SleetStormNJ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 6:24 PM, earthlight said: Raw data snow and sleet totals from the Euro are 6-8" for NYC and all of NJ north of Trenton. Amazing what we may be in the midst of. And credit to you sir for sniffing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sounds like the kind of storm where JFK goes rain and NYC stays frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 6:46 PM, yhbrooklyn said: Sounds like the kind of storm where JFK goes rain and NYC stays frozen. It sounds like even JFK is mostly frozen based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone know the timing of this one? I am suppose to be in Fairfield, NJ at 0800 Wednesday morning, but I have a feeling the roads for this one will be worse than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 6:58 PM, chrisNJ said: Anyone know the timing of this one? I am suppose to be in Fairfield, NJ at 0800 Wednesday morning, but I have a feeling the roads for this one will be worse than today. That's probably when the worst of it is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 6:58 PM, chrisNJ said: Anyone know the timing of this one? I am suppose to be in Fairfield, NJ at 0800 Wednesday morning, but I have a feeling the roads for this one will be worse than today. I believe most models have the storm starting around 06z, which would be 1am Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 6:48 PM, nzucker said: It sounds like even JFK is mostly frozen based on the Euro. Even by 12z everyone is still frozen. I'm surprised these colder trends are continuing, normally these kind of storms inch north over time. Starting to look like a 3-6" event for most of the city without much plain rain except on the immediate shore, and even then it looks like a 33-34F rain that won't melt a lot of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 15z SREF's have a good front end dump north of I-80, then what amounts to a major ice storm for a lot of NNJ away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SREF ticked colder and farther south...still looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 7:34 PM, earthlight said: SREF ticked colder and farther south...still looks pretty good. Less ice/sleet for Long Island and more Snow? Based on other models, this seems to be the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 7:34 PM, earthlight said: SREF ticked colder and farther south...still looks pretty good. What's the total qpf for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM looks great at 36. Heavy snow from most of 95 and to the N and W. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ensembles are slightly colder than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM is a major, major ice storm. Surface hangs around the city, 850's well northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 8:18 PM, YanksFan27 said: 18z NAM is a major, major ice storm. Surface hangs around the city, 850's well northwest. LI still changes to rain and back to snow correct? Im going with 4-6 total for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18Z NAM has the rain is confined to Suffolk County and SNJ. Areas NW of there is IP/FRZ, but mostly FRZ. Serious Ice Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Im glad i wont contend with that then on LI but snowpack should still be very much intact after this storm though so thats a good thing going into what may be an historical weekend if all goes to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How much snow before switch to ice for the surrounding area? (Wrt 18z nam) Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 8:18 PM, YanksFan27 said: 18z NAM is a major, major ice storm. Surface hangs around the city, 850's well northwest. Nam has been the warmest along with the ggem, so that's a good sign... As the current storm pulls away is should even get colder and follow the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 8:34 PM, user13 said: Nam has been the warmest along with the ggem, so that's a good sign... As the current storm pulls away is should even get colder and follow the gfs The NAM is very cold at the surface and warm aloft, and to me that makes perfect sense. It's not the case of the low levels being too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 850 0C line was over the Poconos on the 12Z NAM. Now the 850 0C line is over NW NJ on the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 8:41 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The 850 0C line was over the Poconos on the 12Z NAM. Now the 850 0C line is over NW NJ on the 18Z NAM. As Yanksfan was alluding to, the more significant development is how cold the low levels are. Temperatures are in the low to mid 20's anywhere west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM shows around .75 QPF for most the area. Seems the QPF is getting a little lower. Though the SREFS showed 1inch plus around most the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The NAM at least for NYC proper is mainly sleet when you look at the soundings, the model wants to show FZRA but the depth of the cold layer is generally deep enough until 15Z for it to be sleet...it shows snow for 1hour then sleet but I'm inclined to think the snow may hold for 3-4 hours...if I had to guess for near NYC, snow 05-08z, sleet 09-15z then FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 8:56 PM, jjvesnow said: NAM shows around .75 QPF for most the area. Seems the QPF is getting a little lower. Though the SREFS showed 1inch plus around most the area. I was wondering that myself. Seems like the numbers are dropping a little each run. Does that have anything to do with today's system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 9:04 PM, chietanen said: I was wondering that myself. Seems like the numbers are dropping a little each run. Does that have anything to do with today's system? yea today system tapped a lot of the gulfs moisture but it only appeared on the runs 18 hours out so we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 9:04 PM, chietanen said: I was wondering that myself. Seems like the numbers are dropping a little each run. Does that have anything to do with today's system? I think this was always suppose to be a 8-10" storm for us in the deep interior. With WAA snow anything is possible though. It should come in like a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshore Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Long time lurker stepping out from the shadows for this potentially amazing period of winter weather...With respect to the possible changeover to plain rain Wednesday; if NYC and Nassau are modeled out by the 12z NAM to be all frozen, I would be very skeptical that all of Suffolk County goes wet. This could be the case of the old "north of the LIE" coming into play. From my recollections, the scenario depicted by the NAM rarely plays out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 4KM has NYC with 1"QPF... never goes above freezing. Some SN, IP and FRZA. That sounds nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 if anyone wanted a visual of the 18z Nam, here it is….this better trend colder above the surface or we are really in deep trouble…wow…Hopefully the euro is correct in its snowier solution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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