ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have certainly had decent front end dumps on cutters. u get what im saying. no sharpe cut off to worry about lol. id rather have he wall of snow changing to sleet and ending as drizzle than watching coastal areas get clobbered as i have flurries we have ALL had decent front ends from cutters....with a hugger you would get a full snow event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yup, at hour 120 the primary is near Pitt, by 126 a sub 996mb low is off of Cape Cod, we flip back to ZR even in the city as the surface crashes. it would NOT flip back to ZR, maybe sleet. The upper levels would cool first....I dont even need to see the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Warmer is a positive trend for 4-5 since we lost the snowstorm idea as soon as the 850 cut to BUF and the alternative is ice. But Interior sections would still have problems if the euro doesn't trend a little more north with CAD the closer we get. Yes I agree with you there. Id take rain over ice any day. However, I think the "good trends" he referred to meant more of a frozen solution, which just simply isn't shown by this euro run. It's sometimes difficult reading model play by plays when some just consistently see "positive" trends that are just not shown anywhere. I mean, I have access to all of the models myself, but I appreciate the feedback from people such as yourself that bring light to the situation and inject it with the reality of what is happening and what the models are really showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GGEM ensembles are a nice front end dump followed by ice inland and rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we have ALL had decent front ends from cutters....with a hugger you would get a full snow event.... Of course but this storm isnt going to be a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I was just delving through CIPS analogs...this looks pretty darn close right here....2/16/93....biggest difference is much better high positioning in this event than that one, there were SE winds and no CAD but otherwise the setup at 500 over the CONUS is not a bad match at all http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0216.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Of course but this storm isnt going to be a hugger. almost every system this winter, especially the past 3 or so, have changed within 24-36 hours on the models. People were insisting that it would be a miss and most wouldn't see a flake and alas, we did. People should not live and die with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 almost every system this winter, especially the past 3 or so, have changed within 24-36 hours on the models. People were insisting that it would be a miss and most wouldn't see a flake and alas, we did. People should not live and die with every model run. Says the guy complaining about banter. (not that I disagree with your thoughts above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not sure what to make of the ECMWF ensemble mean, it essentially tracks the primary right over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 almost every system this winter, especially the past 3 or so, have changed within 24-36 hours on the models. People were insisting that it would be a miss and most wouldn't see a flake and alas, we did. People should not live and die with every model run. But the change has been NW within 72 hrs which wouldn't help us in this occasion. Our big snows this month were initially OTS until we got closer in. Even the light snow the other day was initially OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not sure what to make of the ECMWF ensemble mean, it essentially tracks the primary right over NJ. That's......strangely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's......strangely interesting. It could just be the primary dying over PA and transferring to the coast. The temperature profiles don't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It could just be the primary dying over PA and transferring to the coast. The temperature profiles don't look great. What do they show? Front end thump north and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 What do they show? Front end thump north and west? Really nice front end dump north of I-80 and west of I-287. Looks like close to 0.25" falls before the mid-levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm really interested to see how the NAM handles this. If it's just as amped up or less amped up than the GGEM/GFS/ECMWF it's a sign that things might trend better in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 To me it looks like at hr 108 the primary is over the central tenn/kent border. Then it looks like it's trying transfer at hr 120 but it's a large spread that covers Pa, NJ, SW NY...so it's likely trying to show the primary dying and transfer happening somewhere over NJ. It's really hard to tell using wb. But that's probably due to a large spread in the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The #1 analog over the east at hour 120 is now 02/14/2000 That was actually a major severe weather producer over the southeast US. Not much snow for the area. Some ZR for the interior. None of the analogs have big snows for this area. 2/6/04 was the most severe ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The #1 analog over the east at hour 120 is now 02/14/2000 That was actually a major severe weather producer over the southeast US. Not much snow for the area. Some ZR for the interior. None of the analogs have big snows for this area. 2/6/04 was the most severe ice That was a major ZR ice storm for most of central PA and New York (2/14/00). 2/7/04 was a major snow producer in central PA-up to a foot of snow in a few hours or so. Pretty much all rain near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I lied, one big snower, 2/9/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I lied, one big snower, 2/9/94 I'll keep this on the side, just in-case if something like this does surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Created a blog/discussion for this event. Here is the link http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=72352&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS, the high to our north looks to be holding stronger but I've been fooled before. The energy out west is amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thicknesses actually starting to fall at hour 108 with the primary over Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS, the high to our north looks to be holding stronger but I've been fooled before. The energy out west is amped up. Looks like it's going to cut. The southeast ridge is poking through. Not only that, but the high looks to retreat as there is no real block to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 We all start out as some snow NW of JFK. Then NNJ flips to ZR quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like it's going to cut. The southeast ridge is poking through. Not only that, but the high looks to retreat as there is no real block to the north. I think we all know it's going to cut, does it redevelop is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Holy ICE at 114 N of 78. Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think we all know it's going to cut, does it redevelop is the question. If it does develop, it will be too far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nah, nevermind, this isn't going to be good. 1-2, 2-4 front end dump, then a few hours of ZR and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Holy ICE at 114 N of 78. Sheesh... Yeah, this is going to a problem N and W of NYC. I see a prolonged period of icing, before it eventually transitions to some plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.