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Atlanta Snowpocalypse 2014


DeltaPilot

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Thank you for starting this thread Delta. I'm here if anyone has questions about the NWS side of things. I worked the mid last night doing grids and am here again tonight. My only comment at this point is our forecast for the ATL metro issued at 455am Monday said "Tuesday...Chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Colder. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch."  I contend that even advisory level snow (~1")would have caused the same impact based on how cold the temps were through the event.  None of our graphics ever said "dusting", perhaps 0.5-1.0" is considered a dusting.

 

Obviously there is a lot of work to do. Ironically, we hosted a very well attended (over 150) and seemingly successful Integrated Working Team meeting on winter weather back in December which was attended by GDOT, GEMA, several county EMs and *all* the TV mets. Good presentations, but how society reacts to forecasts, warnings and actual snow/ice is complex with no hard science or facts to support actions. All of us here know the Atlanta Snow Jam history. Its happened before several times and it will happen again. We are more vulnerable than ever now that we've added another million or two to the metro population since 1982. The impact will only grow with time as population continues to grow.

 

Our hearts go out to all those stranded.

Steve

 

No advisory of any kind was issued for Atlanta proper?

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I'd be curious about your summit Steve, did any of the folks talk about the numerous hilly roads we have here and the large amount of elevated roads; bridges; flyovers and such?  This is such a hilly place and there really are a lot of trees still left covering a lot of side roads which contributes to quicker accumulations; to me it seems some of that should be factored into potential road issues.  I think the North side surprise was quite late and even professional mets on these boards were "discussing" the validity of various short term models. 

 

Also do you believe some of the recent "busts" contribute to perhaps a bit more conservative stance by authorities?

 

Appreciate y'alls work; it's a thankless job and even worse in situations like this.

 

Charlie

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Thank you for starting this thread Delta. I'm here if anyone has questions about the NWS side of things. I worked the mid last night doing grids and am here again tonight. My only comment at this point is our forecast for the ATL metro issued at 455am Monday said "Tuesday...Chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Colder. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch."  I contend that even advisory level snow (~1")would have caused the same impact based on how cold the temps were through the event.  None of our graphics ever said "dusting", perhaps 0.5-1.0" is considered a dusting.

 

Obviously there is a lot of work to do. Ironically, we hosted a very well attended (over 150) and seemingly successful Integrated Working Team meeting on winter weather back in December which was attended by GDOT, GEMA, several county EMs and *all* the TV mets. Good presentations, but how society reacts to forecasts, warnings and actual snow/ice is complex with no hard science or facts to support actions. All of us here know the Atlanta Snow Jam history. Its happened before several times and it will happen again. We are more vulnerable than ever now that we've added another million or two to the metro population since 1982. The impact will only grow with time as population continues to grow.

 

Our hearts go out to all those stranded.

Steve

 

Atlanta has added like over 3 million people since 1982....It was barely a 2 million metro back then. Now it's 5.5M and still rapidly growing. Things like this shouldn't happen anymore...

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Thank you for starting this thread Delta. I'm here if anyone has questions about the NWS side of things. I worked the mid last night doing grids and am here again tonight. My only comment at this point is our forecast for the ATL metro issued at 455am Monday said "Tuesday...Chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Colder. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch."  I contend that even advisory level snow (~1")would have caused the same impact based on how cold the temps were through the event.  None of our graphics ever said "dusting", perhaps 0.5-1.0" is considered a dusting.

 

Obviously there is a lot of work to do. Ironically, we hosted a very well attended (over 150) and seemingly successful Integrated Working Team meeting on winter weather back in December which was attended by GDOT, GEMA, several county EMs and *all* the TV mets. Good presentations, but how society reacts to forecasts, warnings and actual snow/ice is complex with no hard science or facts to support actions. All of us here know the Atlanta Snow Jam history. Its happened before several times and it will happen again. We are more vulnerable than ever now that we've added another million or two to the metro population since 1982. The impact will only grow with time as population continues to grow.

 

Our hearts go out to all those stranded.

Steve

Steve, my first experience with it was in the late 50's.  A big sleet came in pretty early on a school day.  All of us remembered that day ever after, and thought twice about going out for a drive before a maybe storm, ever after, lol.  You guys gave a lot of warning.  But if people won't carry a blanket in winter, or water and crackers if a storm might come, or have preplanned routes they know they can travel in bad weather...well...you have to understand the weather can kill, and you can't take it lightly.  If you get 3 hours warning it's plenty of time, if you are self sufficient, and pay attention.  These particular folks will not make this mistake again, many of them anyway, but there is always a new batch to catch in another 20 years.  It's been that way all my life in and around Atl.  Tony

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No advisory of any kind was issued for Atlanta proper?

 

No, the south part of the metro was under a warning, the north part was still in a winter storm watch Monday afternoon. Most of north metro went into an advisory (not Cherokee and Pickens, for instance) Monday evening, then into a warning, with an advisory covering all but the 4 NW-most counties early Tuesday morning 338am.  You can follow the exact progression of advisories and warnings here. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=WSW&format=CI&version=11&glossary=0

 

What most don't see are the briefings we do internally for state and county government partners, including school system operators. Our briefing Tuesday afternoon had almost 200 in attendence. Questions are posed and answered and confidence in the event is communicated. A suprising amount of information is passed on this way, more than what you might think.

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No, the south part of the metro was under a warning, the north part was still in a winter storm watch Monday afternoon. Most of north metro went into an advisory (not Cherokee and Pickens, for instance) Monday evening, then into a warning, with an advisory covering all but the 4 NW-most counties early Tuesday morning 338am.  You can follow the exact progression of advisories and warnings here. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=WSW&format=CI&version=11&glossary=0

 

What most don't see are the briefings we do internally for state and county government partners, including school system operators. Our briefing Tuesday afternoon had almost 200 in attendence. Questions are posed and answered and confidence in the event is communicated. A suprising amount of information is passed on this way, more than what you might think.

 

The Watch was also strongly worded if I remember right that any slight shift would bring big changes, I definitely am surprised at how many people went into work, especially with the expected start time being mid-afternoon at latest.  It adds fuel to the argument people only read the accumulations in these watch statements and don't read into the finer details when its a on the fence type system where a subtle shift is a big one.

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I'd be curious about your summit Steve, did any of the folks talk about the numerous hilly roads we have here and the large amount of elevated roads; bridges; flyovers and such?  This is such a hilly place and there really are a lot of trees still left covering a lot of side roads which contributes to quicker accumulations; to me it seems some of that should be factored into potential road issues.  I think the North side surprise was quite late and even professional mets on these boards were "discussing" the validity of various short term models. 

 

Also do you believe some of the recent "busts" contribute to perhaps a bit more conservative stance by authorities?

 

Appreciate y'alls work; it's a thankless job and even worse in situations like this.

 

Charlie

Not specifically. The discussion was more high level on how soon forecasts and warnings need to be communicated and the importance of having a consistent message. I gave a short presentation on my concerns that the low thresholds we require meteorologists to make decisions (e.g. 1" +/- 1/2" of snow, a trace of freezing rain or drizzle) is beyond the capability of our understanding and ability to measure.  A winter storm warning for "black ice" due to freezing drizzle would probably have zero lead time since no one I know of can forecast that with any skill.

 

Like severe storms and specifically tornadoes, I tend to agree that winter weather false alarms can cause significant long-term problems. For whatever reasons, our office culture over the years has been a little conservative. Lately, we have a mix where some forecasters will be more agressive and quick to issue an advisory. Most offices are like this, with a diversity of forecast philosophies. I think its best to discuss the forecast with your partner and other mets (both NWS and private in chat). I think that will happen more in the future. We do it already with our TAFs with Delta and CWSU mets.

 

Thanks for the kudos, but we're still accountable. This forecast was a lot more challenging than the Jan 2011 storm as far as model and observed trends and we recieved criticism then too.  I only ask that we give it our best effort and not take a "let later shift decide" attitude.

Steve

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I think that the time of day of the 3:38am metro area warning escalation probably added to things (if it had happened yesterday, people would have known - I think a lot of them only heard while they were driving in or already at work this morning).  And that was of course only for the people in the south and metro counties who had a warning.

 

Cherokee didn't get a warning until this afternoon, when we already had 1.5" on the ground and 100+ accidents around the county in just a couple hour timespan.  I guess I am just surprised because there was plenty of evidence being posted here yesterday indicating there was a pretty darn good chance we would get some heavier precipitation here, and yet nobody in an official capacity seems to have anticipated it.  Last I heard we were officially close to 4", which is the highest total I've heard for the state today. :)

 

Even without a warning in place, whatever was said at the 9am NWS briefing this morning was enough to get the superintendent to start the process to close schools here, per an email they sent parents.  Which leads me back to wondering why there wasn't a warning already!

 

If we had had a warning in place last night, we might not have had the county schools open today.  Superintendent did close for the last serious warning a few weeks ago, the cold snap in early January.

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My grandmother's FB status:

 

In all the winter storms I drove through over the years, 4 ft of snow on the Meadowbrook Parkway, hours in bumper to bumper traffic coming home from Queens to Long Beach, I never experienced anything like I did today. Leaving the office at 1:20 pm, I finally made it home at 8:00 pm. It was not only treacherous out there, but NOTHING was moving. I finally had to get off the main road, (Rt 9) and take a scary, 45 min drive up and down hills that were nothing but ice! My office is normally a 15 to 20 minute drive from the house!

 

From somewhere in ATL (i believe) to Alpharetta

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Steve, my first experience with it was in the late 50's.  A big sleet came in pretty early on a school day.  All of us remembered that day ever after, and thought twice about going out for a drive before a maybe storm, ever after, lol.  You guys gave a lot of warning.  But if people won't carry a blanket in winter, or water and crackers if a storm might come, or have preplanned routes they know they can travel in bad weather...well...you have to understand the weather can kill, and you can't take it lightly.  If you get 3 hours warning it's plenty of time, if you are self sufficient, and pay attention.  These particular folks will not make this mistake again, many of them anyway, but there is always a new batch to catch in another 20 years.  It's been that way all my life in and around Atl.  Tony

 

Definitely agree Tony. As a SOO, I've learned that we can actually make warnings more effective by improving our communication skills than by improving the hard science and training of forecasters (not that that isn't important too, i.e. dual-pol TDS, ).  A well done graphic, briefing, facebook post or tweet can reach a larger audience and be more effective than just an all caps text product. In the same way, encouraging preparedness is just as important as making forecasts and warnings accurate.

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The Watch was also strongly worded if I remember right that any slight shift would bring big changes, I definitely am surprised at how many people went into work, especially with the expected start time being mid-afternoon at latest. It adds fuel to the argument people only read the accumulations in these watch statements and don't read into the finer details when its a on the fence type system where a subtle shift is a big one.

 

This is where the media should probably play a complimentary role; instead of getting caught up in their "inhouse" models and self-grandeur they should be teammates to a degree with NWS; communication is key to a lot of things in life. People still may not pay attention but I can guarantee the average Joe doesn't even read the watches/warnings etc and when TV "Joe" says NWS advisory or even warning but our inhouse model shows nothing that's taken as the facts.

 

Realizing we can't teach the unteachable but in this day and age of social media and such there should be much more of an effort to communicate effectively; perhaps it's there and folks just don't pay attention; not sure. I get my information from various sources including here which is a pretty cool means of seeing all the options.

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What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015.

I posted this earlier before I saw this thread. What a day, I fell once and saw someone else fall once, peed in a cup, and the woods off the side of a gridlocked four lane highway. I did some pretty nice people along the way.The overall feel of the social aspects were positive. There were a few aggressive drivers but for the most part everyone recognized we were in it together. On my walk home I probably passed 30 people. The quick trip gas station I stopped at was packed with people, probably 25 or so. I feel lucky to have gotten within reasonable walking distance of my home before I felt continuing on would result in an accident and probably not making it much closer anyways. Sleeping in my car was the other option I quickly decided was not something I was willing to do over the cold walk.

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I think that the time of day of the 3:38am metro area warning escalation probably added to things (if it had happened yesterday, people would have known - I think a lot of them only heard while they were driving in or already at work this morning).  And that was of course only for the people in the south and metro counties who had a warning.

 

Cherokee didn't get a warning until this afternoon, when we already had 1.5" on the ground and 100+ accidents around the county in just a couple hour timespan.  I guess I am just surprised because there was plenty of evidence being posted here yesterday indicating there was a pretty darn good chance we would get some heavier precipitation here, and yet nobody in an official capacity seems to have anticipated it.  Last I heard we were officially close to 4", which is the highest total I've heard for the state today. :)

 

Even without a warning in place, whatever was said at the 9am NWS briefing this morning was enough to get the superintendent to start the process to close schools here, per an email they sent parents.  Which leads me back to wondering why there wasn't a warning already!

 

If we had had a warning in place last night, we might not have had the county schools open today.  Superintendent did close for the last serious warning a few weeks ago, the cold snap in early January.

 

I hear you. Obviously we would have liked to have a warning out sooner. Good reports upstream in Alabama might have given us a couple hours more lead time, but probably not enough to help decision makers. The liquid QPF for cherokee was never forecast by 00Z models to exceed 0.10" liquid which with a 15:1 ratio would have been 1.5" snow. I didn't see any 12Z models the day before even come close to 0.10" liquid that far north. We're a team in the NWS, but I will say we were concerned that WPC didn't push the snow further north on the day shift. The 1am output for us was much better but still too far south and a little too light on the amounts. We are not obliged to use them, but we treat them with at least equal weight as a model.  The briefing at 9am would not have been different than the forecast at the time, so I doubt it had warning level snow amounts in Cherokee county. 1-2" was the forecast at the time there. We need to reach 2" (1-3") for the warning.

 

Steve

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Georgia DOT spokeswoman and some media outlets also trying to push the theme it's not their fault for not having the salt trucks; etc out on the roads; it's the truckers fault for clogging them. Sorrowful to see such finger pointing instead of owning up; a lot of things didn't happen properly and DOT failed miserably.

 

I don't believe I've ever seen this notice posted on the GA traffic website in the South; ever.

 

Trucks Chain Use Recommended

Tractor Trailer trucks are advised to use chains when traveling over icy roadways in Georgia today and overnight. This is especially true in metro Atlanta and points west and southwest. Numerous trucks have lost traction on the freeways and are stranded and causing severe delays. Conditions will likely get worse overnight as temperatures get even colder and the newly fallen snow turns to ice.

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Excellent behind the scenes info Absolut. I'm probably in a boat on my own in this city when I say that at some point the citizens have to take things into their own hands and find out for themselves how bad a weather event could be. Not sure how much more you guys at the NWS could have done. This event was discussed for 150+ pages on this website and I'm sure others like it that the potential existed for over-performing. The spoon feeding people seem to require when it comes to the weather is baffling to me.

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 The briefing at 9am would not have been different than the forecast at the time, so I doubt it had warning level snow amounts in Cherokee county. 1-2" was the forecast at the time there. We need to reach 2" (1-3") for the warning.

 

Steve

 

This brings up something that I think might be improved. The total reliance on amount as the criteria for a winter warning needs to be looked at carefully.  Certainly it works well for something like wind, but there is a vast difference in the effect on the public of an inch of sloppy wet snow at 32 or 33 degrees verses a quick inch at 20º.  There is also a vast difference in effect for a rural community verses a hilly, bridge and ramp filled city of 6 million people.  I realize the scientist in us wants to adhere to strict statistical values, but the mission statement of the NWS contains the phrase, "for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy."  Is that statement better served by a strict adherence to amounts, or would the public be better served  by giving other variables more weight in the decisions made than is the currently the practice?

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This brings up something that I think might be improved. The total reliance on amount as the criteria for a winter warning needs to be looked at carefully.  Certainly it works well for something like wind, but there is a vast difference in the effect on the public of an inch of sloppy wet snow at 32 or 33 degrees verses a quick inch at 20º.  There is also a vast difference in effect for a rural community verses a hilly, bridge and ramp filled city of 6 million people.  I realize the scientist in us wants to adhere to strict statistical values, but the mission statement of the NWS contains the phrase, "for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy."  Is that statement better served by a strict adherence to amounts, or would the public be better served  by giving other variables more weight in the decisions made than is the currently the practice?

 

Good point, That was one of our other big topics we discussed at the IWT, impact vs strict meteorological criteria for watch/warning/advisory decisions. Point well taken that since the temps were going to be in the 20s for the duration of the event, 1" of snow would cause a greater impact than 3-6" of wet snow at 32-35F (March 1, 2009). My concern with impact criteria is when do you draw the line?  Some guidance and hard information is needed on these impact thresholds, otherwise the subjectiveness opens the door to forecasters issuing warnings for every minor event to feel "covered", sort of like we do with the Significant Wx Advisory to cover weaker convection.

 

Of course we know the mission and this issue of impacts vs thresholds has been discussed internally for years. My concern is how do you define an impact.

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overnight tweets on the situation:

 

Jim Loznicka WGCL @jimwxgator 48m

Natl Guard arrives shortly RT @WJXTEricaRakow Cannot believe the mess going on in Atlanta! Kids STILL stuck on school busses from yesterday

 

Jim Loznicka WGCL @jimwxgator 16m

If you can envision an ice rink that is 30 miles wide by 30 miles long, then you can envision the Interstate ice rink that is #ATLGridlock

 

Mike Bettes @mikebettes 17m

On my way to work. City is completely gridlocked. I'm walking 4.5 miles with the dog. Hope to be there by 7am.

 

Stephanie Abrams @StephanieAbrams 8m

Be safe!ATL is a MESS!Southern storm deets/pics on show! MT

 

 

Yikes on the bolded!

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Spouse is still driving (since 2pm yesterday).  He's been on surface streets in Alpharetta for many hours now.  All surfaces are solid ice, but bridges and overpasses are worse for slippage, and cars cross them at an absolute trickle (and in some cases each car is being pushed across by hand).  The newscasters are totally focused on the freeways, because they can show free footage from the cameras mounted along them, but it's still horribly messy off the freeways too. 

 

This misguided weather dude on tv right now wants the wind to pick up to "dry the roads".  That would be a disaster right now.  Husband says cars are sliding while sitting perfectly still, in any case where the road is not completely 100% flat.  Wind pushing high profile vehicles around is the very very last thing anyone needs.

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I think in a dire situation like this it's easy to pass the blame & it's also human nature. My hope would be that the whole Metro Atlanta community comes together & works toward a goal of this never happening again. Working on a outdated infrastructure is the obvious solution but that is something that will take decades. Short term remedies would be a start. The metro area should have some sort of winter weather emergency plan that is followed akin to coastal metro areas for hurricanes & tropical storms. I know they are different situations but, things like contra flow, Shelters, special weather statements, ect,ect. Could and would alleviate some of this problem. I am by no means a expert on this but basically not having any such plan leads to these types of situations. During the ice storm a couple years ago I was astonished at the amount of DOT dedicated salt trucks the city and surrounding areas have. Thoughts & Prayers to those who have been seriously affected by this.....hope it becomes a teaching tool going forward.

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I think in a dire situation like this it's easy to pass the blame & it's also human nature. My hope would be that the whole Metro Atlanta community comes together & works toward a goal of this never happening again. Working on a outdated infrastructure is the obvious solution but that is something that will take decades. Short term remedies would be a start. The metro area should have some sort of winter weather emergency plan that is followed akin to coastal metro areas for hurricanes & tropical storms. I know they are different situations but, things like contra flow, Shelters, special weather statements, ect,ect. Could and would alleviate some of this problem. I am by no means a expert on this but basically not having any such plan leads to these types of situations. During the ice storm a couple years ago I was astonished at the amount of DOT dedicated salt trucks the city and surrounding areas have. Thoughts & Prayers to those who have been seriously affected by this.....hope it becomes a teaching tool going forward.

 

I hear you, but I doubt it will ever really happen.  Atl metro is made up of a bunch of counties and they don't necessarily work well together at the political level.  It's part of why we haven't been able to grow the roads properly as the city has grown, or expand the public transit system correctly.  Nobody can agree on what to do, how to do it or how to pay for it.

 

Individual counties and incorporated cities just kind of do their own things.  It's called Atlanta but it's really more like a giant collection of small towns.

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Individual counties and incorporated cities just kind of do their own things.  It's called Atlanta but it's really more like a giant collection of small towns.

 

sounds like Greensboro/Winston-Salem, Raleigh/Durham, Norfolk/Newport News, etc. And as unfortunate as this situation is, all will be forgotten by Spring, and it won't likely be remembered again until it happens again in 5, 10, or 15 years from now ... my thoughts and prayers go out to all involved ...

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One of the most aggravating things about this is it snows or ices just about every year in the Atlanta area.  Back in 2011 there were several snows in the same season.  Just because there was a two year laps of any significant accumulation, they make this out to be something that is so "rare".  I'm sorry, when you have any type of average snowfall, snow is not rare. 

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I hear you, but I doubt it will ever really happen.  Atl metro is made up of a bunch of counties and they don't necessarily work well together at the political level.  It's part of why we haven't been able to grow the roads properly as the city has grown, or expand the public transit system correctly.  Nobody can agree on what to do, how to do it or how to pay for it.

 

Individual counties and incorporated cities just kind of do their own things.  It's called Atlanta but it's really more like a giant collection of small towns.

 

I am originally from Broward County (Ft Lauderdale) which like Miami-Dade (Miami) is made up of multiple cities. Ft Lauderdale @ app. 170,000 accounts for 10% of the countys population 1,700,000. Miami app 470,000 accounts for less than 20% of Miami-Dades population 2,500,000. The South Florida Metro area which also includes Palm Beach County population 1,300,000. Is comparable to Metro Atlanta. They have a decent (not perfect) Tropical weather plan that encompasses all 3 countys. There are around 100 municipalities that bicker, fight, squabble, & well you get the picture. If the Metro Atlanta area can't come together as one they should create some sort of Weather Advisory & Planning board to oversee the area, free of boundaries. The board could be made up of individuals from the Metro area itself. The board would have to have complete autonomy to devise a plan of action. Look I know money is tight around the whole country & Atlanta is no exception but, if you have been thru this I am certain that another Penny on that Starbucks coffee wouldn't bother you so much. I know I am preaching to the choir in here & yes I understand all about politics but when is this going to end? Will it take something akin to another New Orleans/Katrina (smaller scale) disaster to really raise eyebrows?

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