snywx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z GFS verbatim up here is 4-6" of snow followed by sleet. No rain... Still a sig storm and the trends aren't done yet. Temps stay below freezing throughout the event. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I take it the Euro is bad/warm based on the lack of comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks colder.. Surface freezing line doesn't make it north of Middlesex county, during the bulk of precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is SE (well at least cold)..snow to ice NW of 95..looks like snow to rain elsewhere. Highest temp is on LI at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00Z Euro has a pretty different approach to this storm at the surface. This is getting more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z gfs, not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z gfs, not goodMod Ice storm lohud. Rain everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mod Ice storm lohud. Rain everywhere else. Lo-hudson can keep the ice and i will gladly take the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 ZR is not only for the HV. Anyone NW of 95 gets at least some on the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's going to change again anyway 1000 times before next week but the GFS is the warm outlier. The 00Z GGEM ensemble mean looks a lot like the OP and is much colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's going to change again anyway 1000 times before next week but the GFS is the warm outlier. The 00Z GGEM ensemble mean looks a lot like the OP and is much colder than the GFS. As is the Euro. I was trying to hunt down snow amounts on the 0z Euro for kicks (I'm up in the Great Northwest). What did they show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As is the Euro. I was trying to hunt down snow amounts on the 0z Euro for kicks (I'm up in the Great Northwest). What did they show? Per SV, the Euro is quite a bit of snow up front for NNJ. 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So For this storm the euro/gem have good snows (3-6/4-8) followed by mostly ice/sleet and little pure rain, while the gfs is mostly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So For this storm the euro/gem have good snows (3-6/4-8) followed by mostly ice/sleet and little pure rain, while the gfs is mostly rain? That is correct. I suppose I would lean towards supporting the models that appear to be seeing low level cold air at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The latest analog guidance now overwhelmingly points towards a significant ice storm over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is also the median snowfall based on the top 15 analogs over the east at 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just hope it starts trending more white to rain then to ice. Good thing im off wednesday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anyone writing this off in the NYC metro is NOT out too lunch this storm is going to cut west - there might be a brief - brief period of snow and or ice at the start but this will be mainly rain which will wash away the remaining snowcover we have now -(what is left of it from the warm up over the weekend. The midweek storm that cuts will be followed by a very strong cold 1030 + high pressure north of us and maybe some blocking which will force the late week Feb 8 - 9 storm just south of us and providing us with the potential of a SECS and possibly MECS I still agree with this for NYC metro proper - although the 6Z GFS has the 8 -9th storm cutting west something to watch http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014013106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_66.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 1/6/09 is the last time we had widespread ice storm warnings for the area. Counties in NJ under the warning included Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Western Passaic and Somerset. Bergen was added to the warning late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just hope it starts trending more white to rain then to ice. Good thing im off wednesday though The Euro has snow to rain at the coast and snow to ice NW of 95 this run. It's all about the CAD forcing the transfer far enough south for an ice threat. We'll probably need to wait and see within 60 hours exactly where the transfer occurs. The GFS often underestimates the cold air in these CAD set ups and plays catch up to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1/6/09 is the last time we had widespread ice storm warnings for the area. Counties in NJ under the warning included Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Western Passaic and Somerset. Bergen was added to the warning late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1/6/09 is the last time we had widespread ice storm warnings for the area. Counties in NJ under the warning included Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Western Passaic and Somerset. Bergen was added to the warning late. Ice storms are very rare on Long Island, it's usually snow to rain, or sleet. I think it would be a more normal snow to rain transition where I am and there would be a lot more ice just inland. Hopefully the colder solutions continue to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ice storms are very rare on Long Island, it's usually snow to rain, or sleet. I think it would be a more normal snow to rain transition where I am and there would be a lot more ice just inland. Hopefully the colder solutions continue to win out. The Euro was a classic primary to PIT and Secondary just south of LI due to strong CAD. It looks like we get above freezing this run LI but City N and W has ice problems. Probably have to wait to until under 48 hrs to know exactly where the boundary sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would favor snow to sleet/ice NW of I-95 and snow to sleet to rain for the city and immediate western burbs. Right now it looks like Long Island would start as a brief wintry mix before quickly transitioning to rain. In either event, temperatures in NW areas don't look alarmingly cold so the heavier ZR will likely have some trouble accumulating. The 00z Bufkit text output for the GFS at KMMU had a max temp of 33.3F and 0.67" ice accretion. KSWF was much worse, max temps of 31.2F and 0.84" ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I know it's the NAM but I like the look. Strong confluent flow over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ice storms are very rare on Long Island, it's usually snow to rain, or sleet. I think it would be a more normal snow to rain transition where I am and there would be a lot more ice just inland. Hopefully the colder solutions continue to win out. They are, at least major ones. We can get ice events but we need a snow pack and good CAD. A lot of times the low level cold is under modeled especially here on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 They are, at least major ones. We can get ice events but we need a snow pack and good CAD. A lot of times the low level cold is under modeled especially here on LI. Is the snowpack really all gone there? We had a lot less snow out this way and yet the ground remains white in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is the snowpack really all gone there? We had a lot less snow out this way and yet the ground remains white in most spots. We have about an inch left but I expect it to be gone by tomorrow. I'm just speaking in general terms that we need a snow pack. That's what helped us get an ice event in Feb 2011. If we get snow on Monday, it will help with the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is the snowpack really all gone there? We had a lot less snow out this way and yet the ground remains white in most spots. Solid 3" remains here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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