jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the interior is a front end thump of snow along with the coast and interior goes ZR/IP and coast RN on current modeling. That's normally how it goes. It looks a lot like what happened in December so far with this storm. If the PV relaxes at all then I don't think many of us are looking at much snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's normally how it goes. It looks a lot like what happened in December so far with this storm. If the PV relaxes at all then I don't think many of us are looking at much snow at all. I would much rather just go over to rain here on the South Shore since the 850 to BUF nixes our chances of more than a slushy inch or two before changeover anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GGEM is so close to producing a huge storm. It begins the coastal transfer way down south and then suddenly the process gets halted. Something must be going on to prevent the transfer when it should be taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GGEM is so close to producing a huge storm. It begins the coastal transfer way down south and then suddenly the process gets halted. Something must be going on to prevent the transfer when it should be taking place. What does it end up showing? Front end thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 What does it end up showing? Front end thump? Not much in the way of snow, I was referring more to the earlier transfer to the coast potential. It's significant ice inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 part of me (and im sure other inland folks agree) would rather have a cutter since the coastals have done nothing but shafted us inland folks this year. my biggest event this year was from the December cutter , gave 6.5 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 You know I wonder if the reason why this doesn't transfer to the coast is because as the trough reaches our latitude it quickly de-amplifies as it gets absorbed by the PV. That's the only thing I can come up with looking at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 part of me (and im sure other inland folks agree) would rather have a cutter since the coastals have done nothing but shafted us inland folks this year. my biggest event this year was from the December cutter , gave 6.5 of snow. A cutter isn't going to help you out much anyway. Maybe an ice storm but way too much warm air aloft to see snow. If anything you want a late redeveloper off the coast or a coastal hugger. Then the interior can cash in with big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GEFS out to 120hr is similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 part of me (and im sure other inland folks agree) would rather have a cutter since the coastals have done nothing but shafted us inland folks this year. my biggest event this year was from the December cutter , gave 6.5 of snow. you want a coastal HUGGER, not CUTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 not worth much, but the 12z navgem has shifted to the south slightly, close to giving nyc a isothermal snow bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 not worth much, but the 12z navgem has shifted to the south slightly, close to giving nyc a isothermal snow bomb It kills the primary over southern Ohio. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 part of me (and im sure other inland folks agree) would rather have a cutter since the coastals have done nothing but shafted us inland folks this year. my biggest event this year was from the December cutter , gave 6.5 of snow. this inland person definatly would agree,we have been shafted so far this winter..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you want a coastal HUGGER, not CUTTER HUGGER or cutter,whatever gets it in here! Might as well put a mower blade on the snowmobile around here lately,,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you want a coastal HUGGER, not CUTTER i have certainly had decent front end dumps on cutters. u get what im saying. no sharpe cut off to worry about lol. id rather have he wall of snow changing to sleet and ending as drizzle than watching coastal areas get clobbered as i have flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Starting out as snow most areas hour 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This run is coming in more amped up than the 0z run. Looks like a transfer is about to happen near NYC. Not a good run for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Primary to Pitt, nasty ice storm I-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yup, at hour 120 the primary is near Pitt, by 126 a sub 996mb low is off of Cape Cod, we flip back to ZR even in the city as the surface crashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yup, at hour 120 the primary is near Pitt, by 126 a sub 996mb low is off of Cape Cod, we flip back to ZR even in the city as the surface crashes. Sounds surprisingly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sounds surprisingly colder. It's all based on the transfer. The initial cut is inevitable. Good trends, still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yup, at hour 120 the primary is near Pitt, by 126 a sub 996mb low is off of Cape Cod, we flip back to ZR even in the city as the surface crashes. So a short period 6 hours of plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's all based on the transfer. The initial cut is inevitable. Good trends, still plenty of time. We need a better PV consolidation close to NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's all based on the transfer. The initial cut is inevitable. Good trends, still plenty of time.How much snow on the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sounds surprisingly colder. It's warmer than the last run since the freezing line at the surface pushes i-80 north instead of through NYC during the bulk of precip. Most precip is done when freezing line drops back south later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 this inland person definatly would agree,we have been shafted so far this winter..lol Cutters are bad for you guys also, unless you like sleet. I lived through many cutters back in the awful 07-08 winter in State College, PA and trust me, they weren't fun. Often we would get a couple of inches of front end snow and then hours of heavy sleet while the SNE thread would bounce with "ripping", "crushing", etc posts. SWFEs are only fun once you're northeast of NYC and sometimes quite a ways northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sounds surprisingly colder. Doesn't really seem to be. The primary has to die and switch to a dominant offshore low, along with the 850 and 925mb lows, or there's guaranteed to be a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's all based on the transfer. The initial cut is inevitable. Good trends, still plenty of time. I haven't seen one positive trend on this euro run at all. Less snow for Monday, warmer solution for the 4-5 storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I haven't seen one positive trend on this euro run at all. Less snow for Monday, warmer solution for the 4-5 storm.... Warmer is a positive trend for 4-5 since we lost the snowstorm idea as soon as the 850 cut to BUF and the alternative is ice. But Interior sections would still have problems if the euro doesn't trend a little more north with CAD the closer we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 our shortwave is about 60 hrs from reaching the west coast, should get a really clear idea of what's going to happen by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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