DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Very wet solution. S/W looked a bit stronger. Wont take much for this to be a nice winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ah, early I thought things looked better, end result is a bit more of a front end dump. 4-6" of snow from KMMU NW and 2-4" east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I thknk the end results will be similar to last run Doesn't look great to me, verbatim. Looks like maybe a few hours of snow to slop around the city and coast, and quick change to ice inland. 850mb zero line is up to HPN as it starts precipitating heavily. Primary near Cincinnati without much sign of a secondary low. PV is yielding and beginning to dive into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The PV moves over Southern Canada and not SE Canada. That will support more rising heights over the Western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Blocking would have prevented the high from sliding East. A few days ago the PV was acting as more of a blocking mechanism. The trough out west was also less amplified. Looks like another low is forming along the front at hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ah, early I thought things looked better, end result is a bit more of a front end dump. 4-6" of snow from KMMU NW and 2-4" east and south. I thought it looked better too. Its too far out to really look into it, but I am sure we are not done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Perfect example this run of how Boston can do much better than we can on these SWFE events. Warm air hits a wall near the Ct/MA border and it takes forever for mid level warmth to reach Boston. This verbatim would be a couple of inches here and maybe 10" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The PV orientation is a lot better than what the Euro showed. Maybe, but Look at the GFS H5 height lines in comparison with 12z... its more amped, the ridge out west is bigger, and the se ridge exerts a stronger influence. Id have been shocked if this was a more suppressesive outcome given that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z DGEX is a really nice front end dump for a lot of us transferring to the coast. Looks like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have to accept this has to cut . Neg tilted trough in the panhandle with a SE ridge it cuts . The things to work out going forward is when does the primary give up and where does this or does this even secondary . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have to accept this has to cut . Neg tilted trough in the panhandle with a SE ridge it cuts . The things to work out going forward is when does the primary give up and where does this or does this even secondary . There are hints at some high latitude blocking developing and depressing the PV. That would force a quicker transfer. The PV has to hold firm and not allow the storm to cut too far before fully transfering to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have to accept this has to cut . Neg tilted trough in the panhandle with a SE ridge it cuts . The things to work out going forward is when does the primary give up and where does this or does this even secondary . completely agree.. if anything the biggest concern out of this will be ice in the N/W burbs... other wise its a little snow switching over to rain for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z DGEX is a really nice front end dump for a lot of us transferring to the coast. Looks like the GGEM. There would be maybe an inch or two of snow anywhere near the coast with this and a fast change to ice inland. The mid level warmth surges as soon as precip starts on that run. Luckily it's the DGEX. Unrelated, but it shows a very heavy strip of snow with the Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There are hints at some high latitude blocking developing and depressing the PV. That would force a quicker transfer. The PV has to hold firm and not allow the storm to cut too far before fully transfering to the coast. Confluence is not going to stop a NEG tilted trough in the SW in the face of a SE ridge from cutting . The analysis needS to begin does this die in Beckley or Buffalo , Does this Secondary off the Delmarva or Montauk . Once to PITT , we rain . I`m not saying we cant transfer early but the argument cant start with I think this can come to Hatteras from Amarillo as modeled now MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Confluence is not going to stop a NEG tilted trough in the SW in the face of a SE ridge from cutting . The analysis needS to begin does this die in Beckley or Buffalo , Does this Secondary off the Delmarva or Montauk . Once to PITT , we rain . I`m not saying we cant transfer early but the argument cant start with I think this can come to Hatteras from Amarillo as modeled now MO i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There would be maybe an inch or two of snow anywhere near the coast with this and a fast change to ice inland. The mid level warmth surges as soon as precip starts on that run. Luckily it's the DGEX. Unrelated, but it shows a very heavy strip of snow with the Monday system. Yeah looks like an area of .5 - 1" liquid on Mon but I don't buy it. For next week the DGEX looks bad for snow. Significant mid level warmth with big snows confined to NNY and NNE. I hope it's wrong but everything is trending toward a far west trof axis, just like the run up to this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Monday's system if it comes far enough North would help drop a fresh snow pack, and that would help lock in low level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GEFS has the low transfering off SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Once again the PV looks better through hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SE looks slightly weaker and SW is more neutral out west @ 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looking better through hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Starting as ZR in the city at 126. Snow line roughly I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looking better through hr 120. yea slp is weaker and further south but 850s are already warm @ 126, we need the transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Oh boy, heavy, heavy ZR at 129. Low level cold air really hanging tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Primary dying over NE West Virgina. Yay, transfer to the coast imminent. Edit: Still a sloppy transfer, but the primary is much further southeast, going to pass over southern NJ before transferring east of the benchmark. Big ice storm for the far NW interior and significant ice for most of NJ. This transfers 6-12 hours sooner and it's a totally different outcome. Great trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Primary dying over NE West Virgina. Yay, transfer to the coast imminent. Edit: Still a sloppy transfer, but the primary is much further southeast, going to pass over southern NJ before transferring east of the benchmark. Big ice storm for the far NW interior and significant ice for most of NJ. This transfers 6-12 hours sooner and it's a totally different outcome. Great trends. Yea good trend. Its not handling the transfer well at all though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea good trend. Its not handling the transfer well at all though The main thing to take from this is that the confluence was stronger and it forced the primary south and to eventually transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This doesn't show 1 flake of snow for most of nj and NYC....worst gfs run yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This was looking great for a delmarva transfer...and then a yucky looking 2 low set up at 500mb off LI at 135. Not sure how it made that leap, but all frames preceeding that looked decent. Good signs for future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This doesn't show 1 flake of snow for most of nj and NYC....worst gfs run yet.... I agree but it's because we end up with an ice storm which is the worst outcome in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.