Atlanta Snowpocalypse 2014

[Lookout]

This has to be one of the worst traffic disasters in US history...if not the worst. The images this morning are just stunning. Some have been stuck for 15 or 16 hours. dot just issued an  a warning to truckers to stay out of the state of georgia. No one has any idea when to expect improvement.

 

btw, there is a lot of high clouds associated with our old southwest upper low that is now spreading north out of the gulf so there won't be full and nice sunny skies which it seems like a lot of the local mets keep saying there will be. 

 

In fact it will be thick enough that there will probably be some virga on radar later today so between the snow cover and the clouds, highs are likely to be a lot lower than forecast imo. At the least, the cloud cover will  certainly effect the amount of sun hitting the roads. So it could be tomorrow until there is some real improvement.

 

edit to add. here is the 300mb rh valid this afternoon at 21z. clouds will extend up to 250mb and It's possible it will be overcast down to 500mb too. It should be noted too, gfs is showing 18z temps in atlanta of 22/23 degrees. No where near the 31 or 32 that is being forecasted. You can forget about any improvement if that's the case

 

[Lookout]

btw, given the fact there are so many people stranded and I'm sure many posters here at least know people who are, I'll leave  this thread pinned until things improve.

[Amos83]

I have a cousin who is 8.5 months prego. She left work at 1pm yesterday in ATL, made it about a mile and half and had to pull off and park at Johnson's Ferry Park (I think that's the name of it) with about 200 other people. They spent the night there and roads are still logged jammed this morning. Insane.

[Shack]

Wow. So sad to see the reports out of Atlanta last night. 

 

Sitting here just NW of Macon with my 2 1/2 inches of snow and having watched the disaster unfold 80 miles north of me has given me a teachable moment for my soon to be 16 year old daughter.

 

It is a lesson that I learned many years ago.

It is simple.

I learned it in the Boy Scouts.

 

Be Prepared.

 

That is, as an individual, be prepared.

 

As an individual, seek out a matter. (look at the d--n radar)

 

Don't "depend" on some entity to tell you what you can rightly, simply, ascertain yourself.

 

Multiple applications in life for this simple Motto.

[lilj4425]

Looks like a scene from the Walking Dead. Seriously though, somebody needs to be held accountable for this. Why in the world were people at work and school yesterday unless absolutely necessary baffles me. 

[Batman]

First of all, thanks to AbsolutZero for coming on here and being very transparent about the activity and decisions at FFC. Very commendable and much appreciated. From what I have been able to see or read, he is about the only person involved in the public service aspect of this storm in ATL that is not in CYA mode. TV and radio mets, local news media, local transportation officials, even the ATL mayor, and the GA Governor are making bigger fools of themselves by trying to cover their backsides in the face of a real trajedy. Sadly though, Atlanta is really being Atlanta. This type of behavior is commonplace here. It just really stands out when a real emergency is taking place. One reason I try to avoid the city of Atlanta as much as possible.

Atlanta officials could learn a good lesson in humility by reading James Spann's blog on Alabamawx.com. James is one of the most respected mets in the south and puts out multiple forecasts and blog updates each day. Unlike most mets in the Atlanta area, James is humble when he gets a forecast right, and even more humble when he gets it wrong. You can tell that by his post this morning. Yesterday was a very bad day in Birmingham too. James takes a huge amount of responsibility for it. The city of Atlanta could use more public servants with that level of integrity and humility.

[SeVa]

Pretty insane images coming out of Atlanta. Kind of hard to believe 2" could paralyze the city. Was there sleet/freezing rain making things slick?

[max100]

The school systems are the major blame for all of this.  This was already an unfolding event, and many communities have closed schools before for much lesser events, when its just a "might" happen event.

[max100]

Pretty insane images coming out of Atlanta. Kind of hard to believe 2" could paralyze the city. Was there sleet/freezing rain making things slick?

No sleet or rain, just compacted to a solid sheet of ice, no one can drive on ice, don't act like you live in the North.

[donsutherland1]

...What he fails to mention is they kept showing graphic after graphic showing 0.10 (yes tenth of an inch folks) of snow falling in  atlanta and even less to the north. Every station kept showing their lame ass "in house" models showing virtually nothing falling in atlanta and yet he acts surprised people thought not much would fall in atlanta or to the north of atlanta.

 

This opinion may not be popular, but after having watched some of the scenes and read some of the first-hand accounts here and on social media about the terrible situation that confronted people in Atlanta, I'm not going to ignore this report. In fact, I very much dislike writing these kinds of messages.

 

My focus is strictly on the station and personnel who used the 0.1" graphic. It does not concern the many private and public sector meteorologists who did not use the graphic cited in the message to which I'm responding. Indeed, a number of the meteorologists here at AmWx did a vastly superior job in discussing things leading up to the storm.

 

My points concerning the 0.1" forecast(s):

 

1. There was no rational, repeat no rational, basis for that  0.1" graphic. None. The computer guidance 60 hours ahead of the event was showing the potential for several inches of snow in and around Atlanta. Moreover, agreement and run-to-run continuity on the models was good.

 

2. The Skew-T soundings were consistently showing a snow event for the greater Atlanta area (NAM and GFS soundings).

 

3. The snowfall was not a "rare" event for Atlanta (headlines to that effect are incorrect). Over the past 30 years, such events have occurred on average of once every 2.3 years. Even if those using the graphic might not have been aware of this reality, it truly can snow in Atlanta and snow can accumulate there.

 

4. When there are uncommon events, it also can be helpful to dig into past events for additional insight into possibilities. The 500 mb pattern was similar to a composite from the 2/6-7/1980 and 3/1-2/1980 events, which brought 1.4" and 2.7" respectively to Atlanta. Some time spent understanding the past can help one in dealing with present challenges from a risk assessment perspective.

 

The work day is sufficiently long to accommodate a thorough review of the models, ensembles, and to look into past relevant events. The combination of reasonable time management and reasonable workplace productivity would allow for all of this. In turn, this focused effort would translate into better forecasts on account of better information and better insight into climatological risks. In this case, it certainly would have avoided the debacle of the use of a 0.1" snowfall graphic, as the models and climatology all indicated that there was no rational basis for using such a graphic.

 

Use of this graphic suggests:

 

1. Unfamiliarity with the models (globals and high-resolution ones) and their performance -- existence, understanding/reading them, or both.

 

2. Possible inability to read/understand Skew-T soundings.

 

3. Substantial bias concerning Atlanta's snowfall climatology (basically an "it can't snow here" mentality).

 

4. Possible over-reliance on "in-house" models that imply a great deal of precision but perform well below the globals or commonly-used high-resolution models (NAM, RGEM, etc.).

 

IMO, the person or people who repeatedly showed the graphic should be sent to a professional continuing education course dealing with snowfall forecasting to develop the requisite skills/knowledge. AMS and Met schools almost certainly offer a wide variety of such courses. He/They should also be requiered to study the local area's climatology (know the big storms, know the frequency of events, etc.).. Passively living in an area, even for a long time, simply does not guarantee understanding of an area's climatology.

 

In addition, it might be wise for the station to have an experienced meteorologist (or retired meteorologist) who has extensive experience with snowfall forecasting on retainer during the winter to lead in the development of snowfall forecasts when a snowstorm threatens. The knowledge and ability of the person/people who used the 0.1" graphic unambiguously fell short of what was needed and the station's viewers were not well-served. The station should also reduce reliance on inferior in-house models that produce such graphics. Their precision is a mirage when one is dealing with a real performance gap relative to the global and widely-used high-resolution models (all of which handled this storm quite well). The in-house models can complement the global and high-resolution models. They are not a substitute for them. When disagreement exists, one should rely on the latter set of guidance.

 

Had the storm behaved dramatically differently from what the guidance suggested or had the guidance shown poor agreement and little run-to-run continuity, that would be an entirely different matter. In this case, the storm was both well-modeled and well-behaved in the Atlanta area. It also fell into the parameters of two events that occurred during similar upper air patterns.

 

On the larger issues beyond the forecast, I do believe Atlanta needs to develop a comprehensive snow management plan. If such a plan exists, it failed so badly that it is all but unworkable. Aspects would include identifying known "trouble" spots, developing a protocol involving pre-treatment of surfaces giving priority to the trouble spots and critical areas, salting/sanding, and plowing. The plan would also entail public service recommendations that people who work in areas most prone to difficulty take the day off, a communications strategy to assure that the maximum number of people are reached in a timely basis (easier today with smartphones, tablets, the Internet, etc., than in the past). The plan's performance should be examined on a regular basis with needed adjustments being made.

 

In the longer-run, the gap between the area's rapid population growth (a good thing economically and socially) and infrastructure needs to be addressed through meaningful infrastructure investment. Whether that investment is funded by reallocating expenditures or increasing taxes or some combination is a policy choice. The infrastructure gap needs to be addressed.

 

In the end, my empathy goes out to the people in the Atlanta area who suffered greatly. The great tragedy of this is that this was, in part, an avoidable crisis. Forecasting aspects e.g., the forecast of 0.1" that was never in the proverbial ballpark, and urgent need for a comprehensive snow management plan should be addressed. Failure to do so will lead to a much higher risk of a repeat situation than would otherwise be the case.

[max100]

Excellent write up donsutherland1..

[audioguy3107]

The city of Atlanta could use more public servants with that level of integrity and humility.

That's been a huge problem here for a long time....It's one of the reasons I would never live in the city limits and I love it here.

[a5ehren]

 

 

In the longer-run, the gap between the area's rapid population growth (a good thing economically and socially) and infrastructure needs to be addressed through meaningful infrastructure investment. Whether that investment is funded by reallocating expenditures or increasing taxes or some combination is a policy choice. The infrastructure gap needs to be addressed.

We had a vote to raise sales taxes to pay for infrastructure a couple years ago and it was defeated something like 30-70. There's no political will to fix the infrastructure here and the people don't want to pay for it, so it'll just keep getting worse until we get to LA-level problems.

[Dunkman]

I really appreciate AbsolutZero coming by to give his thoughts, and I largely agree with his perspective.  Everyone posting here reads all the text products, looks at the models, satellite loops and everything else we can get our hands on.  Additionally we have been treated to having meteorologists explain forecasting to us.  We even have some insight as to how these forecasts are made and the meanings of different language the NWS uses that may not be common knowledge.  

 

The real issue I see is communication.  I would say that most people, except when there's a major event expected, don't even watch a TV meteorologist anymore.  There are countless weather apps in both the google play and itunes stores that have over 10 million downloads.  Many people I know just click on weatherbug or accuweather (or whatever one they have) and see a picture and a few words about the forecast and assume that's what they will get for the day.  The nuances of a complicated forecast are not going to be conveyed in 2 computer generated sentences in one of those apps.  

 

At any rate, in a situation this bad there is plenty of blame for everyone.  If the forecast had more lead time, if the roads were treated, if schools and businesses let out earlier, if individuals decided to wait instead of all rushing out at the first sign of snow, etc.  Hopefully some improvements will be made in the aftermath.

[The Dude]

First of all, thanks to AbsolutZero for coming on here and being very transparent about the activity and decisions at FFC. Very commendable and much appreciated. From what I have been able to see or read, he is about the only person involved in the public service aspect of this storm in ATL that is not in CYA mode. TV and radio mets, local news media, local transportation officials, even the ATL mayor, and the GA Governor are making bigger fools of themselves by trying to cover their backsides in the face of a real trajedy. Sadly though, Atlanta is really being Atlanta. This type of behavior is commonplace here. It just really stands out when a real emergency is taking place. One reason I try to avoid the city of Atlanta as much as possible.

Atlanta officials could learn a good lesson in humility by reading James Spann's blog on Alabamawx.com. James is one of the most respected mets in the south and puts out multiple forecasts and blog updates each day. Unlike most mets in the Atlanta area, James is humble when he gets a forecast right, and even more humble when he gets it wrong. You can tell that by his post this morning. Yesterday was a very bad day in Birmingham too. James takes a huge amount of responsibility for it. The city of Atlanta could use more public servants with that level of integrity and humility.

 

Thanks for pointing me to Spann's blog post.  It is a great read and truly reflects why he is so respected.  Truthfully, I feel he is being too hard on himself, but his humble attitude and willingness to admit he was wrong should serve as a model to all mets everywhere.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for pointing me to Spann's blog post.  It is a great read and truly reflects why he is so respected.  Truthfully, I feel he is being too hard on himself, but his humble attitude and willingness to admit he was wrong should serve as a model to all mets everywhere.

I just read it and fully agree with your sentiments. Moreover, in the case of Birmingham unlike Atlanta, the models had the heavier snow away from the city, so model performance wasn't great. His blog entry demonstrates that he is a real asset and class act.

[CherokeeGA]

donsutherland1 has it so right about the media here.

 

My husband got home a little before 6am this morning, having a near 16 hour drive in total.  He somehow made it here from downtown without any fender benders (I do trust his inclement weather driving but I figured somebody else would slide into him at some point!).  Thanks to fine people here we knew this was bigger than advertised and although he wasn't in a position to not go at all, we had plenty of water and such in his vehicle before he set out yesterday.  So the only cost to him (and me to a lesser extent) was fatigue and worry.

 

He passed a school bus full of children at 4am this morning.  A public transport bus had hit the school bus (not hard, I think it slid there),  The kids had almost certainly been there since yesterday afternoon (no food, water or bathrooms), and for all I know, the poor kids are still on that bus right now.  I surely hope not.  He was in Roswell on highway 9 at the time, so I guess it was a Fulton County bus.  Pretty sure Fulton went under warning at the 3:38am warning yesterday.  The fallout from this event is going to be significant for superintendents and school boards, I suspect.

[BullCityWx]

Did they not even bother to brine the roads?

[CherokeeGA]

Did they not even bother to brine the roads?

 

They claim they began sanding starting Monday evening, but I haven't heard specifics on where that work occurred.  They also claimed they sent some of the equipment south based on the forecasts.  Keep in mind that Atlanta owns 40 snow plows and 30 sand trucks, only.  (And this is more than they used to have, before the 2011 debacle they only owned 8 plows and 4 sand trucks).

 

Individual counties might have some additional vehicles. I know we have a few up here in Cherokee County, but overall there are not nearly enough to fully cover the roads here in any adequate way.  Most (beancounters) seem to feel these events do not occur frequently enough to justify the purchase and maintenance of equipment.

 

ETA:  This is an interesting write-up by a participant.

[DixieBlizzard]

Thanks for your time Don and Steve. Don should be on retainer to the city as a consultant. Every step he mentioned would have been prudent and is well overdue.

 

Lookout mentioned that this may be one of the worst traffic situations in the nation's history and the only thing I can think that would come close was the Bay area earthquakes when freeways collapsed onto one another but aside from that, this could be the absolute worst due to weather.

[magpiemaniac]

I watched Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed's press conference this morning. Basically, he was defensive and was reluctant to take ownership of the situation. He keeps repeating that interagency communication has been better now than during the 2011 Snowmageddon.

[jburns]

They claim they began sanding starting Monday evening, but I haven't heard specifics on where that work occurred.  They also claimed they sent some of the equipment south based on the forecasts.  Keep in mind that Atlanta owns 40 snow plows and 30 sand trucks, only.  (And this is more than they used to have, before the 2011 debacle they only owned 8 plows and 4 sand trucks).

 

Individual counties might have some additional vehicles. I know we have a few up here in Cherokee County, but overall there are not nearly enough to fully cover the roads here in any adequate way.  Most (beancounters) seem to feel these events do not occur frequently enough to justify the purchase and maintenance of equipment.

 

ETA:  This is an interesting write-up by a participant.

 

I'd expect they will be getting some new ones.  Funny thing is, it wouldn't really help in this situation.  Once a large number of vehicles  become stuck blocking the roads, it doesn't matter how many plows you have.

[jburns]

Good point, That was one of our other big topics we discussed at the IWT, impact vs strict meteorological criteria for watch/warning/advisory decisions. Point well taken that since the temps were going to be in the 20s for the duration of the event, 1" of snow would cause a greater impact than 3-6" of wet snow at 32-35F (March 1, 2009). My concern with impact criteria is when do you draw the line?  Some guidance and hard information is needed on these impact thresholds, otherwise the subjectiveness opens the door to forecasters issuing warnings for every minor event to feel "covered", sort of like we do with the Significant Wx Advisory to cover weaker convection.

 

Of course we know the mission and this issue of impacts vs thresholds has been discussed internally for years. My concern is how do you define an impact.

 

The mission statement tells you where to draw the line, "for the protection of life and property".  The history of previous similar events should tell you when you need to draw it.  Look at Atlanta this morning.  I doubt anyone cares if the snow totals missed warning criteria by .5"?

[donsutherland1]

I watched Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed's press conference this morning. Basically, he was defensive and was reluctant to take ownership of the situation. He keeps repeating that interagency communication has been better now than during the 2011 Snowmageddon.

Interagency communication might well be better. But such communication is a means to an end. If the outcomes were not materially better, much more work remains to be done. Snowfall from January 9-10, 2011 was 4.4" (3.7" on the 9th). The final figure for yesterday's snowfall was 2.6". If improvements had translated materially to preparedness and storm response, a comparable (actually somewhat lesser storm) should not have had a comparable impact on people. That it did suggests more improvements are needed (and almost certainly improvements that go beyond interagency communication).

[DixieBlizzard]

Interagency communication might well be better. But such communication is a means to an end. If the outcomes were not materially better, much more work remains to be done. Snowfall from January 9-10, 2011 was 4.4" (3.7" on the 9th). The final figure for yesterday's snowfall was 2.6". If improvements had translated materially to preparedness and storm response, a comparable (actually somewhat lesser storm) should not have had a comparable impact on people. That it did suggests more improvements are needed (and almost certainly improvements that go beyond interagency communication).

 

The impact may have been worse because Jan 9th, 2011 was a Sunday and this obviously started on a Tuesday. Again, you are correct, if improvements were made they certainly were not obvious based on the results regardless the day of the week.

[blueheronNC]

Watching 11Alive Atlanta streaming online and the CYA is just despicable.  Karlene Barron of the GDOT is saying they did everything they could to treat the roads.  She said, "well, when the winter storm watch went up, we put trucks in place, ready to go.  But by the time the weather hit, roads were too crowded to treat." 

 

Um, why didn't you just treat the roads the preceding afternoon when the watch went up?  By the time there's a warning, it's too late. 

[WxKnurd]

Watching 11Alive Atlanta streaming online and the CYA is just despicable. Karlene Barron of the GDOT is saying they did everything they could to treat the roads. She said, "well, when the winter storm watch went up, we put trucks in place, ready to go. But by the time the weather hit, roads were too crowded to treat."

Um, why didn't you just treat the roads the preceding afternoon when the watch went up? By the time there's a warning, it's too late.

Makes no sense at all and no way that is the real reason unless she is just plain ol' stupid and incompetent. Everywhere I have ever traveled, including other areas of the south, will treat roads typically 8+ hours prior to a forecasted even if just for an advisory as well as while the event is ongoing unless it is a historic, blockbuster storm that they can't work effectively while it's taking place. To wait til the onset, unless in a surprise situation, is glaring that someone shouldn't be in the position they are in or someone in the chain of command dropped the ball. That response almost seems to me that those in charge didn't take nws forecasts and briefings seriously until things started to unfold.

[NEGa]

It is absolutely amazing..not only from the actual visual of this but watching the tv mets and all the blame that is being thrown around. Chris whatshisname on channel 11 pretty much called the governor and mayor liars! LOL.. because the governor said it came unexpectedly . Chris kept saying the nws  issued warnings for "atlanta" at 3:30am and i guess that was supposed to be enough warning and his rational was that they kept saying if it moved further north more would fall.

 

What he fails to mention is they kept showing graphic after graphic showing 0.10 (yes tenth of an inch folks) of snow falling in  atlanta and even less to the north. Every station kept showing their lame ass "in house" models showing virtually nothing falling in atlanta and yet he acts surprised people thought not much would fall in atlanta or to the north of atlanta.

 

At any rate, it's just surreal seeing mets on tv looking like they just came from a funeral, appoligizing for their forecast like the guy on channel 5, government officials blaming the mets/nws, and a met calling the government a liar 2 minutes after he finishes  a press conference LOL. Absolutely incredible.

LOL i will admit i may have slept in (was up and going 20 hours before and during the storm  lol)  the gov, mayor looked shell shocked.  there are still thousands of students stuck at school. THOUSANDS wow

 

we all knew something was on the way just not the details.  common sense - temps in the 20s and .50" snow - bad roads.  everything is closed up here today, govt, business, courts.  you cant hear anyone driving anywhere. 

 

and the tv mets were so "smug" about it that they are feeling well i bet we can imagine lol.  its the blame game again.  going to finish reading the thread but i just had to comment when i found out atl still in that bad situation.

 

side note - neighbor saw two foxes last night (i have seen them maybe twice). we saw the tracks (would not have known they were fox tracks) and able to follow them to a bush/hole in my back yard.  how cool is that lol.  foxes living in my yard (now i know what my dog is barking at i bet).

 

22 and everything covered in snow. no dripping sounds

 

PS:  have heard from a couple of friends and my sisters friends from atl.  the minimum commute for all was 5 hours.  most were like MariettaWx here - stuck for 7, 8, 9 hours and more.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, last night I ran some numbers on Atlanta's snowfall. Basically, a 2" or greater snowfall occurred once every 2.3 years over the past 30 years and an extreme 6" or greater snowfall occurred once every 30.0 years.

 

This morning, I went back to 1930. Here are the numbers (1930-2013):

 

2" or More: Once every 3.0 years (most recent: 1/28/2014: 2.6")

3" or More: Once every 4.9 years (most recent: 1/9-10/2011: 4.4")

4" or More: Once every 7.0 years (most recent: 1/9-10/2011: 4.4")

6" or More: Once every 21.0 Years (most recent: 3/24/1983: 7.9")

 

Atlanta's 6" or greater snowfalls were:

 

1/29-30/1936: 8.0"

1/23/1940: 8.3"

1/12-14/1982: 7.0"

3/24/1983: 7.9"

 

IMO, the goal of a comprehensive snow management plan should be to enable the city to deal with, at a minimum, a once-in-five-year type of snowfall and, if resources allow, a once-in-a-decade kind of snowfall.

[toxictwister00]

Watching 11Alive Atlanta streaming online and the CYA is just despicable.  Karlene Barron of the GDOT is saying they did everything they could to treat the roads.  She said, "well, when the winter storm watch went up, we put trucks in place, ready to go.  But by the time the weather hit, roads were too crowded to treat." 

 

Um, why didn't you just treat the roads the preceding afternoon when the watch went up?  By the time there's a warning, it's too late. 

Pathetic, that's what I don't understand. That makes no logical sense. Also that Winter Storm Warning didn't come too late for them to treat roads, the warning went out before 4am, the snow started falling for most of us between 10-noon. That gave them at least a 6 hr. window to re-treat roads across the area. You're telling me 6 hours wasn't enough time to treat roads before the snow fell and early releases at schools/businesses started?