jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We all start out as some snow NW of JFK. Then NNJ flips to ZR quickly. Not happy with how this is trending, but what else is new in a SWFE-type event on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The CAD is lasting longer on this run. Probably due to the HP lasting longer to the north. EDIT: Even Boston gets rain by HR 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 This doesn't even look like a long duration event any longer. It's a warm frontal passage followed by a cold frontal passage and then we clear out. About 18 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, this is going to a problem N and W of NYC. I see a prolonged period of icing, before it eventually transitions to some plain rain. at 117 it just lifts N of the NJ border, but you have to imagine that was like 6-9 hours of ice on top of 3 or 4 hours of snow. HOPEFULLY there is decent rain at the end to help melt things a bit... Hudson Valley, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not happy with how this is trending, but what else is new in a SWFE-type event on Long Island. gotta think about this, you want the rain or the nasty ice storm some are going to receive? ill gladly take my rain instead of ice my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 at 117 it just lifts N of the NJ border, but you have to imagine that was like 6-9 hours of ice on top of 3 or 4 hours of snow. HOPEFULLY there is decent rain at the end to help melt things a bit... Hudson Valley, yikes. Yeah the last thing the Hudson Valley needs is an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The ZR is more like 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The high to the north is just not strong enough to lock in the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not happy with how this is trending, but what else is new in a SWFE-type event on Long Island. Couldn't agree more. With that said, I'm sure it will change a few more times over the weekend. Modeling has struggled this year. Could still be partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The ZR is more like 6 hours. i said 6-9 to include the HV (especially Northern parts). either way, 6 hours of fairly heavy ZR is NO fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I doubt we get 6 hours of freezing rain. Never usually pans out, and that is good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The ZR is more like 6 hours. Very important when it comes to icing. Is it showing temps below 30 or around freezing? My experience 32 freezing rain vs 29 freezing rain is a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Very important when it comes to icing. Is it showing temps below 30 or around freezing? My experience 32 freezing rain vs 29 freezing rain is a big difference. 100 percent agree with this statement... the difference is night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 so what do we need at this point to get a snowier solution or are we taking this storm off the table for a 6 + snow event prior to any change to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. Storm is still days away Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 100 percent agree with this statement... the difference is night and day Yep. HUGE difference. So asking people to please post the temp of what the model is showing if it's showing freezing rain would be very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 100 percent agree with this statement... the difference is night and day Yep. HUGE difference. So asking people to please post the temp of what the model is showing if it's showing freezing rain would be very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 so what do we need at this point to get a snowier solution or are we taking this storm off the table for a 6 + snow event prior to any change to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. Storm is still days away Best. we need for the PV to not be shunted north, the primary to die around southern ohio with secondary off Delmarva to sum it up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we need for the PV to not be shunted north, the primary to die around southern ohio with secondary off Delmarva to sum it up lol Strange out the GFS nailed this pattern around a week ago with the cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Strange out the GFS nailed this pattern around a week ago with the cutters. The main reason is models underestimated the SE ridging it seems, though given such rapid variability, they could go back to showing a weaker SE ridge. Without a set ENSO state, variability will continue to happen with what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 If the high trends stronger I think that will just result in longer icing. It's not looking too good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 GEFS look like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm afraid to say this and not just because I don't like it, but I know once I say this, the maps could change drastically--anyway, it appears to me that definite trends are developing among all the models for most of the storm activity in the next week or two, and that with the changes in the ne Pacific/GOA, the pattern is becoming unfavorable for locking in any cold here during a storm event. It's beginning to look as though the -EPO is drawing to an end for now and may be in the process of switching to +EPO. Of course, after i post this, mother nature will try to trip me up. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm afraid to say this and not just because I don't like it, but I know once I say this, the maps could change drastically--anyway, it appears to me that definite trends are developing among all the models for most of the storm activity in the next week or two, and that with the changes in the ne Pacific/GOA, the pattern is becoming unfavorable for locking in any cold here during a storm event. It's beginning to look as though the -EPO is drawing to an end for now and may be in the process of switching to +EPO. Of course, after i post this, mother nature will try to trip me up. WX/PT In my February outlook blog; I mentioned how the teleconnections( MJO/NAO/PNA) will cause February to be average to slightly above average in temps, and average to below average in precip. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=71318&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In my February outlook blog; I mentioned how the teleconnections( MJO/NAO/PNA) will cause February to be average to slightly above average in temps, and average to below average in precip. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=71318&Itemid=179 It's beginning to look as though you may be right but remember what I said about mo' nature. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In my February outlook blog; I mentioned how the teleconnections( MJO/NAO/PNA) will cause February to be average to slightly above average in temps, and average to below average in precip. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=71318&Itemid=179 You are missing the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's beginning to look as though you may be right but remember what I said about mo' nature. WX/PT She can change any second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You are missing the -EPO. At the end of the blog. This -epo though is starting to break apart. **One caveat to this outlook is the evolution of a ridge building into Alaska(-epo). If this is realized, and this ridge is able to build far enough into greenland(-nao(not a classic look)) then the east coast can be under the influence of a trough, and would increase the likeihood of cold and snow for the region.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 At the end of the blog. This -epo though is starting to break apart. **One caveat to this outlook is the evolution of a ridge building into Alaska(-epo). If this is realized, and this ridge is able to build far enough into greenland(-nao(not a classic look)) then the east coast can be under the influence of a trough, and would increase the likeihood of cold and snow for the region.** ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ok Didn't mean to have it bold like that. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In my February outlook blog; I mentioned how the teleconnections( MJO/NAO/PNA) will cause February to be average to slightly above average in temps, and average to below average in precip. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=71318&Itemid=179 There are reasons why we don't average 35-40"+ of snow, so you might be right about February though we are far from figuring this thing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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