IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS so far looks better than 06z. The PV is stronger and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 That low pressure system is really having trouble getting any further north than the KY/TN border so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS so far looks better than 06z. The PV is stronger and further east. ii dont know, the s/w looks more amped...really pumps the heights ahead of it. this is going to be a cutter still i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Light snow hour 114 overspreading the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 06z didn't have any snow, this is already a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That low pressure system is really having trouble getting any further north than the KY/TN border so far. Dude...it's barreling into Ohio with nothing getting in its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hour 117 moderate to heavy snow I-78 north. Awesome front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NYC already changing over to rain after 1-2 hours of light frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The CAD is strong with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Dude...it's barreling into Ohio with nothing getting in its way. It's much better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hour 120 is heavy freezing rain I-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hour 117 moderate to heavy snow I-78 north. Awesome front end dump. So, since you're not interpreting the model correctly, I guess I have to. So far, it's 1-3 hours of light snow or sleet for NYC and east, then over to plain rain. For interior NJ, it's a few hours of light snow with maybe 1-3" accumulation, following by some ice and then plain rain. Better than 6z, but marginal for NYC, and pretty bad overall. Especially when compared to the Euro and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Primary is west of 6z but temps aloft are colder than 6z. We see more of a front end thump this run. 6z barely had any for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 An improvement from previous runs, but a lot of plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 An improvement from previous runs, but a lot of plain rain. This looks like 2/1/11. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is not 1-2 hours of light frozen precip then rain... It's a pretty good front end thump of snow and sleet.. sleet may sneak in early, but def a good amount of snow and ice.. it seems like the north/south gradient of snowfall in these set-ups is not a lot.. we all see 3-6"+ of snow+ice.. lets see if this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is not 1-2 hours of light frozen precip then rain... It's a pretty good front end thump of snow and sleet Thank you, he has to understand that the QPF outputs are from the preceding hours, so significant precip falls before the 850 freezing line is north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 So, he wasn't wrong. It was better than 06z and gives some of us a nice front end dump of snow. Your shot at him was unwarranted and uncalled for. Thanks, this storm wasn't quite as good as a lot of us hoped for but it was still a lot better than 06z. The ZR also looks to be more limited than 00z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It is clearly better than my initial thoughts from looking at SV maps. A definite improvement. Apologies to all for the poor analysis and to Yanksfan for calling him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 at 12z wednesday after the front end thump.. most areas in this thread still below freezing except extreme south and east areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 WAA sometimes overspreads faster than what the model sees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 It is clearly better than my initial thoughts from looking at SV maps. A definite improvement. Apologies to all for the poor analysis and to Yanksfan for calling him out. Much appreciated. We still have a long way to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 at 12z wednesday after the front end thump.. most areas in this thread still below freezing except extreme south and east areas.. What type of temps are we talking about? In my experience heavy to moderate freezing rain doesnt become a huge deal unless the temps are 30 and below. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 WAA sometimes overspreads faster than what the model sees . The 850 low running to BUF would warm that level faster and the GFS may be underestimating the cold air below 900 mb so the end result would be more ice interior than the model is showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z GFS gave us up here about 4-5" followed by tons of sleet & ending as drizzle. 12z GFS def shows more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 True, these situations are usually more sleet, depends shallow cold air layer is, Back in the December storm we all had 4-6" then sleet, then the shore had a ton of freezing rain, while just inland was all sleet after.. I will look more into it later, although it's all speculative at this point, 4.5 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The system is very resistant to secondary cyclogenesis on the coast... as someone said yesterday, the Appalachians will always cause some lowering of pressure environment in their lee, but the big redevelopers have some other mechanism to force cyclogenesis. I'm not sure exactly what the mechanisms are, as a rule, but I think a more diffluent flow east of the s/w trough and any additional dPVA would help. At the very least, those factors seem present in a few of the historical examples I recall. I don't claim to be an expert, but I'd just like to get the ball rolling on a discussion of why coastal cyclogenesis is not favored here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 850 low running to BUF would warm that level faster and the GFS may be underestimating the cold air below 900 mb so the end result would be more ice interior than the model is showing now. The layer NW is deeper so its colder longer . I think they would see more front end Snow . For us on the Coast the snow may be limited but some ZIP as this could race in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The system is very resistant to secondary cyclogenesis on the coast... as someone said yesterday, the Appalachians will always cause some lowering of pressure environment in their lee, but the big redevelopers have some other mechanism to force cyclogenesis. I'm not sure exactly what the mechanisms are, as a rule, but I think a more diffluent flow east of the s/w trough and any additional dPVA would help. At the very least, those factors seem present in a few of the historical examples I recall. I don't claim to be an expert, but I'd just like to get the ball rolling on a discussion of why coastal cyclogenesis is not favored here. It's a good observation. The models for some reason have been showing a very sloppy transfer when it does occur that is beyond my level of knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The layer NW is deeper so its colder I think would would see more front end Snow . For us on the Coast the snow may be limited but some ZIP as this could race in . I think the interior is a front end thump of snow along with the coast and interior goes ZR/IP and coast RN on current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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