MJO812 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Terrible run for NYC south. SNE northward is golden on this run. The GFS will continue to change 1,000,000 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm feeling like watching each of these runs is going to lead to a lot of heart burn. Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles --- at least until the weekend. Of course, that said, I'll watch every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like the primary is going to die a slow death over western PA and transfer to a secondary off the VA coast. Edit, low passes right over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I thought I read somewhere that the biggest fear with this storn is suppression? So what gives with the cutter this run? Gfs bias at play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I thought I read somewhere that the biggest fear with this storn is suppression? So what gives with the cutter this run? Gfs bias at play? The bias for the GFS is to shear out the storms, not cutters. Euro and GFS are way different. Euro shears out this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 1-2" of QPF, mostly rain from I-95 south and east, a lot of it frozen or freezing from I-95 NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Earthlight is right, the wheels fell off the wagon when the PV split and phased in. This is close to what it did yesterday at 12z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I thought I read somewhere that the biggest fear with this storn is suppression? So what gives with the cutter this run? Gfs bias at play? No the cutter idea was always on the table. But again you have to look at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Everyone knew this model waffling was going to happen over the next several days. When the Gefs start trending cutter then you could start to worry. To think I used to love rollercoaster rides Sent from my HTC ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I thought the GFS bias was the suppressed solution. I guess any run that doesn't hand me a blizzard is a biased run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'd wait at least a few days before becoming worried or excited about a particular outcome. It's hard enough for models now to get these systems down pat 48 hours out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I thought I read somewhere that the biggest fear with this storn is suppression? So what gives with the cutter this run? Gfs bias at play? It may be holding onto the primary too long like it does often before shearing it out or developing a coastal (though a coastal is not really at play in this scenario), but with a -PNA and no real blocking in the Atlantic there's little to stop some cutting from happening. We have to hope the -EPO really flexes it's muscles again to mute the other unfavorable indices. The positioning/orientation of the Polar Vortex is very important as well just as earthlight has been screaming about for the last day or so lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z runs have been bad then it goes better at 18z and 0z...seems that's been the trend last few days...a bit odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A lot of people have written about this , If this is weak , it will come under , if it deepens and the trough goes NEG it has to cut . 1 OP run isn`t an issue , if you have ensemble support I would turn there 7 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The system coming in on its heals is no slouch either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The bias for the GFS is to shear out the storms, not cutters. Euro and GFS are way different. Euro shears out this storm. We don't want an amplified, phased storm. That is very likely to be rain or slop for most of us if we're not going to have a good NAO. We want a strung out system that stays separate from the PV, and is suppressed somewhat by it. Cutter is still definitely an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We don't want an amplified, phased storm. That is very likely to be rain or slop for most of us if we're not going to have a good NAO. We want a strung out system that stays separate from the PV, and is suppressed somewhat by it. Cutter is still definitely an option. Both options are on the table. Agree with an unphased storm. Now if we had a -NAO block, that would have been another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A west-based -NAO block could actually cause the PV split more and SE ridge to connect to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We don't want an amplified, phased storm. That is very likely to be rain or slop for most of us if we're not going to have a good NAO. We want a strung out system that stays separate from the PV, and is suppressed somewhat by it. Cutter is still definitely an option. I think a cutter is still the most likely option except it would cut further east instead of over the lakes because of where it's originating and the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Actually a phase wouldn't be that bad as long as it occurs later than what the 12z GFS shows. Otherwise we run the risk of this being 00z ECMWF like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 One thing is for sure --- it is loaded with moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 One thing is for sure --- it is loaded with moisture! Relatively long-duration as well. Nice change of pace from the frigid bursts of fluff, regardless of dominant p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 One thing is for sure --- it is loaded with moisture! Remember a few days back when we were talking about 2 storms in the 1/30-2/2 period?...lots can still happen from rain to blizzard to drizzle to partly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I suspect the GEFS mean will be a better solution than what the op shows again. The ensembles have been the most consistent modeling thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Remember a few days back when we were talking about 2 storms in the 1/30-2/2 period?...lots can still happen from rain to blizzard to drizzle to partly sunny I hear ya. I'm just saying that it seems wherever it goes (cutter, suppressed, or coastal), there's a ton of moisture to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I suspect the GEFS mean will be a better solution than what the op shows again. The ensembles have been the most consistent modeling thus far. Both the GFS and Euro Ensembles have been steady with this coming to the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't think the GFS is always just too strong with the northern stream causing suppression, it just has tough time with the northern stream in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I suspect the GEFS mean will be a better solution than what the op shows again. The ensembles have been the most consistent modeling thus far. Everyone should go with the ensembles with the storm/s being so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The system coming in on its heals is no slouch either. How's the rest of the OP GFS run? I assume warmer since the 1/5 storm trended unfavorably for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS are still pretty good...a few amped members but the overwhelming majority of them now have the surface low centered over the Southeast Tennessee Valley at 156 hours. The OP is definitely leaning left and amped of the consensus. That being said, they have trended warmer and more amplified since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.