IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's really pretty simple today. The idea of a weaker de-amplified system over all is pretty much off the table. It's going to phase far enough west to cut. That seems to be resolved. Does the confluence to the north hang strong enough to force the redevelopment off the coast? We might have to wait a few more days yet. Model mayhem continues. If you take away the ECMWF, the 12z trends were overall positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 probably seeing the cold air dam/drainage from the NE at bit better. When you say better for New England are you talking Boston or even down to my area? Connecticut and SE New England flip to rain. But the R/S line hangs close to Springfield at its warmest. Boston proper flips to rain late. R/S line up that way makes it to roughly to the NH beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 HPC still likes the redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's the problem I have with this sub forum.. If it doesn't show anything for immediate metro it's a " non event".. This storm still has the potential to produce for the interior.. 6"+ with ip/zr is still a sig event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's the problem I have with this sub forum.. If it doesn't show anything for immediate metro it's a " non event".. This storm still has the potential to produce for the interior.. 6"+ with ip/zr is still a sig event The Euro op was a non-event even for the far NW interior and that's why I called it out as such. Perhaps Long Island needs its own sub thread just like NW folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's the problem I have with this sub forum.. If it doesn't show anything for immediate metro it's a " non event".. This storm still has the potential to produce for the interior.. 6"+ with ip/zr is still a sig event It's just the way it is. SW CT gets no love from NYC or New England. Nothing you really can do about it, unlesss if you want to start your own message board only for hudson valley people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the op, although it's much colder and better for New England than the op.it's warmer than 0z and has a stronger primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So... it really doesn't look like the op? I'm all for deleting banter but this got a really good laugh out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still digging this.... Looks a lot like GEFS and GGEM Ens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's really pretty simple today. The idea of a weaker de-amplified system over all is pretty much off the table. It's going to phase far enough west to cut. That seems to be resolved. Does the confluence to the north hang strong enough to force the redevelopment off the coast? We might have to wait a few more days yet. Model mayhem continues. If you take away the ECMWF, the 12z trends were overall positive. This winter, nothing is really resolved until maybe 72 hours out. 72 hours out from the event last Tuesday, it was supposed to be a minor at best event for anyone. The progressive nature of the pattern will mean that shifts will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The high pressure looks more established and further west this run so far. The PV looks further east, more consolidated and more suppressive. It may not be enough to get it done this run, but the trend of improvement continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The high pressure looks more established and further west this run so far. The PV looks further east, more consolidated and more suppressive. It may not be enough to get it done this run, but the trend of improvement continues. talking wishfully here but if it trends, let it trend so that there will be little ice event towards the coast if it trends to a more solution some more. but you've been spot on today, the trends for a colder, quicker secondary development have certainly been great developments/trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The HP over the area is stronger on this run through HR 102. I see improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 talking wishfully here but if it trends, let it trend so that there will be little ice event towards the coast if it trends to a more solution some more. but you've been spot on today, the trends for a colder, quicker secondary development have certainly been great developments/trendsNot on the Euro and its ens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Out of all the model cycles the GFS has shown the worst scenario at 18z. I think we finally break that streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not on the Euro and its ens... true, overall improvement though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Out of all the model cycles the GFS has shown the worst scenario at 18z. I think we finally break that streak. worse case scenario as in what yanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The PV orientation is a lot better than what the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 worse case scenario as in what yanks? The least snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't think the storm can cut, more confluence up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Out of all the model cycles the GFS has shown the worst scenario at 18z. I think we finally break that streak. Could mean that it'll probably flip in the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 A bit more CAD taking place, you can see this looking at 850mb temps dropping over E PA at hour 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Out of all the model cycles the GFS has shown the worst scenario at 18z. I think we finally break that streak. Im lost, what do you mean streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's just the way it is. SW CT gets no love from NYC or New England. Nothing you really can do about it, unlesss if you want to start your own message board only for hudson valley people I dont know.. Ive seen the NE forum often refer to the notion that 'This is a SW Ct Winter' this year.. Maybe its jealousy! Whatever.. But the fact is, SW Ct is very definitely part of the Metro NY Area, along with a lot of other nearby burbs, including a nice chunk of the Hudson Valley and NE Ct, etc, etc.. Proof: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i dunno. doesn't look stellar to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We're snowing at hour 129 quite nicely from I-78 north. For once Monmouth County will be on the lower end of the accumulation range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I thknk the end results will be similar to last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hour 135 most flip to rain, before that west of the city over NJ was ice. Lower Hudson Valley still ice. The primary actually looks a little further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Im lost, what do you mean streak? In other words, this is as bad as it gets and we may start seeing more suppression solutions soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I thknk the end results will be similar to last runagreed...minor changes aloft at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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