NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Precip on the GFS looks to last from roughly 03z Wed through 06z Thursday or so. So a solid 24hour+ event. Snow maps show 2-4" front end dump for NYC, Long Island and NNJ south of I-78. North of I-78 in NJ and northern PA is a 4-6" front end dump. and how much ice ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 850mb low has to be south or east of us for the area to stay all snow. When it remains closed and goes NW of us, it practically guarantees a switch to at least sleet/ZR. The secondary will need to develop fast enough to close off an 850 and 925 low southeast of us. Without that, it eventually will change over. I think it's becoming pretty clear this won't be an all snow event for most of us, but I think it will possibly resemble the December storm, maybe a tad colder with a prolonged period of ice, if people are into that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 and how much ice ? areas not too far N&W I see about .5-.75" depending on where you are. awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Way too early for any specifics. But the GFS has trended much higher with heights over Greenland as it is now developing a late-in-the-game pseudo blocking feature. We're starting to see results as this trends to develop earlier/faster and so the PV is tending to look more consolidated and farther south with the confluent flow on the newer model runs. I would watch this very carefully. We have seen blocks appear in this area inside 90 hours several times this season. I've attached the aforementioned height change map over the past 2 OP runs below (valid at 144 hours and the changes are occurring prior to this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Didn't the 12/14 storm trend colder and colder as we got closer (with a somewhat similar look) because of the PV? Seems it's all about the transfer and how far South it happens which would help out everyone, especially the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I still like this storm as a possible analog. It shows you what can happen if the Polar Vortex can flex its muscles over New England when you have strong energy headed for the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think its way to early to call this for anyone in our area. Not with the PV moving south and a possible earlier secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think it's becoming pretty clear this won't be an all snow event for most of us, but I think it will possibly resemble the December storm, maybe a tad colder with a prolonged period of ice, if people are into that sort of thing. It's still way too early to pinpoint specific impacts. The major snow events we had this month shifted around considerably just within 24-48 hours. The progressive nature of this pattern will cause model shifts for quite some time to come. We just have to keep hoping for a strong and east PV which stays a separate entity from the developing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Way too early for any specifics. But the GFS has trended much higher with heights over Greenland as it is now developing a late-in-the-game pseudo blocking feature. We're starting to see results as this trends to develop earlier/faster and so the PV is tending to look more consolidated and farther south with the confluent flow on the newer model runs. I would watch this very carefully. We have seen blocks appear in this area inside 90 hours several times this season. I've attached the aforementioned height change map over the past 2 OP runs below (valid at 144 hours and the changes are occurring prior to this). GFS_500mbHgt12hrChange_nhem_f147.png That would be a huge game changer for us, if there can be some sort of blocking develop over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That would be a huge game changer for us, if there can be some sort of blocking develop over Greenland. Yeah, it definitely isn't a textbook block by any means but notable to see it trending towards higher heights over the last 12-24 hours in that area. This certainly explains why the PV has trended more consolidated and the confluent flow is appearing to push farther south. The blocking continues to develop after the system anyway...so it sets us up for the period 2-4 days later regardless of whether this storm cuts into Buffalo or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 At least for the northern parts of NJ, the snow map has looked better for each run in succession from 18z to 0z to 6z to 12z... I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, it definitely isn't a textbook block by any means but notable to see it trending towards higher heights over the last 12-24 hours in that area. This certainly explains why the PV has trended more consolidated and the confluent flow is appearing to push farther south. The blocking continues to develop after the system anyway...so it sets us up for the period 2-4 days later regardless of whether this storm cuts into Buffalo or not. Oh boy that is going to help the weekend system john. Im excited for next weekend regardless what this storm does. I started a thread for the weekend storm already and would love to have your updates/insight on it. Back to this storm the block being picked up on models and better PV orientation may help us in the end even the coastal areas but we'd need to start seeing the positive changes keep trending into the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Even with unfavorable 850`s and the primary holding on long , The highest temps found in CNJ are around 34. hrs 150 - 156 Unlike Dec when we rorared into the 50`s this time it gets to 38 into SNJ and onto the EAST end of Long Island . Which tells me the model is really seeing the CAD . If you redevelop just 6 hours earlier which would be possible if we get just the slightest press of the PV . This is not as far off as one may think , based on where we sit now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Even with unfavorable 850`s and the primary holding on long , The highest temps found in CNJ are around 34. hrs 150 - 156 Unlike Dec when we rorared into the 50`s this time it gets to 38 into SNJ and onto the EAST end of Long Island . Which tells me the model is really seeing the CAD . If you redevelop just 6 hours earlier which would be possible if we get just the slightest press of the PV . This is not as far off as one may think , based on where we sit now . wow where in CNJ did it get into the 50's in Dec? Here in New Brunswick only got up to 34, must have been a crazy coastal front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Does anyone else see the chance of a sneaky secondary along the front on Monday, that is something the models seem to be slightly hinting at and arent handling well, which is giving them more trouble for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 wow where in CNJ did it get into the 50's in Dec? Here in New Brunswick only got up to 34, must have been a crazy coastal front I remember that coastal front..High Point was in the single digits or teens IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 wow where in CNJ did it get into the 50's in Dec? Here in New Brunswick only got up to 34, must have been a crazy coastal front in Dec we Colts Neck after 5 inches we went form 26 to 52 in 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I remember that coastal front..High Point was in the single digits or teens IIRC. Yup. High Point was at 7 and ACY was at like 57 (I remember noting a 50 degree temperature contrast in a rather small state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup. High Point was at 7 and ACY was at like 57 (I remember noting a 50 degree temperature contrast in a rather small state! The temp in Long Beach went from 26 to 46 in a few hours. That coastal front was absolutely ferocious. All our snow (we had close to 3") was gone in a flash. It actually felt balmy outside at warmest (I think we got to 48 that night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I still like this storm as a possible analog. It shows you what can happen if the Polar Vortex can flex its muscles over New England when you have strong energy headed for the Ohio Valley. huh? is that PDII? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I still like this storm as a possible analog. It shows you what can happen if the Polar Vortex can flex its muscles over New England when you have strong energy headed for the Ohio Valley. That's a bold analog to show and probably not even close. That storm had a 1040+ mb high stretched to the north providing ample low level cold. Would love to see a trend in the pseudo block up north as it could really help with the PV and confluence as was said. It would be a shame to waste such a moisture laden storm with mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The natural barocliniticy of the east coast plus the surface/friction effects with land, especially the App mountains, will always promote some surface development near the coast. But with the modeled trof axis so far west, there is little chance for the coastal to strengthen or the primary to weaken. By the time the primary fills, most of the precip (except maybe a lingering firehose to the south) would be over... with just a weak 2nd coastal sliding E. We need upper level divergence near the east coast to support a transfer. That's not how this is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thx...similar to the GFS I guess....maybe some decent front end snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What does the surface look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What does the surface look like? Warmer than the other guidance city S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM a cutter? Ugly map for the coast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12Z GEFS transfers the low to the coast just south of here when it reaches just south of Mayland/PA border http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014013012/gfs-ens_uv250_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Anyone have GEFS Ens Mean. I'm looking at the individuals on e-wall and there do not appear to be any members really wound up and into the lakes / Detroit like 18z last night --- but def. some late transfers like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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