earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The PV still looks to be elongating too far back to the west and interacting with the trough over the Southwest US. The basic synoptics of this argue that when this happens, the SE Ridge is going to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The trough out west is really amplified but the PV seems to be holding it's own. At least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The southeast ridge is starting to amplify some at hour 123. 564DM heights up to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CAD signature down that APPs at 126, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS looks more amplifed over the SW. This likely will cut hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS looks more amplifed over the SW. This likely will cut hard. My only argument is that the polar vortex has improved for another run in a row. If you look north of the Great Lakes, you can see how the height field is pressing southward and this has trended south every run since yesterday. So while the primary low will cut into the MS Valley at the very least, the confluent flow being further south could help cause the secondary to redevelop faster and farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Low headed for Louisville however signs of a secondary already forming in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 My only argument is that the polar vortex has improved for another run in a row. If you look north of the Great Lakes, you can see how the height field is pressing southward and this has trended south every run since yesterday. So while the primary low will cut into the MS Valley at the very least, the confluent flow being further south could help cause the secondary to redevelop faster and farther southeast. This is going to redevelop. In any event heavy snow I-78 north hour 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 At 138 hours, the City looks like Ice. Warm 850s but the surface temps are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Certainly a snow bomb to start at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 My only argument is that the polar vortex has improved for another run in a row. If you look north of the Great Lakes, you can see how the height field is pressing southward and this has trended south every run since yesterday. So while the primary low will cut into the MS Valley at the very least, the confluent flow being further south could help cause the secondary to redevelop faster and farther southeast. Yes, confluence is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Strengthening confluent flow to the north is visibly forcing the shortwave to move east and deamplify at 138 hours. But the primary has gotten too far north already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nasty ice signature at hour 141 from the GSP NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Primary dying a slow death over western PA at hour 144. City heavy rain. Most of NNJ north of I-80 is heavy ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The primary holds on too long on this run. The GFS was trying to transfer but failed to do so. This looks like a nasty icestorm just to the north of NYC. Close for NYC but no cigar. The confluence was stronger this run. It has been the trend for the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Areas north of I-80 never really make it above freezing. That looks to be the boundary. South of that is a brief front end dump, followed by ice followed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Holy heck. STILL ice in Sussex County and HV at 147. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The primary holds on too long on this run. The GFS was trying to transfer but failed to do so. This looks like a nasty icestorm just to the north of NYC. Close for NYC but no cigar. The confluence was stronger this run. It has been the trend for the past few runs. If you follow the trends it's pretty clear where this is headed. The trends with the Polar vortex are noticeably good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NYC receives a few inches before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The primary holds on too long on this run. The GFS was trying to transfer but failed to do so. This looks like a nasty icestorm just to the north of NYC. Close for NYC but no cigar. The confluence was stronger this run. It has been the trend for the past few runs. The 850mb low has to be south or east of us for the area to stay all snow. When it remains closed and goes NW of us, it practically guarantees a switch to at least sleet/ZR. The secondary will need to develop fast enough to close off an 850 and 925 low southeast of us. Without that, it eventually will change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Messy evolution aloft, too. Turns into a total mess by 150 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Holy heck. STILL ice in Sussex County and HV at 147. Sheesh. Yeah we're really in for it. Especially the Rt.23 corridor north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 As long as the PV continues to move south it will probably get bettre for us on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good news is we dont ice on the coast. PV looks better but no where near beneficial for coastal areas yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We're all raining moderately by hour 156 as the mess of a coastal pulls away. I think we're still pretty far away from a final result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I counted about 9 hours of snow followed by 9 hours of ice and then some showers/drizzle. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good news is we dont ice on the coast. PV looks better but no where near beneficial for coastal areas yet This could also get cold enough so that it's all snow inland and ice for the coast. You coastal folks have your work cut out for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 probably more zr than advertised especially just inland away from south facing shores if the GFS is correct, it's not very good at picking up on low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I dont like 1 trend thats 2 runs in a row of holding the primary too long , so it doesn`t redevelop near the Del Marva but Montauk . Surfaces really argue for major ICE not too far outside the city . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Precip on the GFS looks to last from roughly 03z Wed through 06z Thursday or so. So a solid 24hour+ event. Snow maps show 2-4" front end dump for NYC, Long Island and NNJ south of I-78. North of I-78 in NJ and northern PA is a 4-6" front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.