Stovepipe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 0z Euro's low track is in between the 0z and 6z GFS, sends it right over the apps. That would bring 2 to 3 inches of snow to west and middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 6z ensembles still look pretty good. And 6z still gives us some snow. There's going to be some waffling on this system. But I'm encouraged by last nights trends. CMC and UKie look similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 0z Euro's low track is in between the 0z and 6z GFS, sends it right over the apps. That would bring 2 to 3 inches of snow to west and middle TN. Cool deal, at least we have systems to track this year, which is 100% better than last for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I haven't been posting as much in the last few days, but I have been keeping an eye on things and I will say I am optimistic. Even the Miller B solutions keep half the state in play and the trends have been pretty good for the event around day 6. Overall, from last night's 0z Euro - the ensembles are further south and east so maybe we can trend toward something pretty good for many in the TN Valley. I see the ensembles are a bit further south and east for the 6z GFS too, something to keep in mind as we watch future runs come in. I'd still go with the ensembles and expect changes going forward. Carver's has mentioned an event BEFORE all of this, around hour 100ish. Several 6z GFS individual ensemble members give accumulating snow to parts of the TN Valley and even some in the deep south and/or Carolinas between 96 and 114. Like Weathertree says, at least we are tracking this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro says Miller A yall - boom goes the dynamite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro says Miller A yall - boom goes the dynamite The 12z GGEM (and 0z before it) shows the Miller A track as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Given this potential track, do you think enough cold air would be in place to support snow? Or are the temps marginal at this point? Just looking from my untrained eye, looks like temps may be an issue. Still, very pleased with this progression! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Given this potential track, do you think enough cold air would be in place to support snow? Or are the temps marginal at this point? Just looking from my untrained eye, looks like temps may be an issue. Still, very pleased with this progression! GGEM snow map shows 1 to 4 inches south to north state wide. Euro had 1 to 4 as well with middle TN and mountains doing the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Also from his facebook: I'd like to see the models capture the upper low better in Idaho/Intermountain region better around Thursday and then see where they take it. They open it pretty quickly in western TX or New Mexico. Sometimes they open them prematurely..just a few days ago the chance of a cutoff was nil, on the models, but I looked ahead of the models and thought there could be a chance it ends up happening, and wha-la, the models are following suit. But now I'm not sure further east. The confluent flow in eastern Canada is still there and no model is capturing northerly flow that still pours into Canada all next week, so not sure if the models are handling all that Polar/Arctic energy well either. Bottom line is, there will be more changes on the actual models and ensembles on this track and total evolution I think during the next 3 days and then we'll really have a good idea. Right now, blending GFS and ECMWF looks pretty realistic and about where I was thinking the models would go with it, but the amount of damming is questionable and has a huge implication on NC piedmont during the storm and any transfer from Miller B if that is what occurs. But a much further north and west track with southern MIss. Valley trough will put the Carolinas in total warm sector really, and even a severe threat further south west. Track means everything to upper lows. Too many questions right now, atleast more of those than answers. and Upper lows are interesting this time of year for the Southeast, in some years. I've been thinking this could turn into an upper low that takes apretty far south track and the models are leaning toward my thoughts from a few days ago. Nothing is set in stone yet, there's a lot of things going on. Too early to really know or guess the track. But someone on the northern and western sides of that track will get a big snowstorm from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Paging Stovepipe. Hearing the Euro 12z ensembles are a tick or two southeast of the OP? and that the Euro control is on board for a Miller A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Paging Stovepipe. Hearing the Euro 12z ensembles are a tick or two southeast of the OP? and that the Euro control is on board for a Miller A...yes they are, they look good for middle Tennessee with rain changing to snow for eastern Tennessee. What we would need is a farther south track with the surface low. Northern Florida or southern Georgia would be much better than middle Georgia. Too much waa is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Franklin, in this situation, if the SLP was weaker, that would help us in East TN in limiting the WAA correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How is Nashville looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Franklin, in this situation, if the SLP was weaker, that would help us in East TN in limiting the WAA correct? You either need the low weaker, or with the current euro ensemble track.........the high stronger and close enough to be tapped for a quicker changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How is Nashville looking? I don't have snow maps, but the 500 track would probably put BNA in the money spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 After a quick glance at the 18 Z GFS and the trends of the last few days, I have to think we're headed towards a nice little event for someone and a blizzard for parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Almost looks like it tries to cut off around our 156. At the very least the trough moves from neutral around the Mississippi river to negative between 144 and 156. That's a pretty good spot to have mischief in the upper Midsouth. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Apologies in advance if this is the wrong forum to post this question, but could somebody explain what it means when these LPS "close off"? Also what does it mean when a system takes on a "negative tilt "...or any tilt? Thanks....just trying to learn!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Apologies in advance if this is the wrong forum to post this question, but could somebody explain what it means when these LPS "close off"? Also what does it mean when a system takes on a "negative tilt "...or any tilt? Thanks....just trying to learn!!! http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/ http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=closed%20low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The EPS looks decent,9"+NW TN,1-40 N,3-6"+ the rest except extreme SE valley 1-2",but that will change again and again,the storm is still there and that's what counts right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just got in from work...which is why I don't post much during the day on week days. Here are some quick thoughts.... 1. The models today are potentially showing an significant snowstorm for the southern Apps to Mid-Atlantic. 2. Will it be a true Miller A or send us the dreaded warm-nose? I am leaning flat-out Miller A. If it is a true Miller A, we even have some room to maneuver. 3. The Canadian, Euro, and now GFS are portraying similar scenarios, but as always, the details will matter. 4. Don't worry about precip types or amounts at this point. Look at the pattern. If it is a Miller A and tracks thought central/southern GA and then inside Hatteras, everything else will work itself out. 5. Bowling ball lows are notoriously fickle in terms of being able to predict them. 6. At this point for middle and east TN, probably couldn't ask for better in terms of model trends today. It is not uncommon for big storms to be seen early and get locked-in on the models, though this winter that has been a rarity. 7. Whatever the final outcome in this area, certainly looks like a big storm is a real possibility given the pattern and the models. Should be a great week of tracking another winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Franklin, in this situation, if the SLP was weaker, that would help us in East TN in limiting the WAA correct?yes, but what i would like to see is the low farther south initially, then go negative tilt and run straight up 95. With the low going thru central Georgia with a meager airmass in front of the storm the midlevels warm quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Really, it is possible to have a strong low pressure pretty far south and still get snow in Tennessee. If we are going get snow on this side of the Apps, we really need it to crank. The deeper the pressure, the more likely it is to drive cold air into the upper left quadrant of the storm. Ideally, we would want the storm to deepen as it turns the corner and get a fetch of moisture enhanced by the Atlantic. I think the weaker the low pressure, the less likely we see good bands of snow in TN. If it goes inside Hatteras, a low pressure in the low 990s would create quite the storm. FWIW, for a wave where we get 2-4" of snow sliding across underneath us and then OTS...it needs to be weak. If we are looking for a Nor'easter I personally like to see them spin-up. However, what does this discussion tell us...a southern stream system turning the corner gives us significantly more options for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 FB response to someone from Robert (WxSouth) NE TN is likely to get some accumulating snow out of this no matter what the track. Unless it goes much further north than I think it will. Wrap around moisture alone and being on the northwest side of a strong open wave or weak upper low is a good recipe. In fact, right now I'm thinking all of TN will see *some* snow from this event. That could change though. So far out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Great discussion today guys! Hopefully we can reel this one in. I did not expect the models to fall in line this well at this stage. They are like putty in Robert's hands though. How many times has he said the models don't have a handle on such and such, expect them to start showing x soon. Then low and behold a day or two later, the models start showing it. If 0z hangs tough, my exuberance will start to rise rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You guys in east Tennessee should check out the sref for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You guys in east Tennessee should check out the sref for Friday. Is the the little system between systems or is that Sunday's...seems early for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You guys in east Tennessee should check out the sref for Friday. I have been on it for a day or so.........in b/w Carvers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is the the little system between systems or is that Sunday's...seems early for that one?its a different system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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