February Pattern Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

its a different system.

We have piddled around with it off and on for a couple of days. Definitely not to be ignored while the models are seeming to hone in on this time frame. Thanks for sharing that tidbit. Sometimes those little pieces of the puzzle really matter...

[tnweathernut]

I would not be surprised to see the surface respond favorably on the modeling moving forward with the end of the week system. We have broad WSW to ENE winds. Omega looks pretty good as well. Maybe something light to track before the main event this weekend......

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[1234snow]

The GFS just threw us a curve ball. Totally different evolution of our trough. It is weaker and doesn't dig as far south. Precip was cut down drastically but as the low departs the deform band gains strength and should give accumulating snow to all of East TN. I think the GFS is way off this run.

[John1122]

Yep, it said no go with a true Miller A gulf low. 

 

It's too much to ask for models to have any idea what's going on at a given time.

[jaxjagman]

One thing for sure,sure got colder that run.I'm with you 1234,think it's wrong,but it could be sniffing something out though.Who knows.

[Tabbycat]

Jax, you just answered the question I was going to ask. IF it turned out like that, the Tri-Cities/SwVa don't look too bad on the only map I halfway understand (precip) in the SE Forum.

 

Would that dip down into Middle TN get you?

[jaxjagman]

not much of anything,everything is light,only .08

[jaxjagman]

dont look like you got as cold as us

[jaxjagman]

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

 

                                            00Z FEB04   * - APPROXIMATED

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

TUE 00Z 04-FEB  -0.3     2.1    1025      94       2             573     553   

TUE 06Z 04-FEB  -0.6     4.5    1024      92      12    0.00     574     555   

TUE 12Z 04-FEB   0.7     5.7    1025      91      11    0.00     574     555   

TUE 18Z 04-FEB  10.0     7.7    1022      69       7    0.00     573     556   

WED 00Z 05-FEB   5.0    12.0    1016      87      87    0.00     572     560   

WED 06Z 05-FEB   5.2    10.3    1011      93      75    0.00     568     560   

WED 12Z 05-FEB   7.2     6.1    1011      95      96    0.08     563     555   

WED 18Z 05-FEB   5.5    -2.7    1016      81       8    0.02     562     549   

THU 00Z 06-FEB   0.9    -5.8    1021      89       5    0.03     561     544   

THU 06Z 06-FEB  -2.4   -10.0    1025      82       5    0.01     561     541   

THU 12Z 06-FEB  -4.1    -9.4    1028      82      10    0.00     560     538   

THU 18Z 06-FEB   0.9    -6.6    1027      56      46    0.00     560     538   

FRI 00Z 07-FEB  -2.6    -5.7    1028      76      53    0.00     559     537   

FRI 06Z 07-FEB  -3.1    -3.9    1028      77      73    0.00     558     537   

FRI 12Z 07-FEB  -3.8    -3.6    1028      82      81    0.00     557     536   

FRI 18Z 07-FEB   6.3    -2.3    1026      48      79    0.00     559     538   

SAT 00Z 08-FEB  -1.7    -1.6    1027      80      83    0.00     561     540   

SAT 06Z 08-FEB  -1.4    -0.8    1026      83      40    0.00     562     542   

SAT 12Z 08-FEB  -1.7    -0.1    1026      86      45    0.00     561     541   

SAT 18Z 08-FEB  10.1     0.0    1024      47      84    0.00     561     542   

SUN 00Z 09-FEB   1.7     0.1    1024      90      87    0.00     561     542   

SUN 06Z 09-FEB  -1.2    -0.3    1024      94      23    0.00     560     542   

SUN 12Z 09-FEB  -2.4    -0.8    1023      96      29    0.00     558     540   

SUN 18Z 09-FEB  10.1     1.0    1018      57      58    0.00     555     540   

MON 00Z 10-FEB   4.5     0.1    1016      92      97    0.07     549     537   

MON 06Z 10-FEB  -4.3   -10.1    1021      88      56    0.12     543     526   

MON 12Z 10-FEB  -7.0   -14.6    1024      84       9    0.01     545     526   

MON 18Z 10-FEB  -4.1   -14.1    1026      69       5    0.01     547     527   

TUE 00Z 11-FEB  -8.3   -12.8    1029      86       5    0.00     550     527   

TUE 06Z 11-FEB -10.1   -10.5    1032      86      14    0.00     553     529   

TUE 12Z 11-FEB -10.7    -7.3    1033      78      38    0.00     557     531   

TUE 18Z 11-FEB  -0.8    -5.9    1032      44      40    0.00     560     535   

WED 00Z 12-FEB  -3.8    -3.6    1032      60      48    0.00     563     538   

WED 12Z 12-FEB  -3.1    -3.4    1033      75      90    0.01     563     538   

THU 00Z 13-FEB   0.5     1.6    1023      94     100    0.25     560     542   

THU 12Z 13-FEB   1.6     3.1    1013      98      98    0.67     554     544   

FRI 00Z 14-FEB   2.4     0.4    1010      97      46    0.08     551     543   

FRI 12Z 14-FEB  -1.3     1.7    1012      96      37    0.02     554     545   

SAT 00Z 15-FEB   2.0     0.1    1014      92      67    0.01     555     544   

SAT 12Z 15-FEB  -3.3    -3.0    1021      96      39    0.02     550     534   

SUN 00Z 16-FEB  -2.6    -6.8    1024      83      21    0.01     546     526   

SUN 12Z 16-FEB  -7.8    -9.1    1029      86      16    0.01     544     522   

MON 00Z 17-FEB  -2.0    -3.2    1023      66      29    0.00     554     535   

MON 12Z 17-FEB  -2.9    -2.1    1019      66      37    0.00     554     539   

TUE 00Z 18-FEB   1.1    -4.4    1017      89      60    0.04     549     536   

TUE 12Z 18-FEB  -7.3    -6.8    1024      89      64    0.00     552     533   

WED 00Z 19-FEB  -1.9    -5.0    1022      67      78    0.00     556     538   

WED 12Z 19-FEB  -4.0    -3.2    1021      78      68    0.01     557     541   

THU 00Z 20-FEB  -0.6    -2.5    1021      87      61    0.00     559     543

Tri,not perfect but better anyways,not sure what the deal is with the BBC

[Tabbycat]

From the SE Forum: The ensembles agree with the OP run

[jaxjagman]

yup,the Euro joined in also

[Tabbycat]

There must be a new night shift person at MRX. Another lengthy discussion and even with the wild model swings, they do mention possible area-wide snowfall with significant accumulations in the mountains. I'm kind of surprised at them in a 3:10 a.m. discussion which does include the odd* models from tonight. The Nashville guys didn't have an update.

 

*I'm only saying odd because the SE guys, plus the MA guys think it's unusual. Maybe it's something yall are used to seeing though, and can explain it to me in sort of plain English. Or maybe that would be wasted time and it'll all be different again tomorrow. I do understand the movement of the low(s) and what that meant. I may be wrong, but I don't remember our snow last week getting much mention from them until it was right on us, so I'm not giving up.

[jaxjagman]

GFS 6Z came back way west,the models are having a hard time.Still looks like though it's trying to shear it out,out west.12z should be interesting..

[jaxjagman]

 

This is old after looking,i'll leave it up though so we can compare it to the new one when it comes out

[Stovepipe]

I'm usually a glass half full kind of guy, but there is no getting around it.  Last night's runs were ugly ugly.  The only hope is that since the models have been so terrible, a very big storm could be looming and we wouldn't even know about it.  The Euro is real slap to the face because it keeps just enough of transient cold to keep me from planting my greens, grrrr.

[tnweathernut]

well that dissolved rather quickly.  Reminds me of an event several years ago where modeling was indicating a rather large storm about 10-11 days out.  There was pretty good consistency of a major bomb on the east coast for 3-4 days and the weather board was going crazy........... (may have even been back with easternwx).  Then, around day 6 the modeling started rolling in and "poof" it was gone, never to come back.  This has been consistent with that event to this point.  I guess we now wait to see if the storm can make a comeback. It's always a possibility, just wouldn't invest much time from here on in.

[jmundie]

well that dissolved rather quickly.  Reminds me of an event several years ago where modeling was indicating a rather large storm about 10-11 days out.  There was pretty good consistency of a major bomb on the east coast for 3-4 days and the weather board was going crazy........... (may have even been back with easternwx).  Then, around day 6 the modeling started rolling in and "poof" it was gone, never to come back.  This has been consistent with that event to this point.  I guess we now wait to see if the storm can make a comeback. It's always a possibility, just wouldn't invest much time from here on in.

 

 

I think that was the imfamous volcano induced data hole storm. The vort we were tracking was in an area in the pacific near a volcano that prevented data gathering. Once the vort was sampled, the solution changed dramatically.

 

Its not a volcano - but something significant changed with the new ingest at 0z last night. Hopefully it was some sort of bad data ingest. I've never seen even the ensembles change so dramatically. Crazy.

[Stovepipe]

12z GFS tries to throw a couple inches of snow into east TN Sunday night.  Pretty meh run so far.

[Stovepipe]

Of course the GFS has another 200 hour storm bringing snow to MS, AL, and TN.  You can take that one to the bank. 

[jmundie]

I'm starting to wonder why I look at anything outside of day 4.

 

I also seem to remember a few years back where we'd track systems consistently from day 7 in. We can barely get anything positive to occur inside day 7 now.

[metwannabe]

Of course the GFS has another 200 hour storm bringing snow to MS, AL, and TN. You can take that one to the bank.

With a nice -nao as well

[John1122]

I'm starting to wonder why I look at anything outside of day 4.

 

I also seem to remember a few years back where we'd track systems consistently from day 7 in. We can barely get anything positive to occur inside day 7 now.

The thing that used to be consistent was the old NW trend. Storms didn't come and go nearly as much it seems like if you saw them inside 180. 

[Stovepipe]

12z Euro has the 200 hour storm, similar to the GFS.  Temps aren't quite cooperative for TN on this run though, outside of maybe the plateau and mountains.  Bulk of the precip is south of us, NC CAD areas look decent.

[John1122]

I honestly don't trust a single model outside 72 hours right now, and even then it's spotty. 

 

Unless it's showing a big cutter, those have a much higher verification rate.

[Vol4Life]

Stove, did the Euro not show the upcoming weekend storm?

[Stovepipe]

Stove, did the Euro not show the upcoming weekend storm?

 

There is a storm there, it forms in the gulf and heads northeast out to sea off the NC coast.  Very little precip makes it into TN and cold air retreats anyway.  There are some light showers/snow showers that move through east TN in the wake of that but nothing significant at all.

[Cotton7204]

Not looking too good for the weekend storm now. Also not getting any co-op out of the models. Don't really trust em much anymore. lol.

[WinterWonderland]

Who's brave enough to give the possible Feb 9-10 storm its own topic on the forum here?  Here's an interesting article about the storm from AccuWeather that was posted this afternoon.  The placement of the Low looks like the perfect spot for East TN snow.

 

East Coast Weekend Storm May Be Strongest of the Bunch

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist February 04, 2014; 1:05 PM

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As the latest winter storm delivers a swath of snow reaching more than 1,500 miles at midweek, another snowstorm is being monitored for this weekend.

The timing of the storm as it travels from the Rockies and Southwest is Saturday to Sunday over the Central states and Sunday to Monday in the East.

The upcoming storm could be the most intense, and correspondingly the most disruptive, of the recent barrage especially as the storm nears and moves along the Atlantic coast.

The storm would affect major hubs in the East, such as New York City, Philadelphia, Washington and Boston during next Monday's commute.

Many airlines may still be trying to catch up and get back on schedule in the wake of the recent storms.

One scenario suggests the storm may develop into a blizzard as it nears the Atlantic Ocean. As a result, people from Virginia to Maine will need to watch this one carefully.

If the storm develops to its full potential along the mid-Atlantic coast, it may deliver not only snowfall rates of several inches per hour to inland areas of the Northeast, but also strong winds.

RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center
Latest Watches, Warnings, Advisories
Frequent Storms to Raise Flood Risk

These winds would cause extensive blowing and drifting snow over the central Appalachians to New England with local whiteout conditions. A period of strong onshore winds would bring coastal flooding and beach erosion over the upper mid-Atlantic to eastern New England. A return flow from the west would bring cold air back in quickly to the coast.

Such a storm, depending on its track, would try to pull warm air in at the height of the event, causing a change to rain along the mid-Atlantic coast to southeastern New England. However, the storm could become so intense that it later wraps cold air around, perhaps leading to a change back to snow and a flash freeze in these same locations.

Another scenario would be for the storm to behave more like other storms have done recently with a period of moderate to heavy snow streaking across part of the Midwest to part of the Northeast. Winds would be significantly less and probably not a factor. Overall, a more manageable storm would occur.

Either way, it appears another disruptive storm for travel and daily activity concerns will sweep from the Central states to the East Coast.

In both scenarios, rain would fall across the Deep South and some snow would sweep across part of the southern Plains during Saturday night and the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Sunday. A period of snow would also streak eastward across the Midwest cities of St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

However, a stronger storm would imply more thunderstorm activity and a greater risk for severe weather in part of the Southeastern states.

The details on the nature of storm for this weekend will unfold in the coming days.

At least most areas in the path of the snow will have several days to prepare for the storm, instead of the short-order snowfall of late.

The Sunday to Monday weather event will not mark an end to the stormy pattern. Additional storms are on deck through at least the middle of February.

[John1122]

I'd say give it a day or two. MRX did have this so say in their afternoon package. Northern 2/3rd to them is generally from around a tier of counties south of Knox and points northward.

 

 

 

SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...REGARDLESS OF LOCATION WILL BE WEAK INITIALLY. FOR NOW
LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3 OF MRX CWA SUNDAY.
GFS 04/12Z ABOUT DOUBLES THOSE AMOUNTS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A COOL AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 

[Stovepipe]

Anything is possible with the weekend storm.  Giving up on it (or going all in) at this point would be silly in light of the model performance lately.  Hell, the RAP can't even initialize with the correct temps in west Tennessee RIGHT NOW haha.