SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's not true, if this system doesn't cut it has the potential to be the biggest event here in years. It was pretty clear this system would struggle due to a lack of confluence, weaker PV, and a lack of established low level cold. I said it would cut unless we see some kind of wildcard (transient blocking) appear as we get closer. I doubt the final solution is what the Euro shows right now and I think we will see more frozen than the Euro indicates, but this is far from a big time snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't think the wave for Monday has much to do with the chances for the Wed system. The GFS was very weak with it and south but still cut the low too far on Wed for a significant snow event. A stronger wave on Monday may actually help depress the baroclinic zone further behind it and help pull the PV east. I'm watching the trends for height rises over Greenland much more carefully-I'm guessing the Euro doesn't have this. What I'm saying is that with it coming further north, it's a sign that the subsidence is a bit more relaxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It was pretty clear this system would struggle due to a lack of confluence, weaker PV, and a lack of established low level cold. I said it would cut unless we see some kind of wildcard (transient blocking) appear as we get closer. A lot can happen still with the midweek system. Anyone writing it off or calling it the next PDII is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'll never understand the fetish that people have with strong coastals when you have a perfectly good SWFE event on the table. More times than not, coastals have big screw zones away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 As it is at hour 144 Most of the area at 850 is plus 5 -7 but the surface NW 287 and 80 surface temps are around 30 . whole .5 is falling . Flat out ugly By 150 its rain , but its 1 OP , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Oh yes. First it was jan 30- feb 3 ..period for snowstorm. We are getting nothing. Then everyone with the feb5-9 period. That doesn't look good. And now. We are talking about feb 5-15th period. Lol. Guess one has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rethink this, when has the Euro showed the same solution this winter, it is wildly inconsistent, it even showed a supressed overruning event, Whats wrong with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'll never understand the fetish that people have with strong coastals when you have a perfectly good SWFE event on the table. More times than not, coastals have big screw zones away from the coast. Coastals can have screw zones right on the coast too. 2/11/06 was maybe 10" in my town right on the coast while NYC 25 miles away had 27". 1/25/2000 dryslotted everyone east of Philly. Boxing Day's snow distribution over New England was like swiss cheese. 12/6/03 was the same way over Long Island and a lot of New England-some spots with 2 feet, some with 10". SWFE's almost always go to non-snow where I am and often to rain which washes what snow we get away. Of course anyone near the coast or the city wouldn't root on a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its also the EURO and has not done too well this winter. Too many variables in play. No one should be throwing in the towel. The ENS should be telling though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Canadian Ensembles have a 1008mb low centered northeast of OC MD at 114 hours...and have trended significantly faster with the coastal transfer and stronger with confluence. A lot of snow for many people here if they have the right idea. (Yanksfan posted this above but used an image which can't be posted so I had to hide that post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Canadian Ensembles have a 1008mb low centered northeast of OC MD at 114 hours...and have trended significantly faster with the coastal transfer and stronger with confluence. A lot of snow for many people here if they have the right idea. (Yanksfan posted this above but used an image which can't be posted so I had to hide that post). That is a pretty noteworthy development john. Secondary development around OC MD would help out even the coastal folks, hopefully if correct leads to less icing and more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does the canadian do anything with the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Canadian Ensembles have a 1008mb low centered northeast of OC MD at 114 hours...and have trended significantly faster with the coastal transfer and stronger with confluence. A lot of snow for many people here if they have the right idea. (Yanksfan posted this above but used an image which can't be posted so I had to hide that post). I think what we really want is a faster system, which wouldn't have as much time to amplify and might catch the stronger PV before it lifts away. If it slows down, it has more time to take advantage of the PV departing or interacting with the trough. Given the progressive pattern this winter so far, the faster idea may be correct. Let's hope anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Sorry a bit off-topic, but while the subject was somewhat brought up....Earthlight, a question....If I have, say, a weatherbell image that I'd like to post....if I post the link to that image, will it make the image appear just for people that have a membership to it ? Or can I not post them at all? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 with the GFS shifting S and E with a transfer on the PA/MD border on the GEFS, and now the GGEM ens showing a more southerly transfer --- certainly interested to see the Euro Ens. I still have a feeling this is going to be one nasty ice storm for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Canadian Ensembles have a 1008mb low centered northeast of OC MD at 114 hours...and have trended significantly faster with the coastal transfer and stronger with confluence. A lot of snow for many people here if they have the right idea. (Yanksfan posted this above but used an image which can't be posted so I had to hide that post). That sounds really fast like nearly a day faster than the Euro or gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 really, the fact you are way above average in snowfall and still with these posts? Oh yes. First it was jan 30- feb 3 ..period for snowstorm. We are getting nothing. Then everyone with the feb5-9 period. That doesn't look good. And now. We are talking about feb 5-15th period. Lol. Guess one has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Oh yes. First it was jan 30- feb 3 ..period for snowstorm. We are getting nothing. Then everyone with the feb5-9 period. That doesn't look good. And now. We are talking about feb 5-15th period. Lol. Guess one has to give. I don't understand why people simply bail on an event because of one model run. You think they would learn. And the talk about an event more than a week away as certainty??? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A lot can happen still with the midweek system. Anyone writing it off or calling it the next PDII is out to lunch. Anyone writing this off in the NYC metro is NOT out too lunch this storm is going to cut west - there might be a brief - brief period of snow and or ice at the start but this will be mainly rain which will wash away the remaining snowcover we have now -(what is left of it from the warm up over the weekend. The midweek storm that cuts will be followed by a very strong cold 1030 + high pressure north of us and maybe some blocking which will force the late week Feb 8 - 9 storm just south of us and providing us with the potential of a SECS and possibly MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Anyone writing this off in the NYC metro is NOT out too lunch this storm is going to cut west - there might be a brief - brief period of snow and or ice at the start but this will be mainly rain which will wash away the remaining snowcover we have now -(what is left of it from the warm up over the weekend. The midweek storm that cuts will be followed by a very strong cold 1030 + high pressure north of us and maybe some blocking which will force the late week Feb 8 - 9 storm just south of us and providing us with the potential of a SECS and possibly MECS It might but I think it's way too soon to say it will cut west. I don't think it will take very much to make it favorable for more of us. And if it cuts west it's likely not a big snow maker inland also-it's likely an icestorm. It's also way too soon to say what will happen with the following storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 No...the more the Monday system cuts the better for the mid-week system The trajectory of the Monday system after it impacts the area does not take it far enough NE into the Maritimes for it to really become a good 50/50 low or blowup...now if the 2/5 system cuts and blows up (which it very well may) it would help significantly at ensuring the 2/8 storm is an all snow event here nd could act as a 50/50 low to slow it down and make it a longer duration event...the Euro has been bad but remember it did get Sunday's event right and now the GFS is starting to move towards it on the Monday event...I would not at all be shocked if the Monday event turns into a relatively significant snow event for a good part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Anyone writing this off in the NYC metro is NOT out too lunch this storm is going to cut west - there might be a brief - brief period of snow and or ice at the start but this will be mainly rain which will wash away the remaining snowcover we have now -(what is left of it from the warm up over the weekend. The midweek storm that cuts will be followed by a very strong cold 1030 + high pressure north of us and maybe some blocking which will force the late week Feb 8 - 9 storm just south of us and providing us with the potential of a SECS and possibly MECS LOL, it's still 5-6 days away-anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Anyone writing this off in the NYC metro is NOT out too lunch this storm is going to cut west - there might be a brief - brief period of snow and or ice at the start but this will be mainly rain which will wash away the remaining snowcover we have now -(what is left of it from the warm up over the weekend. The midweek storm that cuts will be followed by a very strong cold 1030 + high pressure north of us and maybe some blocking which will force the late week Feb 8 - 9 storm just south of us and providing us with the potential of a SECS and possibly MECS You are Out To Lunch My sir! Models are trending east and if anything we could get a redeveloping coastal that Delivers! Nothing Is off the table yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rethink this, when has the Euro showed the same solution this winter, it is wildly inconsistent, it even showed a supressed overruning event, Whats wrong with it? The Euro suddenly seems to have woke up, the GFS moved towards it 3-4 days ago on the Sat night/Sun AM system and now it appears its doing the same on Monday...the shifting pattern may have finally allowed the Euro to get an edge over the GFS or its simply just a fluke...I am however very suspicious of the very good model agreement on the 2/5 storm, again even down to the NOGAPS the solutions are all similar which leads me to believe we are still going to see a major shift to something different in the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z Canadian ensembles, strong CAD signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the op, although it's much colder and better for New England than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the op, although it's much colder and better for New England than the op. So... it really doesn't look like the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 So... it really doesn't look like the op? It does as far as the placement of the features. And it does in terms of sensible weather for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So... it really doesn't look like the op? He's probably speaking of slp location. Although that's just a guess bc I haven't looked at the ensembles yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the op, although it's much colder and better for New England than the op. probably seeing the cold air dam/drainage from the NE at bit better. When you say better for New England are you talking Boston or even down to my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.