Atlanta Snowpocalypse 2014

[sctvman]

No television broadcast for UNC-GT tonight because of the storm. Vanderbilt-UGA not on either.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Simply put I believe there was a unique combination of factors that lead to this event. Here is a list of factors that by themselves may not mean much but added together get you what happened yesterday.

1. Late shift towards more precip getting brought north than originally though

I felt that the NWS reacted well to the change in models but I wasn't a fan of changing the Winter Storm Watch to an advisory and then to a warning for the Atlanta metro. This likely added some confusion to people who didn't see the change until perhaps they were already at work or on the way. Yes, they were on top of central Georgia counties with the early winter storm warning but IMO looking back on it appears to have been a mistake not including the metro and it's very large population in the original warning.

2. Temperatures in the mid and lower 20's during and after the event.

3. Storm hitting at midday

4. Not enough snow and ice removal and treatment trucks.

I saw some areas that had obviously been salted and sanded but I did not see a single truck and there were not many spot that got salted. It seemed limited to only bridges and not all of them were treated.

5. The cold snap that cancelled schools last week.

I think it made some complacent in their views of how serious weather can be. Most didn't take it seriously, and still don't.

All along they were saying a possible big snowstorm for counties JUST south of Metro Atlanta. Maybe that should have made everyone cautious and realize that MAYBE just MAYBE the snow could shift just a tiny bit northward and hit Atlanta.

[LithiaWx]

All along they were saying a possible big snowstorm for counties JUST south of Metro Atlanta. Maybe that should have made everyone cautious and realize that MAYBE just MAYBE the snow could shift just a tiny bit northward and hit Atlanta.

If I remember correctly there was wording to that effect very early on. I don't fault the NWS for this and think the opposite in that regard. The issue I believe is the general public right or wrong doesn't read the fine details. They can hardly tell the difference between a warning, advisory, and watch. Sadly another more simplistic scale should probably be investigated if it hasn't already.

[SnowGator]

All along they were saying a possible big snowstorm for counties JUST south of Metro Atlanta. Maybe that should have made everyone cautious and realize that MAYBE just MAYBE the snow could shift just a tiny bit northward and hit Atlanta.

Most people just don't think that way. They see it as the opposite - the snow is NOT forecast for my area therefore I'm going to work/school etc. So many people just don't have the luxury of deciding to take a day off or work from home.

[BIG FROSTY]

If I remember correctly there was wording to that effect very early on. I don't fault the NWS for this and think the opposite in that regard. The issue I believe is the general public right or wrong doesn't read the fine details. They can hardly tell the difference between a warning, advisory, and watch. Sadly another more simplistic scale should probably be investigated if it hasn't already.

Glad you got home safe, although I no it wasn't fun having to walk in that kind of weather...

[jburns]

Most people just don't think that way. They see it as the opposite - the snow is NOT forecast for my area therefore I'm going to work/school etc. So many people just don't have the luxury of deciding to take a day off or work from home.

 

Yep.  Not showing up and losing a day's pay is a tough decision for some folks. If you stay home and nothing develops, getting fired is also a possibility.  Obviously its a very complicated problem. One that most likely will not be solved, primarily because the situation does not arise often enough to force the changes that would be a long term solution.

[NavarreDon]

This opinion may not be popular, but after having watched some of the scenes and read some of the first-hand accounts here and on social media about the terrible situation that confronted people in Atlanta, I'm not going to ignore this report. In fact, I very much dislike writing these kinds of messages.

 

My focus is strictly on the station and personnel who used the 0.1" graphic. It does not concern the many private and public sector meteorologists who did not use the graphic cited in the message to which I'm responding. Indeed, a number of the meteorologists here at AmWx did a vastly superior job in discussing things leading up to the storm.

 

My points concerning the 0.1" forecast(s):

 

1. There was no rational, repeat no rational, basis for that  0.1" graphic. None. The computer guidance 60 hours ahead of the event was showing the potential for several inches of snow in and around Atlanta. Moreover, agreement and run-to-run continuity on the models was good.

 

2. The Skew-T soundings were consistently showing a snow event for the greater Atlanta area (NAM and GFS soundings).

 

3. The snowfall was not a "rare" event for Atlanta (headlines to that effect are incorrect). Over the past 30 years, such events have occurred on average of once every 2.3 years. Even if those using the graphic might not have been aware of this reality, it truly can snow in Atlanta and snow can accumulate there.

 

4. When there are uncommon events, it also can be helpful to dig into past events for additional insight into possibilities. The 500 mb pattern was similar to a composite from the 2/6-7/1980 and 3/1-2/1980 events, which brought 1.4" and 2.7" respectively to Atlanta. Some time spent understanding the past can help one in dealing with present challenges from a risk assessment perspective.

 

The work day is sufficiently long to accommodate a thorough review of the models, ensembles, and to look into past relevant events. The combination of reasonable time management and reasonable workplace productivity would allow for all of this. In turn, this focused effort would translate into better forecasts on account of better information and better insight into climatological risks. In this case, it certainly would have avoided the debacle of the use of a 0.1" snowfall graphic, as the models and climatology all indicated that there was no rational basis for using such a graphic.

 

Use of this graphic suggests:

 

1. Unfamiliarity with the models (globals and high-resolution ones) and their performance -- existence, understanding/reading them, or both.

 

2. Possible inability to read/understand Skew-T soundings.

 

3. Substantial bias concerning Atlanta's snowfall climatology (basically an "it can't snow here" mentality).

 

4. Possible over-reliance on "in-house" models that imply a great deal of precision but perform well below the globals or commonly-used high-resolution models (NAM, RGEM, etc.).

 

IMO, the person or people who repeatedly showed the graphic should be sent to a professional continuing education course dealing with snowfall forecasting to develop the requisite skills/knowledge. AMS and Met schools almost certainly offer a wide variety of such courses. He/They should also be requiered to study the local area's climatology (know the big storms, know the frequency of events, etc.).. Passively living in an area, even for a long time, simply does not guarantee understanding of an area's climatology.

 

In addition, it might be wise for the station to have an experienced meteorologist (or retired meteorologist) who has extensive experience with snowfall forecasting on retainer during the winter to lead in the development of snowfall forecasts when a snowstorm threatens. The knowledge and ability of the person/people who used the 0.1" graphic unambiguously fell short of what was needed and the station's viewers were not well-served. The station should also reduce reliance on inferior in-house models that produce such graphics. Their precision is a mirage when one is dealing with a real performance gap relative to the global and widely-used high-resolution models (all of which handled this storm quite well). The in-house models can complement the global and high-resolution models. They are not a substitute for them. When disagreement exists, one should rely on the latter set of guidance.

 

Had the storm behaved dramatically differently from what the guidance suggested or had the guidance shown poor agreement and little run-to-run continuity, that would be an entirely different matter. In this case, the storm was both well-modeled and well-behaved in the Atlanta area. It also fell into the parameters of two events that occurred during similar upper air patterns.

 

On the larger issues beyond the forecast, I do believe Atlanta needs to develop a comprehensive snow management plan. If such a plan exists, it failed so badly that it is all but unworkable. Aspects would include identifying known "trouble" spots, developing a protocol involving pre-treatment of surfaces giving priority to the trouble spots and critical areas, salting/sanding, and plowing. The plan would also entail public service recommendations that people who work in areas most prone to difficulty take the day off, a communications strategy to assure that the maximum number of people are reached in a timely basis (easier today with smartphones, tablets, the Internet, etc., than in the past). The plan's performance should be examined on a regular basis with needed adjustments being made.

 

In the longer-run, the gap between the area's rapid population growth (a good thing economically and socially) and infrastructure needs to be addressed through meaningful infrastructure investment. Whether that investment is funded by reallocating expenditures or increasing taxes or some combination is a policy choice. The infrastructure gap needs to be addressed.

 

In the end, my empathy goes out to the people in the Atlanta area who suffered greatly. The great tragedy of this is that this was, in part, an avoidable crisis. Forecasting aspects e.g., the forecast of 0.1" that was never in the proverbial ballpark, and urgent need for a comprehensive snow management plan should be addressed. Failure to do so will lead to a much higher risk of a repeat situation than would otherwise be the case.

 

Quoting this again in case anyone missed it. imo this might be one of the single best posts in the history of the Eastern/American Weather forums & there have been many of them! Although parts would have to be simplified or further explained for the general public it should be forwarded to every major newspaper in the state of GA for editorial purposes. There hasn't been a dramatic loss of life in this event but, what if one of those stranded school buses had 25 frozen children in it? If the Metro Atlanta area continues down this path there will be. If the Cities, County's, & or the state can't admit to mistakes and correct them the Federal Government should step in and do it for them. The time is not for finger pointing, it's time to start analyzing what's right and what's wrong so work can get started on correcting the short comings. Sorry for the rant but, nothing makes me madder than incompetent people doing a insufficient job then blaming others for their shoddy work.  

[LithiaWx]

I did miss that post. Don, that was a very good read and I would like to thank you for taking the time to visit and post in the southeast forum during this event. I also would like to say thank you to everyone who wished me well for making it home last night.

[Mooner]

Hundreds of kids still stranded at North Atlanta High School. Unreal.

[Winterhawk]

Now folks who were stuck and had to leave their cars and walk are finding out about the next financial impact; towing and potential storage fees.  Just goes from bad to worse; rubbing salt in the wounds.

[audioguy3107]

One other thing to remember about staying home is that the Atlanta suburbs are absolutely FLOODED with retail.  Retailers are the absolute worst when it comes to making safety decisions for their employees and families.  For the most part they are going to stay open to make an extra buck regardless of the situation (I'm sure there are a couple of exceptions).  For thousands and thousands of local employees to just "stay home" yesterday just wasn't an option unless you want to get fired.  It'll be very interesting to see how the local media and the NWS cover the next winter weather threat around here, it'll be fascinating to see what decisions are going to be made and how quickly they're made.  I may get permanently banned from this board...... ....but perhaps we should put it off until next winter........I think Atlanta has just about had it with the cold!

[Mooner]

Now folks who were stuck and had to leave their cars and walk are finding out about the next financial impact; towing and potential storage fees.  Just goes from bad to worse; rubbing salt in the wounds.

 

Too bad they didn't save that salt for the roads...

[nzucker]

 Don, the hills are the key in Atl.  What tickles me about the butt covering, and throwing the nws under the bus, is that a dusting, heck, a half a dusting when the temps are below freezing, and the ground way cold, will make the hills impossible.  You don't need 2 inches.  A dusting is plenty. Tony

We have plenty of hills where I live north of NYC, and a dusting doesn't shut down the town. My area of Westchester County goes from near sea level to almost 500' elevation in about a mile, and yet I have worked countless delivery shifts, driving around town on residential streets, after 1-3" of snow fell. You can get up and down roads with minimal treatment if you are careful and think about what you are doing. I think southerners are complaining excessively about a small snowfall that should have had minimal consequences.

 

Should roads have been treated and plows deployed? Sure. Do we need to act like this is the Day after Tomorrow for 2" of snow? Absolutely not. Asking everyone to stay off the roads because it snowed 1-2" is just totally silly. Even in a hilly area. 

[nzucker]

Yep.  Not showing up and losing a day's pay is a tough decision for some folks. If you stay home and nothing develops, getting fired is also a possibility.  Obviously its a very complicated problem. One that most likely will not be solved, primarily because the situation does not arise often enough to force the changes that would be a long term solution.

Almost no one gets fired for missing one day's work. You say you are sick, or your kid is sick, or whatever, and you come back to work the next day. I have had countless jobs from newspaper reporter to teacher to substitute teacher to delivery driver to tennis instructor. I've missed work here and there at all these jobs and never had a problem. 

[max100]

We have plenty of hills where I live north of NYC, and a dusting doesn't shut down the town. My area of Westchester County goes from near sea level to almost 500' elevation in about a mile, and yet I have worked countless delivery shifts, driving around town on residential streets, after 1-3" of snow fell. You can get up and down roads with minimal treatment if you are careful and think about what you are doing. I think southerners are complaining excessively about a small snowfall that should have had minimal consequences.

 

Should roads have been treated and plows deployed? Sure. Do we need to act like this is the Day after Tomorrow for 2" of snow? Absolutely not. Asking everyone to stay off the roads because it snowed 1-2" is just totally silly. Even in a hilly area. 

You might not understand.  It was 60 degrees on Monday, when the snow fell yesterday even though it was like 25 degrees, the streets were somewhat warm, but it fell heavy enough to overtake the warmth, but still melted and refroze underneath.  Thus it is was solid ice not so much snow, NO ONE can drive on ice.

[Winterhawk]

We have plenty of hills where I live north of NYC, and a dusting doesn't shut down the town. My area of Westchester County goes from near sea level to almost 500' elevation in about a mile, and yet I have worked countless delivery shifts, driving around town on residential streets, after 1-3" of snow fell. You can get up and down roads with minimal treatment if you are careful and think about what you are doing. I think southerners are complaining excessively about a small snowfall that should have had minimal consequences.

 

Should roads have been treated and plows deployed? Sure. Do we need to act like this is the Day after Tomorrow for 2" of snow? Absolutely not. Asking everyone to stay off the roads because it snowed 1-2" is just totally silly. Even in a hilly area. 

 

Yes it didn't snow much but the roads turned to ICE.  They weren't snow covered they were skating rinks.  Try driving on that.  I used to live up North and folks living up there couldn't drive on it either..

[infekshus]

Almost no one gets fired for missing one day's work. You say you are sick, or your kid is sick, or whatever, and you come back to work the next day. I have had countless jobs from newspaper reporter to teacher to substitute teacher to delivery driver to tennis instructor. I've missed work here and there at all these jobs and never had a problem. 

 

i'll call your stupid anecdote and raise you one...8 people were fired at my wife's office (16% of the workforce) because of calling out due to the snow in virginia on 01/21/14. 

[WXinCanton]

We have plenty of hills where I live north of NYC, and a dusting doesn't shut down the town. My area of Westchester County goes from near sea level to almost 500' elevation in about a mile, and yet I have worked countless delivery shifts, driving around town on residential streets, after 1-3" of snow fell. You can get up and down roads with minimal treatment if you are careful and think about what you are doing. I think southerners are complaining excessively about a small snowfall that should have had minimal consequences.

 

Should roads have been treated and plows deployed? Sure. Do we need to act like this is the Day after Tomorrow for 2" of snow? Absolutely not. Asking everyone to stay off the roads because it snowed 1-2" is just totally silly. Even in a hilly area. 

 

LOL, I'm from Chicago and you can't drive on this.   This was from this morning,  You can barely walk on it.  If you think you can good luck, but I would place a nice wager that you could not.   And you wouldnt complain if your commute home was 16 hours if you were lucky enough to make it?  We are complaining?   Your post is full of ignorance.

 

[WidreMann]

i'll call your stupid anecdote and raise you one...8 people were fired at my wife's office (16% of the workforce) because of calling out due to the snow in virginia on 01/21/14.

It's unfortunate, though. People shouldn't be fired for that. Given the job market, though, employers don't really have to give a ****.

[CherokeeGA]

Yep.  Not showing up and losing a day's pay is a tough decision for some folks. If you stay home and nothing develops, getting fired is also a possibility.  Obviously its a very complicated problem. One that most likely will not be solved, primarily because the situation does not arise often enough to force the changes that would be a long term solution.

 

That, and it is important to understand the employment climate here in Georgia and especially Atlanta.  It's tough.  There is a reason the civil emergency was declared for the main metro counties through tomorrow; they know full well that if they do not declare that civil emergency, many (if not most) employers will tell their people to show up tomorrow morning, even with thousands of abandoned cars still parked on the roads and ice everywhere.  Many of the professionals we know lose some of their vacation days every year because they can't take them without "repercussions".

[infekshus]

LOL, I'm from Chicago and you can't drive on this.   This was from this morning,  You can barely walk on it.  If you think you can good luck, but I would place a nice wager that you could not.   And you wouldnt complain if your commute home was 16 hours if you were lucky enough to make it?  We are complaining?   Your post is full of ignorance.

 

 

of course you can't drive on that...unless you have the old school homemade snow tires we made in the 1970s with those metal studs inserted into the tread. even then you really just chipped through the ice until you got traction. 

[jburns]

We have plenty of hills where I live north of NYC, and a dusting doesn't shut down the town. My area of Westchester County goes from near sea level to almost 500' elevation in about a mile, and yet I have worked countless delivery shifts, driving around town on residential streets, after 1-3" of snow fell. You can get up and down roads with minimal treatment if you are careful and think about what you are doing. I think southerners are complaining excessively about a small snowfall that should have had minimal consequences.

 

Should roads have been treated and plows deployed? Sure. Do we need to act like this is the Day after Tomorrow for 2" of snow? Absolutely not. Asking everyone to stay off the roads because it snowed 1-2" is just totally silly. Even in a hilly area. 

 

This isn't abut snow. The roads were solid ice.

 

What is it about the word gridlock that you don't understand?  

[KPITSnow]

Here is the conundrum for mets and officials though....these same people that are bashing the response, prep, forecast, etc are the exact same dolts that would crush those organizations if they were overly prepared, and the north shift didn't happen.

Really an almost no win situation.

[jburns]

Here is the conundrum for mets and officials though....these same people that are bashing the response, prep, forecast, etc are the exact same dolts that would crush those organizations if they were overly prepared, and the north shift didn't happen.

Really an almost no win situation.

 

It always is.

[SnowGoose69]

We have plenty of hills where I live north of NYC, and a dusting doesn't shut down the town. My area of Westchester County goes from near sea level to almost 500' elevation in about a mile, and yet I have worked countless delivery shifts, driving around town on residential streets, after 1-3" of snow fell. You can get up and down roads with minimal treatment if you are careful and think about what you are doing. I think southerners are complaining excessively about a small snowfall that should have had minimal consequences.

 

Should roads have been treated and plows deployed? Sure. Do we need to act like this is the Day after Tomorrow for 2" of snow? Absolutely not. Asking everyone to stay off the roads because it snowed 1-2" is just totally silly. Even in a hilly area. 

 

NYC/LI however still do real bad when the snow hits during the day, especially if its a bit worse than anticipated...the 3 best examples of that in the last decade were 12/5/03 when the AM forecast was rain possibly changing to snow by evening with the heavy snow all overnight, we got a strong band of overrunning from 10am-3pm and got 8 inches, some people took 6-8 hours to get home that night...we then of course had February 2013 and the storm a week ago, both a bit worse on startup than expected and as a result many people drove to work instead of taking the train and we had a mess...in general if the storm is expected to arrive during the midday or early afternoon hours I think its always advisable for the media/public official to try and emphasize they prefer people stay home and schools close.

[infekshus]

It's unfortunate, though. People shouldn't be fired for that. Given the job market, though, employers don't really have to give a ****.

 

agree.

 

one girl was hired with the understanding that she lives an hour away (on a good day) on top of a small mountain in WV where road treatment is last priority.  she even stated on her application--in the part that addressed work restrictions--that she would not be able to work when there is inclement winter wx.  she was a top performer for the company (small legal firm with three offices) with 2.5 years service and was fired the next morning. 

 

unfortunately for her (and my wife that has now had to take over the extra cases), it's been a north and west winter in the DC metro area.

 

/OT discussion about idiotic employers w/ little regard for their employees.

[HWY316wx]

One thing from a wx standpoint I will point out... Dale Caldwell from Fox 5 in ATL was grilling the Governor about the local METS forecasting the snow for metro ATL.  Saying that local forecasters were calling for this early on.

 

Well... we were recording a show on Fox 5 Monday night and this was from around 9PM on Fox 5 right before they went on the air.

 

Seems Dale has a memory or a stretching the truth problem.

[EmersonGA]

Walked 10+ miles, hitched an ATV ride for 14 more but I'm finally home. Glad my truck is a POS so no one will steal it.

[SnowGoose69]

LOL, Superintendent of ATL schools just supposedly said "They finally change to a warning at 358am?  What time of night is it to do that when everyone is sleeping?"  This clown has never noticed the NWS generally issues their warnings around 3am and 3pm?

[jburns]

Walked 10+ miles, hitched an ATV ride for 14 more but I'm finally home. Glad my truck is a POS so no one will steal it.

 

They'll just tear the body panels off it and slide them under their wheels for traction.