO. Of course, after i post this, mother nature will try to trip me up. WX/PT I think it's the overwhelming hype that makes this potential tough to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There are reasons why we don't average 35-40"+ of snow, so you might be right about February though we are far from figuring this thing out. Well, we had a darn good run so far. Two winters with average snowfall back to back, but I gotta say even in nonimpressive winters ( exclude the real stinkers like 11-12 or 97-99 ) we usually see a few sleet events or a few snow to rain events, so we'll see. it certainly has been brutally cold, I've had pipes blow in one house, my SIL had pipes blow in Atlanta, and my skin is all cracked dry. having said that, would love some more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm afraid to say this and not just because I don't like it, but I know once I say this, the maps could change drastically--anyway, it appears to me that definite trends are developing among all the models for most of the storm activity in the next week or two, and that with the changes in the ne Pacific/GOA, the pattern is becoming unfavorable for locking in any cold here during a storm event. It's beginning to look as though the -EPO is drawing to an end for now and may be in the process of switching to +EPO. Of course, after i post this, mother nature will try to trip me up. WX/PT JB was pointing out yesterday that the trough showing up out west and especially one near the Aleutiians is the result of a piece of the PV backing westward and flooding that area with cold air. Contrary to this is when the west gets flooded with milder pacific air that would be the result of a trough traversing eastward across the Pacific. So as a result the Aleutian Low can drive Arctic air southward over the warmer Pacific waters and and spawn lower pressure over the Eastern Pacific which would in turn pump the ridge out west and get the Arctic slide going again. Is something like this feasible, Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it's the overwhelming hype that makes this potential tough to swallow. I agree, a week ago people are screaming potential, now things look more damp and wet than white. Nothing more depressing than cold rain in mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JB was pointing out yesterday that the trough showing up out west and especially one near the Aleutiians is the result of a piece of the PV backing westward and flooding that area with cold air. Contrary to this is when the west gets flooded with milder pacific air that would be the result of a trough traversing eastward across the Pacific. So as a result the Aleutian Low can drive Arctic air southward over the warmer Pacific waters and and spawn lower pressure over the Eastern Pacific which would in turn pump the ridge out west and get the Arctic slide going again. Is something like this feasible, Time will tell. Is that good or bad? I don't pay much attention to JB because he has proven ignorant on a variety of subjects I won't get into here. I think there are better mets right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JB was pointing out yesterday that the trough showing up out west and especially one near the Aleutiians is the result of a piece of the PV backing westward and flooding that area with cold air. Contrary to this is when the west gets flooded with milder pacific air that would be the result of a trough traversing eastward across the Pacific. So as a result the Aleutian Low can drive Arctic air southward over the warmer Pacific waters and and spawn lower pressure over the Eastern Pacific which would in turn pump the ridge out west and get the Arctic slide going again. Is something like this feasible, Time will tell. This winter season, I think almost anything is feasible because the models have SO bad. You cannot rule out that they are picking up something that is just NOT going to happen or missing something that WILL happen. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This winter season, I think almost anything is feasible because the models have SO bad. You cannot rule out that they are picking up something that is just NOT going to happen or missing something that WILL happen. WX/PT But it sounds to me like you kinda doubt it. Would that be accurate? I'm not a met or anything close, so I rely on you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Didn't mean to have it bold like that. lol. funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 But it sounds to me like you kinda doubt it. Would that be accurate? I'm not a met or anything close, so I rely on you folks. this year has pretty much been a crap shoot with the models the way they've been. I don't think we've ever had such a year where models have been so inconsistent throughout the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If the high trends stronger I think that will just result in longer icing. It's not looking too good right now. If we get the earlier than expected precipitation as we often do with these events then I'd expect 3, 4 or 5 inches of snow is very possible even near NYC...thats still alot of WAA being thrown over that cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAVGEM is very nice, weaker primary. Too bad it's the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAVGEM is very nice, weaker primary. Too bad it's the NAVGEM.What's the NAVGEM's bias again??It does look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What's the NAVGEM's bias again?? It does look good I think its bias is being too progressive, which would ultimately allow for a weaker primary that doesn't get too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 The NAVGEM's bias is being too suppressive generally but that was more definitive before the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The NAVGEM's bias is being too suppressive generally but that was more definitive before the upgrade. Yet after its upgrade its still considered a bottom shelf model. To be honest most of these models this winter dont even deserve the word "good". I agree with your earlier statement though yanks, if this trends colder it will mean more ice for areas already forecasted to get a nasty ice storm. The chances near the coast for snow to ice instead of rain in unlikely at this point and believe me i have no problem at all with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Gambatese Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What are we thinking on feb 3rd event, will this continue to trend good for central nj? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm afraid to say this and not just because I don't like it, but I know once I say this, the maps could change drastically--anyway, it appears to me that definite trends are developing among all the models for most of the storm activity in the next week or two, and that with the changes in the ne Pacific/GOA, the pattern is becoming unfavorable for locking in any cold here during a storm event. It's beginning to look as though the -EPO is drawing to an end for now and may be in the process of switching to +EPO. Of course, after i post this, mother nature will try to trip me up. WX/PT i have been feeling the same way....the trends are blatant and undeniable, cne north kind of program going forward for real snow and to be honest it wouldnt surprise me if taint gets into cne and most of sne south is slop to rain and coastal areas torch into the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What are we thinking on feb 3rd event, will this continue to trend good for central nj? Sent from my SCH-I545 No trends at this point other than some snow to a mix bag to rain. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS is coming in colder, nice front end dump and ZR is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Major ice storm NW of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The SE Ridge is actually weaker on this run and the confluence is staying away from the vort in the SW US. Those are pretty good improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Coastal pops over the twin forks, much improvement, not enough. North of I-80 is a pretty bad ice storm this run. North of Rt. 94 is a pretty severe ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 The primary completely dies off at hour 117 over NE PA. Loving the trends. A few hours sooner and bingo. I actually thought this had a chance of not cutting this run. The trough out west was significantly de-amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Some seriously cold temps lurking due north of the area with a northerly ageostrophic vector....could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 As usual 3 or 4 days before a storm the GFS starts to become more favorable. It will continue to trend to a colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GFS always catches onto the front end blast idea around the 84-120 hour mark, almost always it will show little to no snow for areas other than interior ones prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The primary completely dies off at hour 117 over NE PA. Loving the trends. A few hours sooner and bingo. I actually thought this had a chance of not cutting this run. The trough out west was significantly de-amplified. Yup. It's because of the confluence staying separate from the vort and the SE Ridge being weaker. Let's hope that this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 4-6" front end dump north of 78 and west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 As usual 3 or 4 days before a storm the GFS starts to become more favorable. It will continue to trend to a colder solution Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If you loop the 850 temps they actually cool between 99 and 102 hours with the temp profile dropping south...this could be an indication of the secondary trying to takeover earlier but not sure, I don't remember ever seeing that signal before in the absence of a clear transfer but the transfer actually occurs much later than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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