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Atlanta Snowpocalypse 2014


DeltaPilot

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Columbus was shut down for almost 2 days. I drove home Tuesday night, but most of the roads were slushy then. However, by 7 the next morning, all the roads were a skating rink. It was a nightmare, but I had to get to work... I slide into a curb (thankful it was only that) and did about 5-10 mph the entire trip. We "lucked" out in that our area was forecast to get snow from the get-go, so most schools had off. However! Troup County (where LaGrange is located) still had school. They decided to let kids out after we heard of numerous wrecks in the county... Never understood that. 

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For someone who lives and forecasts in the far northern Plains....one of constant cold....    I agree that those who laugh at southerners during any ice/snow event and how northerners deal with it so much better, actually show they have no knowledge of climatology or how weather is dealt with outside of their own location.

 

It is the resources available to states in the north that get regular snow/ice and how we get used to driving on those conditions, versus in southern states when conditions such as what happened occur once maybe twice a year (outside of mountains).    The whole emergency management/road department (local and state) are just not equipped to deal with large events that occur at the worst possible time.   There is a thing called risk management....how much money one is willing to spend for the times something occurs.  In the north, we spend a lot on road equipment, budget for overtime, etc as we know for sure it will be needed.    For Atlanta and Birmingham it is not a guarantee it will be needed, so tendency is to budget for a low end figure to handle a small event.   When something occurs at the wrong time in the wrong place such as this event, they are overwhelmed and dont have the proper city-county-state plans to deal with it. 

 

This is the time to sympathize with our southern friends, not mock them because we somehow would have handled it better.

 

Dan Grand Forks ND

Well put, Dan!  Right on the money :)  And that's the key thing, the money.  It makes no sense to spend the millions and millions down here for the rare daytime storm, so they don't.  They just spend it to clean up the mess. That said, some planning would alleviate many of the problems, but they don't do that either.  A coordinated plan with the public on how to act during such occurrences would stop this from happening.  I hope they will start to plan to plan now :)  I think if you asked Atlanta residents if they'd like to pay a five cent tax for winter weather preparedness, and institute a commuter toll, they'd think about it now...but come July, in 5 years, when it's 100 and this storm a faded memory...well...there is just no appetite here for spending what it takes up north where it's necessary each year.  Tony

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So the Atlanta Mayor has announced the response for future weather events will be coordinated with The Weather Channel.  I guess he didn't like the response from NWS.

Well they're pretty much just regurgitating the NWS forecast, so at least it's better than the local mets.

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So the Atlanta Mayor has announced the response for future weather events will be coordinated with The Weather Channel.  I guess he didn't like the response from NWS.

 

We "cut the cable" 9 years ago so I have no earthly idea what TWC channel is like now, except to say that I have heard they do a lot of reality-type programming around historical weather events and stuff, instead of constant real-time weather coverage like they did years and years ago.

 

It doesn't matter who they use, in the end, if they are going to "sleep through the alarm".

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So the Atlanta Mayor has announced the response for future weather events will be coordinated with The Weather Channel.  I guess he didn't like the response from NWS.

 

Kasim Reed is capable of doing anything.  He was once my State Representative when I lived in Douglas County.   I didn't like or trust him then or now.  He's also a fool for taking TWC's forecasts instead of the NWS.  I'll admit we didn't have a great NWS in metro Atlanta 15-20 years ago (i.e.- March 20 1998 Lake Lanier killer tornado fiasco; January 2000 ice storms), but it has vastly improved in recent years and is now top notch.  Nobody is perfect when it comes to forecasting winter storms in Georgia, but they are much better than The Weather "name it Cleon or Maximus" Channel or any tv met in Atlanta.

 

Also, Glenn Burns at WSB is a nice guy.....but certainly not who I'd rely on for getting reliable winter weather forecasts in Georgia. I have a better track record.  So does WSB radio meteorologist Kirk Melluish.

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We "cut the cable" 9 years ago so I have no earthly idea what TWC channel is like now, except to say that I have heard they do a lot of reality-type programming around historical weather events and stuff, instead of constant real-time weather coverage like they did years and years ago.

 

It doesn't matter who they use, in the end, if they are going to "sleep through the alarm".

 

Agree 100% percent.  Atlanta and Georgia officials this past week remind me of those idiots you see crawling out from under their destroyed home after the tornado to find the nearest reporter and start screaming "We got no warning",....sometimes even before the tornado sirens overhead stop blaring :axe:

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OK, I watched TWC's and NWS's forecasts almost constantly and here are the FACTS. NWS did forecast 2" on their map the day before up to Atlanta, 1' or less north of the perimeter when there was a WS watch. However, that afternoon the watch was replaced by a WS advisory and the map was changed to "a trace to 1/2" for all of the Metro, more south. Then at 3AM they replaced the adv with a warning, but the map stayed the same until late morning. In the area north of Cobb County the adv was not replaced with a warning until about noon- they got 3-4" up there and a lot had already fallen.

TWC had 1" in their forecast all night, changed to 1-2" by about 9 PM.

None of the above are bad forecasts but nobody had 2-4" which is basically verified.

Given the fact that there was a map on the front page of the NWS web site that only had trace to 1" and the warning was not issued until 3 AM but the map was not changed til after 9AM, I cannot say the NWS was blameless and the governments are the total villains. Add to that the fact the snow began a few hours earlier and was heavier earlier than expected- I was near Downtown when it began and the snow went from a few flakes to heavy snow in less than an hour right at noon- so when the people who work downtown looked outside they all as one panicked and most tried to head north all at the same time. But up north 1-2" had already fallen, and all the folks there were already clogging the roads leaving and/or trying to pick up kids from school. If you wanted to design a disaster yourself you could not have done a better job.

I have lived here 32 years and seen many 1-2" snow events, which is basically what the average forecast was beforehand, both NWS and media. This is by a many many orders of magnitude a worse outcome than any other one- the only parallel in terms of impact was 1982 which was much heavier, but clogged the roads similarly.

Blaming government and expecting them to predict what actually happened while saying FFC did a perfect job is way too simplistic. There societal factors at work here too- this is an excellent article which outline some of them:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/atlanta-snow-storm-102839.html?ml=po_r

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Kasim Reed is capable of doing anything.  He was once my State Representative when I lived in Douglas County.   I didn't like or trust him then or now.  He's also a fool for taking TWC's forecasts instead of the NWS.  I'll admit we didn't have a great NWS in metro Atlanta 15-20 years ago (i.e.- March 20 1998 Lake Lanier killer tornado fiasco; January 2000 ice storms), but it has vastly improved in recent years and is now top notch.  Nobody is perfect when it comes to forecasting winter storms in Georgia, but they are much better than The Weather "name it Cleon or Maximus" Channel or any tv met in Atlanta.

 

Also, Glenn Burns at WSB is a nice guy.....but certainly not who I'd rely on for getting reliable winter weather forecasts in Georgia. I have a better track record.  So does WSB radio meteorologist Kirk Melluish.

 

Perry,

 How did Kirk Melluish do for this storm? How about Ken Cook (who I still think is the best local ATL TV met. overall)? Glenn Burns? Others? How much snow did you get?

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Great post!.....I hear GA is going to need some new elected officials. Ever think about giving up forecasting for a career in politics? ;)

 

Nope.   In my years at NWS Grand Forks we have dealt with city officials in Fargo enough to know how to deal with risk assessment.  The Red River of the North often floods each spring, and Fargo through the years has been prone to have some flooding.  A small part granted in terms of the overall city, but still significant.   After the 97 flood debacle, when local agencies focused on number 60 days out from the flood itself, we went to a probablistic way of giving river flood crest long term predictions (i.e. 30 days, 60 days, 90 day south).   For flooding preparation, you need a lot longer to get sandbags in place and other things.    So in river flooding we introduced the uncertainity curve if you will, like the NHC does with hurricane forecasting.  There is a wider cone as you move out in time due to many factors.   Then the local officials need to think about what they want to protect too, i.e. build sand bags to protect to 42 feet or 44 ft, etc.   This is a risk assessment done at their level after we give them the best forecast at the time.   Do they want to protect to the 5 percent level, 20 percent level.   In most cases we have seen cities protect to that 5 or 10 pct level.    They often start doing so 30 days or more in advance, at least getting the stuff in place.    Now as it gets closer to the flooding, what actually might occur could be way lower than that 5 or 10 pct forecast.   In the past, officials have gotten flack for those events, and we have too.   But over the years people realize that it is better to spend upfront money to protect folks from a possible event, then to wait to the last minute when it is too late.    It is all about public education and perception.    Yes our area here has way higher taxes probably than you guys down there (in terms of property taxes mainly)   but in some cases if the public sees tax money put to good use they are more willing to agree to it.   

 

From my perspective, I really hate the idea of the long term forecast with one number given as it is now via internet, TV or whatever.  Even NWS 7 days forecast.    It gives the public a wrong sense of predictability....that we know for sure it will be xx temp 7 days from now.   When us forecasters know that it will change and could change a lot, that same lack of confidence is not then portrayed to the public, who then think we are bufoons when forecast changes.   People nowadays hate uncertainity and are so used to exact numbers thrown at them, and completely forget that things change.     I see that even among many weather enthusiasts who have it in their head they will get the 6 inches of snow, then as time gets closer goes off the deep end when it ends up being 2 inches, even though in our mind that was in our forecast "cone" if you will.

 

Enough rambling...   but this probablity forecasting for rain/snow events is a hot hot topic right now on whether it should be applied to general forecasts.    Not talking about 60 pct chc of showers.   But given a forecast with a percentage of chance of xx amount of snow.    Say there is 80 pct chc of 2 inches,  50 pct chc of 4, and 10 pct chc of 6.     That is in reality true forecasting as up until very close to the event, often the skill isnt there in some systems to give out one number. 

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OK, I watched TWC's and NWS's forecasts almost constantly and here are the FACTS. NWS did forecast 2" on their map the day before up to Atlanta, 1' or less north of the perimeter when there was a WS watch. However, that afternoon the watch was replaced by a WS advisory and the map was changed to "a trace to 1/2" for all of the Metro, more south. Then at 3AM they replaced the adv with a warning, but the map stayed the same until late morning. In the area north of Cobb County the adv was not replaced with a warning until about noon- they got 3-4" up there and a lot had already fallen.

TWC had 1" in their forecast all night, changed to 1-2" by about 9 PM.

None of the above are bad forecasts but nobody had 2-4" which is basically verified.

Given the fact that there was a map on the front page of the NWS web site that only had trace to 1" and the warning was not issued until 3 AM but the map was not changed til after 9AM, I cannot say the NWS was blameless and the governments are the total villains. Add to that the fact the snow began a few hours earlier and was heavier earlier than expected- I was near Downtown when it began and the snow went from a few flakes to heavy snow in less than an hour right at noon- so when the people who work downtown looked outside they all as one panicked and most tried to head north all at the same time. But up north 1-2" had already fallen, and all the folks there were already clogging the roads leaving and/or trying to pick up kids from school. If you wanted to design a disaster yourself you could not have done a better job.

I have lived here 32 years and seen many 1-2" snow events, which is basically what the average forecast was beforehand, both NWS and media. This is by a many many orders of magnitude a worse outcome than any other one- the only parallel in terms of impact was 1982 which was much heavier, but clogged the roads similarly.

Blaming government and expecting them to predict what actually happened while saying FFC did a perfect job is way too simplistic. There societal factors at work here too- this is an excellent article which outline some of them:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/atlanta-snow-storm-102839.html?ml=po_r

 

Thank you for posting all this.  This was exactly what bothered me about here in Cherokee - we were never on the maps as getting much, and we had nearly 2" before the warning was issued for our county a little after 1pm.  Things had gone way, way pear shaped before the mets noticed what was happening up here.

 

The Politico article is interesting - and so true - most importantly, those who don't know the area think that Atlanta the city = Atlanta the region.  I am not at all excusing the Atlanta city mayor for failing at his work within his jurisdiction, but he IS correct when he points out that he doesn't have jurisdiction over the vast majority of the Atlanta metro area.  Some other city and county leaderships are kinda walking scot free publicity wise.

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Perry,

 How did Kirk Melluish do for this storm? How about Ken Cook (who I still think is the best local ATL TV met. overall)? Glenn Burns? Others? How much snow did you get?

 

Larry, I'm not sure about Ken Cook at Fox 5; do recall him being concerned Monday night at 11 (as was I) about the evening RAP trends.  I only know what Glenn was forecasting from others posting on my Twitter, Facebook, etc; don't watch much tv news/ weather preferring my own analysis; also enjoy reading the thoughts of trusted friends here such as yourself, RaleighWx, Cheeznado, and several Facebook and/ or Twitter friends who are mets (Michael Phelps, Ryan Maue, Robert Garcia (WFO Tampa), Steven Nelson ("AbsoluteZero"/ WSO FFC), Rich Johnson, and Matt Grantham (WFO BMX).  

 

Kirk Melluish was onboard with a serious winter storm in metro Atlanta due to the cold ground and unusually cold air temps as precip began.  I think his snowfall was a little less than what occurred, but in fairness mine was too aggressive (calling for 3-5" from the I-20 corridor south to LaGrange/ Griffin).

 

As for snowfall amounts, I now live 3-4 miles west of downtown Newnan, and measured a final snowfall depth of 3.1".  2.8" fell just east of Newnan, and a friend in Roanoke, Alabama (30 miles WSW) recieved 3.5".  Per friends in my old stomping ground (Douglasville) 2 to 2.5" fell there.

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Larry, I'm not sure about Ken Cook at Fox 5; do recall him being concerned Monday night at 11 (as was I) about the evening RAP trends.  I only know what Glenn was forecasting from others posting on my Twitter, Facebook, etc; don't watch much tv news/ weather preferring my own analysis; also enjoy reading the thoughts of trusted friends here such as yourself, RaleighWx, Cheeznado, and several Facebook and/ or Twitter friends who are mets (Michael Phelps, Ryan Maue, Robert Garcia (WFO Tampa), Steven Nelson ("AbsoluteZero"/ WSO FFC), Rich Johnson, and Matt Grantham (WFO BMX).  

 

Kirk Melluish was onboard with a serious winter storm in metro Atlanta due to the cold ground and unusually cold air temps as precip began.  I think his snowfall was a little less than what occurred, but in fairness mine was too aggressive (calling for 3-5" from the I-20 corridor south to LaGrange/ Griffin).

 

As for snowfall amounts, I now live 3-4 miles west of downtown Newnan, and measured a final snowfall depth of 3.1".  2.8" fell just east of Newnan, and a friend in Roanoke, Alabama (30 miles WSW) recieved 3.5".  Per friends in my old stomping ground (Douglasville) 2 to 2.5" fell there.

 

Thanks, Perry.

 

 Out of curiosity, I checked some old KATL records and determined that a 2.5"+ S/IP event, like this one, occurs at KATL on average about once every three years. So, it is notable but not rare. Of course, a large majority likely weren't as cold as it was with this one (at least 2/3 of them I'd think) and most don't start during when school is in session (what, at least 3/4 of them?). So, a 2.5"+ storm may occur during the school day and with temp.'s of 25 or less only about every couple of decades or so? The last one may have been Snowjam 1982. So a lot of the problem was having this rare combo of factors. Of course, it doesn't take 2.5" of snow to produce this kind of mess. I suppose just 1" or maybe even just 1/2" could cause massive problems of their own.

 

A 3.5"+ occurs about once every four years on average.

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Thanks, Perry.

 

 Out of curiosity, I checked some old KATL records and determined that a 2.5"+ S/IP event, like this one, occurs at KATL on average about once every three years. So, it is notable but not rare. Of course, a large majority likely weren't as cold as it was with this one (at least 2/3 of them I'd think) and most don't start during when school is in session (what, at least 3/4 of them?). So, a 2.5"+ storm may occur during the school day and with temp.'s of 25 or less only about every couple of decades or so? The last one may have been Snowjam 1982. So a lot of the problem was having this rare combo of factors. Of course, it doesn't take 2.5" of snow to produce this kind of mess. I suppose just 1" or maybe even just 1/2" could cause massive problems of their own.

 

A 3.5"+ occurs about once every four years on average.

 

Yes, I was thinking about past winter storms I can remember since 1971, and could only remember 4 or 5 since that 1) occurred with air and ground temperatures cold enough to cause serious icing before dark and 2) occurred on a weekday.  A lot of the storms I remember began on a weekend (Feb 1979; March 1993; Jan 2011) or at after dark/ before sunrise (Jan 1987; Jan 1988) during the week when most commuters weren't at work.

 

The two worst Atlanta area ice storms I recall since 1971 also both began on a weekend.....Sunday Jan 7 1973 and the weekend of the AFC/ NFC championship games in 2000 (because the power went out and had to listen to the games on a portable battery radio).

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Yes, I was thinking about past winter storms I can remember since 1971, and could only remember 4 or 5 since that 1) occurred with air and ground temperatures cold enough to cause serious icing before dark and 2) occurred on a weekday.  A lot of the storms I remember began on a weekend (Feb 1979; March 1993; Jan 2011) or at after dark/ before sunrise (Jan 1987; Jan 1988) during the week when most commuters weren't at work.

 

The two worst Atlanta area ice storms I recall since 1971 also both began on a weekend.....Sunday Jan 7 1973 and the weekend of the AFC/ NFC championship games in 2000 (because the power went out and had to listen to the games on a portable battery radio).

So, based on history as well as simple probability analyses (school hours take up no more than about 1/4 of the week; only about 1/3 of snows cold enough at start to immediately cause paralysis; 2.5"+ about 1 per 3 yrs), it could easily be something like 2050 before the next time these factors come together : 1/4 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/36. The last one was snowjam 82, 32 years ago. I bet the one prior to that was in the 60's or earlier though I'd have to research it to confirm . However, to be fair, just an inch or so of snow could also do it in addition to ZR 's when it is, say, 28 or lower. Still, it could easily be another 20-30 years before this kind of winter precip . induced type of traffic disaster could even repeat. So, hopefully there won't be an overreaction, which is human nature.

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Nice timeline of events and summary of the storm from FFC:

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20140128winterstorm

 

They're fighting back against the governor/mayor/others who are blaming them.  This page is a pretty good defense too of the fact that the NWS was on top of this storm from the beginning.

 

Yes and no.  Most people don't pay attention to any weather advisory other than a warning. It's just a sad fact.  3:39 am is too late unless authorities take immediate steps.

 

Indeed, the lack of sanding (or salting) of the corridor and I-75 and I-85 demonstrated the lack of preparation characteristic of ATL governance.  My son is a student of Georgia Tech, which I consider the Emerald City island in a sea of political incompetence.

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LOL, Superintendent of ATL schools just supposedly said "They finally change to a warning at 358am?  What time of night is it to do that when everyone is sleeping?"  This clown has never noticed the NWS generally issues their warnings around 3am and 3pm?

I agree SnowGoose but... it might be something to consider if possible. At least that way people know before going to bed. 

I've lived through this one and SnowJam 82 and nothing has changed. 

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Great points by all. Here's my two cents fwiw: If it fell at that rate but not til noon, the same gridlock would have occured, if it held off until 3 or 4pm the same gridlock would have occured but with more kids on busses at least high school, younger grades might be home.

The poop hit the fan in a little more than half an hour with just .25 inch on the ground.

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The mayor only controls 8% of the metro population....

This pretty obvious fact is really getting no attention in the media at all. I bet all the other mayors are pretty happy to let Atlanta's mayor fall on his sword though.

SNL also poked fun at Atlanta, it seems like everybody's piling on! Actually, everybody is piling on. ;)

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/weekend-update-buford-calloway/n45830

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As much as I don't care for John Stewart, the Mayor of Atlanta and the Governor of Georgia both deserve this. A large part of their job is to deploy the resources at their disposal to prevent things like this from happening. Not only did they fail to do that, but after their epic failure, they proceeded to blame everyone but the Pope for their epic failure. Unfortunately, many Georgians had to deal with the ramifications of the failure of their elected government officials. Then, they have to listen to themselves being made fun of by a slapstick comedian that likes to hear himself talk and make jokes at other peoples expense. All and all a real bad week for Georgia.

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Thanks Larry....good to see you again!! :)

Hey, Perry!  Good to see you posting!

  I agree the Atl mets are not bad people, and taking anyone's forecast to heart for winter weather in Atl, is not wise :)  I just think the whole thing is planning..or the lack there of.  It would be easy enough to look at various scenarios and plan for them, with the public, and the tv, radio, departments of response, etc. etc.  I can't understand why it seems to difficult to do.  The 73 ice storm, and the blizzard are two examples of events that weren't planned for, but could be now.  In 73 people were trapped in their homes without food, and no electricity for a week or more.  In the blizzard people were trapped once again, in dangerous circumstances.  It's like the Gov, and business community forgets that extreme events can happen, then tries to play catch up from moment one.  This time, the trucks weren't out on hills ahead of the rush traffic, and it was too late.  Ga. doesn't have the mild climate all the time, and a little forethought could solve most problems out ahead of the tragedy.  Tony

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