tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Poof goes the ridging, has a progressive look. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Stove, @ 120 looks like precip in E TN with freezing line along southern border. Looking at PSU's e-wall. Here's what I see at hour 120: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here is what I am seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thank you, Stove. Looks like the column is not wet enough to support fr rain. I think we may see some on Fri. Bet some moisture slips up the eastern valley. If it is at night, might be a slight mess. More of an inconvenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If you take a look at the gefs, several individuals look promising for at least SOME wintry weather. I wonder if the SEVERE lack of any consistency is a clue to expect the unexpected? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It still has the light snow sweeping across the state at hour 168. Probably a dusting with northern plateau and TRI getting a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If you take a look at the gefs, several individuals look promising for at least SOME wintry weather. I wonder if the SEVERE lack of any consistency is a clue to expect the unexpected? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Robert said the models are struggling big time with the pattern. We can probably expect big swings as they try to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If you take a look at the gefs, several individuals look promising for at least SOME wintry weather. I wonder if the SEVERE lack of any consistency is a clue to expect the unexpected? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Agree. Several models have pointed to this time frame. I think the double barrel look returns. Makes sense with the pattern. 12z almost showed it again. With no blocking, easily could go west. Storms have charged into cold HPs before. Seems unlikely. Bet this reverts back to a hybrid Miller B. I thought the GFS sent too much energy west of the Apps. Still, the 12z run is less of an outlier when compared to earlier runs. The 0z was a new solution and flipped back by 12z. DT discusses this on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was just looking at 500 when the euro was coming in and it looked decent with a west coast ridge starting to pop between 120-144, sending our energy diving southeast. Then at 168 we lost some of that ridging and all we ended up with was a positive long wave trough swinging through. If we had continued to build the ridging out west beyond 144 I think the downstream solution would have been MUCH different. Oh well, lots to sort out. Glad I am not a met. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Every time there is mention of a possible cut off ULL bringing localized snow I start sweating bullets. Those things are nerve racking to track haha. Big winners, big losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS regained its composure and the double barrel low next Sunday has reappeared. Could be a significant storm for the East late next weekend. We shall in future runs see how the TN Valley fits in. Also a little impulse rides up just prior to this which woud signal a light snow event, hr 117. Keep an eye on it. First I have seen this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS regained its composure and the double barrel low next Sunday has reappeared. Could be a significant storm for the East late next weekend. We shall in future runs see how the TN Valley fits in. Also a little impulse rides up just prior to this which woud signal a light snow event, hr 117. Keep an eye on it. First I have seen this feature. I noticed what you were saying about 117 also,the Euro has it also but it's to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS OZ is showing one heck of of a ice/snowstorm on the 0z tonight.More ice central-western parts than eastern,looks nasty Edit:Eastern people are gonna love this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just ran my text for BNA for next weekend,qpf's .16 ICE 1.01 SNOW wow,GFS got cold as crap,next Wed from 12z to the following Wed BNA stays below freeze I can assume that the Huntsville area will be on a similar pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ooops sorry,we warm up fri and sat..lol.Dont care ill take this Edit:Spoke to soon and got excited for no reason at all,its a major ice storm followed by snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can assume that the Huntsville area will be on a similar pattern? you use muscle shoals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That was a huge shift from the last few runs on the GFS. Big time winter storm. No lakes cutter on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 If that run came true, everyone in Tennessee, Kentucky and Northern Mississippi would be super happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Robert said earlier today or yesterday that models weren't picking up on the cutoff that well....lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Robert said earlier today or yesterday that models weren't picking up on the cutoff that well....lmao Yeah i've been reading a few blogs lately that says there will be a big storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 also i think it was in the long range discussion on HPC talk about a Miller "B",The models have beeen showing this on and off for the past few runs but let the idea go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you use muscle shoals? What do you mean do I use Muscle Shoals? Oh, and WDE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What do you mean do I use Muscle Shoals? Oh, and WDE! your airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 your airport? No, I use Huntsville airport, and actually live ten minutes from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thats a awesome run though on the GFS,if its true is another thing.It closes the vort up in in NW ALABAMA,and starts to develop a trowel that sweeps through all the valley.This would be a snow machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 The models actually nailed this snow/winter event a few days ago even if it waffled the snow line around in a 300 mile or so window. Hopefully they are handling this storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Whoah! Let's see how many runs in a row the GFS can keep that. Pretty sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I can't wait for you guys to get up and tell me what the Euro says. From what I read in the SE Forum a cross between an Apps Runner/Miller B or a Hybrid Miller B. I read the thread again and you guys weren't too upset at that look, but they lost their joy from the GFS. GaWx said no snow for anyone in the SE, but the Nashville Forecast Discussion mentions chances for snow next weekend and though not as optimistic, MRX does, too. And both were written after both models were run and it mentions them. So I don't know if it's just losing the bomb in Central-Western NC that made them unhappy, or if we all lost it. I'm hoping Tennessee kept what they lost since the NWS guys aren't dismissing it yet, though temps are an issue to them and precip isn't at this time. I started to copy it here but figured you'd all read it anyway. Wait until you see how much MRX wrote. John, you picked a fine time for your two hour sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Whoah! Let's see how many runs in a row the GFS can keep that. Pretty sexy. That looks like a classic snow system for TN; the current run appears different though, appears now to have a low going right over Nashville - just one run I guess hopefully the noon run is back to the previous set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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