PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12Z GEFS transfers the low to the coast just south of here when it reaches just south of Mayland/PA border http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014013012/gfs-ens_uv250_us.html Nice the Primary into WV and thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ugly map for the coast for sure. GGEM is usually overamplified. But like I said, we also need the 850 and 925mb lows southeast of us, not just the surface low. Otherwise the mid and low levels can still torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS is good through 138...141hrs is borderline and then it's all rain after that. The Low pressure tracks into western New York and transfers to the secondary well after its too late. Short of a transfer, the low needs to shift 300-400 miles SE if we want to get snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not a bad run. Trends guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z GGEM is mostly rain for the coast and a severe ice storm for most of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z GGEM is mostly rain for the coast and a severe ice storm for most of the interior. Keep it that way please lol. Trends were positive today for sure but the ice storm signature is real on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Keep it that way please lol. Trends were positive today for sure but the ice storm signature is real on this one. You want a rain/icestorm here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You want a rain/icestorm here? I dont mind one, front end dump to IP/ZR preserves the snowpack longer and I will take it anyday over rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does anyone else see the chance of a sneaky secondary along the front on Monday, that is something the models seem to be slightly hinting at and arent handling well, which is giving them more trouble for this system Without a doubt that is a legit threat, especially southern areas, around 6-7 of the ensemble members at 108 hours are north of the Op and 2-3 are significantly north...you can even argue one is far enough north its not even snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not liking the look of the ECMWF so far through hr 114. The PV doesn't look as good as the 12z GFS and height rises are already starting to occur over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You want a rain/icestorm here? Hell no! Rain or snow. Ice storms are downright terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Honestly I know people are in love with this fantasy wave on Monday but I really think it hurts our chances at the next system. We want the confluence to stay strong to the north. Low is headed for Louisville. The warm air aloft is going to arrive right at the onset of precip I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well at 138 we're snow NW of the city but a huge chunk of IP/ZR covers a lot of PA, MD and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Low to Buffalo, we're all rain south of I-80. North of 80 is an ice fest. Secondary forming right over south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Honestly I know people are in love with this fantasy wave on Monday but I really think it hurts our chances at the next system. We want the confluence to stay strong to the north. Low is headed for Louisville. The warm air aloft is going to arrive right at the onset of precip I believe. Yea it probably will hurt our chances depending where it ends up but snow is snow. This isnt looking that great right now but we should have a better idea by sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF is having the same problem as the GFS, transfer never really happens. Heavy rain for all hour 150. Non-Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Actually the more north/amplified the 1st storm is, the better as it forces confluence/high pressure south on its backside. We want the 1st storm to cut as much as possible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yea it probably will hurt our chances but snow is snow. Why anyone would rather have an inch or two over the possibility of 1-2 feet is mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Actually the more north/amplified the 1st storm is, the better as it forces confluence/high pressure south on its backside. We want the 1st storm to cut as much as possible.... What are you talking about? You're putting all your eggs in the basket of the day ten system? You haven't learned yet that it won't look anything like what it currently shows in a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I have fond memories from my childhood (1998) ice storm in Montreal.... No power, no school, no heating.... Welcome to NJ circa October 2012. Wasn't ice but the results were the same. Don't want to experience that ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why anyone would rather have an inch or two over the possibility of 1-2 feet is mind boggling. We were never going to have 1-2' with the Feb 5 system, the best scenario was some snow to sleet/ZR and then probably rain. The one after however is another story. Like was said, there were rainstorms prior to big snowstorms like in Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why anyone would rather have an inch or two over the possibility of 1-2 feet is mind boggling. Lol ill take 2 feet but i dont control the weather so a little snow is better than just a snow to rain mess as currently shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We get what amounts to a strong frontal boundary crossing the area on the Euro. Brief ice to moderate rain. 1.50-2" of rain, more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We were never going to have 1-2' with the Feb 5 system, the best scenario was some snow to sleet/ZR and then probably rain. The one after however is another story. Like was said, there were rainstorms prior to big snowstorms like in Jan 1996. That's not true, if this system doesn't cut it has the potential to be the biggest event here in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What are you talking about? You're putting all your eggs in the basket of the day ten system? You haven't learned yet that it won't look anything like what it currently shows in a few days? He is right. This particular d10 system is not fantasy. It's happening, question is where it tracks. We want the 5th system to cut big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We get what amounts to a strong frontal boundary crossing the area on the Euro. Brief ice to moderate rain. 1.50-2" of rain, more south. How are the temps looking during/after the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why anyone would rather have an inch or two over the possibility of 1-2 feet is mind boggling. I don't think the wave for Monday has much to do with the chances for the Wed system. The GFS was very weak with it and south but still cut the low too far on Wed for a significant snow event. A stronger wave on Monday may actually help depress the baroclinic zone further behind it and help pull the PV east. I'm watching the trends for height rises over Greenland much more carefully-I'm guessing the Euro doesn't have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's not true, if this system doesn't cut it has the potential to be the biggest event here in years. Doubtful. The setup for the 9th is far superior. And, now, with clear snow chances on Monday, I could care less about the 5th. It's an ugly thread the needle type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Why anyone would rather have an inch or two over the possibility of 1-2 feet is mind boggling. Wed never had any model support for a 1 to 2 foot snowstorm , We said from the start if this deepened out of the panhandle it cuts . If the models show snow Monday , You want us to ignore it or all at once blow it South to please anyone`s area for Wed . Come on dude , you are too emotional the one behind is the bigger one . Wed isn`t set in stone but please chill . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What are you talking about? You're putting all your eggs in the basket of the day ten system? You haven't learned yet that it won't look anything like what it currently shows in a few days? No...the more the Monday system cuts the better for the mid-week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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