John1122 Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yep, OHX said the models even today have been doing so poorly they are basing forecasts entirely on obs for the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hopefully the models will make more sense after the mid-week storm goes through. (Is anyone else having difficulties posting? I've tried this 3 times but it doesn't appear.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anybody have a Farmer's Almanac handy? I'm thinking that may have a better handle on the February pattern than computer models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HPC basically said the GFS lost its mind today. Amazing that we go from a Miller A to no southern stream energy and northern stream dominated. Personally, and I could very well be wrong, think that the models are no where close to a final solution. Also, the overall pattern still looks like it could produce a storm even after this weekend. The 18z was not warm. I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLYTHE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. ANDBOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOWALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'SA GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVINGTHROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAMENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVEOF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THEFORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVERTHE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TOTRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTILTHEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Was the ice in West TN and far NW Middle TN even expected? I just saw it from Twitter when one of the UT recruits can't go to school tomorrow to fax in his papers for signing day. I got a kick out of this statement from Nashville's discussion: WITH MODEL GUIDANCE OF LITTLE USE...HAVE BASED THE TONIGHT/TOMORROW PERIOD FORECAST HEAVILY OFF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY UPSTREAM. Are the model issues messed up in the short-term, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NOGAP ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FNMOC WXMAP North Atlantic.png NOGAP ens. I'm sorry, I have no idea WTF I'm looking at. Can you give us a description? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 cmc ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm sorry, I have no idea WTF I'm looking at. Can you give us a description? Low is in Cen. Ga.,qpf's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Low is in Cen. Ga.,qpf's For the Sunday storm I assume, ok thanks bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS just went from bad to worse. Even further north with the trough. At this rate it may not make it out of Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It wants to wipe out parts of MS/AL with a massive ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It wants to wipe out parts of MS/AL with a massive ice storm Oops! I got mad and quit looking at it after the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What a funny run to watch. East TN gets some fantasy love out of that one, NC gets buried. Next run will be wildly different you can bet. It's comical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It wants to wipe out parts of MS/AL with a massive ice storm Im hoping the central portions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Im hoping the central portions... you'd get your wish..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 you'd get your wish..lol Good, cause Im in the northern half and want no part of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Good, cause Im in the northern half and want no part of an ice storm. It is northern also to central,but take it with a grain of salt,it'll change many.many times again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ahhh the post-200 circle storm. It manages to really explode in post 200 east of here after laying down big snows in Arkansas and Louisiana, while leaving most of Tennessee in the snow-free circle. This winter is like a very cold version of 2008-09 I believe when it managed to come a good winter event everywhere outside of about a 75 mile radius directly around my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I saw that map, John. I can only hope it changes because I couldn't handle that big skip it took over Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I would not rule out anything at this point. Both the Euro and 6z GFS all show events between the 7-14 time frame. So many pieces of energy in the system. Have a strong belief this is not being even remotely modeled well. Model hugging does not work in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 0z Euro has a bunch of energy from the west coming together to kick up a pretty decent storm that moves across the TN Valley starting around hour 156. Temps look good for a period then warm up, so maybe a snow to rain to flurries situation. The snow maps seem even more off than usual. They somehow manage 2 to 5 inches across the state by hour 168. At least it's showing a storm and at least we are in the ball park. The weekend storm stays well to our south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Valentines day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -NAO to the rescue as we head into the last half of our "best" snow month??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -NAO to the rescue as we head into the last half of our "best" snow month??? CFS and the weeklies turn cold towards the last week and first week of March,sure hope we get a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Tuesday storm is looking interesting on the 12z GFS. Similar to what the Euro showed but better temps. It starts snowing early Tuesday morning with freezing lines below the southern TN border and keeps going through early Wednesday morning when temps start rising a bit. Longish duration light to moderate snow good for a statewide 3 or 4 inches maybe even 5 or 6 in spots before tapering to rain. The heavier precip stays to our south but so do the warmer temps. Could be a fun little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Are we throwing in the towel on the fizzled out weekend event? I still think it's a possibility given how bad the models have preformed lately even in the short term. I'm not trying to wishcast...just can't get those earlier model runs out of my mind. I'm thinking that at some point later today into tomorrow, we may start seeing the models hint at the weekend possibility again. Just a gut feeling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Are we throwing in the towel on the fizzled out weekend event? I still think it's a possibility given how bad the models have preformed lately even in the short term. I'm not trying to wishcast...just can't get those earlier model runs out of my mind. I'm thinking that at some point later today into tomorrow, we may start seeing the models hint at the weekend possibility again. Just a gut feeling... GFS is close to getting the northern stream involved again - its sheering the southern vort out big time. Not sure that's correct. Either way, its showing light snows on Saturday now, so its trended wetter. Which wasn'thard to do cause its been pretty dry. I am interested in next week - but there's a lot of stuff to move through here before we get to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z Euro is a miss on the weekend storm. It forms in Florida and moves up and off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z Euro is a miss on the weekend storm. It forms in Florida and moves up and off the east coast. It has plenty of moisture south of TN and light snow north of Tennessee. I really think it will fill in. The h5 setup looks good, its just not getting the moisture return for some reason. It lookslike a big slug of qpf should be with this system and its just not. FWIW - the GFS ensembles overall are much wetter than either the euro or gfs op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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