atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Majority of PA and NJ go over to rain by 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Oh boy, heavy, heavy ZR at 129. Low level cold air really hanging tough. well... less ice accretion with the heavier freezing rain. woo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This run sucks. End of story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I agree but it's because we end up with an ice storm which is the worst outcome in my opinion.When it comes to freezing rain. The temp needs to really be 30 and below to really accumulate in the city. Especially if it's heavy rain. Anyone know the temps for KMMU and NYC during the peak icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This run sucks. End of story I disagree big time! The low passed much further south and tried to transfer in West Virginia. A much better look aloft than prior runs. Almost looks like the 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This run sucks. End of story Its 130 hours out nothing to worry about yet. Its need to get better sampling, thats why the transfer looked so horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 At KNYC at 132 its plus 6 at 850 and the surface is close to 30 Degrees , that's def ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When it comes to freezing rain. The temp needs to really be 30 and below to really accumulate in the city. Especially if it's heavy rain. Anyone know the temps for KNMU and NYC during the peak icy? It goes above freezing most places (34-36) fairly early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nothing for snow lovers to love in this image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would urge everyone to not pay attention to the finer details and focus on the improvements with the other features. This was not that far off from a much better solution. The evolution of the system was slower and therefore the WAA precip didn't arrive fast enough to be snow in the city. That will also need to be watched. The earlier on Tuesday that this starts, the colder aloft it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol yes this run does suck....no positives here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol yes this run does suck....no positives here It's colder and the low transfers further south than previous runs. Big improvement on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Majority of PA and NJ go over to rain by 132 hrs Yes but at 126 for you , that's not pretty 850`s at 0 , you look to be in the upper 20`s .50 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The primary needs to be weaker and the redevelopment not only south but stronger and the confluence has to be stronger in order for this to turn out more favorable for snowfall..Otherwise the WAA push is going to be to strong and going to transition to ice and rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This sounds like a major ZR storm if the 850's warm but the surface is stubborn like 1/7/1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This doesn't show 1 flake of snow for most of nj and NYC....worst gfs run yet.... I'm still not throwing in the towel by any means yet but I'd really like to see within the next 24-48 hours some solutions at least start redeveloping the low substantially further south than progged now. I'm not liking the continuing trend toward a more consolidated and amplified trough coming from the Midwest. That will leave us with very little room to work with for snow before a changeover. SWFE events just are not favorable for us for a lot of snow, other than the outlier cases such as 2/22/2008. I like the odds of at least one of the three upcoming events delivering a significant event for the entire area, but I can also see them all being a combination of whiffs and cutters. That's the risk you run in a progressive pattern with little blocking. Hopefully we continue the trend toward more west based blocking, because otherwise these events will all be nailbiters with a real chance they are all duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 At KNYC at 132 its plus 6 at 850 and the surface is close to 30 Degrees , that's def ugly wow that's impressive that the GFS is able to pick up on low level surface cold down to the coast! rarely have I seen it portray surface temperatures accurately in this kind of situation, that's where mesoscale models like the NAM are actually useful. could this be a rare coastal plain icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would urge everyone to not pay attention to the finer details and focus on the improvements with the other features. This was not that far off from a much better solution. The evolution of the system was slower and therefore the WAA precip didn't arrive fast enough to be snow in the city. That will also need to be watched. The earlier on Tuesday that this starts, the colder aloft it will be. We want this to come in faster, that way it has less chance to amplify too much and has a better chance to catch a stronger PV before it retreats. If it slows down and amplifies, we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 wow that's impressive that the GFS is able to pick up on low level surface cold down to the coast! rarely have I seen it portray surface temperatures accurately in this kind of situation, that's where mesoscale models like the NAM are actually useful. could this be a rare coastal plain icestorm? The high is in a really good location as the storm comes in and its also expansive running back all the way across Canada, you can see the CAD signature evident even when the low is practically over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I didnt hate this run. I would hate it if it verified, but i dont think thats likely. I like a coastal better than a pure swfe. This iteration of a transfer was crap. It has so many ways to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol look at the GFS run at 180 hours, I smell a huge overrunning storm like PDII, 1046mb HP over us, disturbances in the SW, oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's colder and the low transfers further south than previous runs. Big improvement on this run. Remember, the 850 and 925mb lows also have to pass SE of us for there to be no changeover. If those lows pass NW of us, even with a surface low SE of us the primary will still be dominant and we will changeover. The coastal low has to take over much sooner, not just show up as a reflection on the coast while the primary is clearly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like this run was a close one. The HP was just to the north of NYS. It could be seeing the CAD Signature a bit better now. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z GGEM transfers the low just north of Ocean City Maryland. Not sure about temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z GGEM transfers the low just north of Ocean City Maryland. Not sure about temps though. 0z GGEM transfers the low just north of Ocean City Maryland. Not sure about temps though. Ice fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ice fest Snow maps show a few inches for NYC and then changes to rain. North and west of the city gets snow/Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Snow maps show a few inches for NYC and then changes to rain. North and west of the city gets snow/Ice. Can you post the map by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z GEFS ensembles are warm, even more so than the OP but they have a quicker transfer and the mean has a definite coastal south of Long Island. Guessing a large amount of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can you post the map by any chance? It's 4-6" for most of NNJ. Less east, a tad more NW. The icing would then be some of the worst this area has seen in awhile. Side note, the more of a front end dump we get the more it will help to lock in the low level cold air for when the ZR arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's 4-6" for most of NNJ. Less east, a tad more NW. The icing would then be some of the worst this area has seen in awhile. Side note, the more of a front end dump we get the more it will help to lock in the low level cold air for when the ZR arrives. Interesting. Could really be quite a mess, particularly outside of the urban heat of NYC, when you are talking about QPF of over 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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