Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's the 12z Euro deterministic/ensemble mean snow totals through hour 240. You can see on the meteograms that the ensembles still see something for storm #3 so that is good. The deterministic numbers reflect storm #1. Bristol - 0.6/1.8 Chattanooga - 0/0.5 Crossville - 0.5/1.6 Jackson - 2.2/1.9 Knoxville - 0.2/0.8 Memphis - 2.2/1.8 Nashville - 0.9/1.9 Paris - 2.6/3.2 Dyersburg - 2.2/3.3 Paducah - 2.5/5.2 Asheville - 0.6/2.8 ...for what it's worth. If nothing else it's good for documenting run to run comparisons and trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just looked at the weeklies from last night and it looks like around Valentines day winter gives us a kiss good bye for the Valley,other than transient low level coolness there nothing to see.The SER is gonna be here for awhile by the looks.Severe weather is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I can see it going either way, but I won't believe warmth and storms OR cold and snow until within 5 to 6 days.....and even then I will remain skeptical, lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Apparently the only storm with any certainty in the next 10 days is the big rainer on Tuesday. The wintry threats are, not surprisingly, up in the air. It's always amazing how well the models can handle GLC from way out, but southern tracking systems are great mysteries for this area. I can see February going way warm too, it's just something that normally happens after such frigid January periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What makes this tough is forecast offices are being overly cautious after this past week. They wrongfully were thrown under the bus. That said, the CPC teleconnector indices are about as bad as one could ask for. The PNA, when positive, has correctly signled cold in the East. It is projected to go severely negative. Now, I am not normally a warmista, but that pattern is not a good one if you like prolonged winter in the East. Robert had some excellent comments on Twitter this AM about potential NEXT weekend. I can see easily see a storm between Feb 7th and 14th...then a big warm-up followed by a last hurrah late month. Now, here is the question...what if the CPC ensembles are wrong? Not out of the realm of possibility. They were correct about the onset of the cold but incorrect on duration last month. Overall, I will go with at least +2.5 temps at KTRI with normal to above snowfall for Feb. It can snow in a warm pattern and Feb is a good climo month for the upper south. Any low tracking to our south should be watched such as last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Let's watch the CPC NAO index the next few days...this AM took a nose down mid-month. Not negative. But sometimes that is a signal for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On that 0z Euro, Storm #1, north western part of TN from Memphis to Nashville to Upper Cumberland get frozen precip. 2 to 3 inches of wxbell snow Storm #2, very wet and non-frozen Storm #3, temps marginal, maybe another 1 to 2 for the same areas as storm #1 Storm #4 (or 3.5?) starting at hour 192 precip moves across the state west to east with freezing lines out ahead of it. Looks like most of the state gets 2-4 inches of actual snow with parts of east TN getting 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0z Euro ensemble means are up! Deterministic/Ensemble Mean snow through 240 Bristol 5.5/1.9 Knoxville 5/1 Nashville 6/3 Memphis 5/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the Euro is on repeat of the snow post 200 for most of us. As these events draw closer, the ole NW trend for each of them won't surprise me. Except for the ones already showing GLC, they're likely to be correct. It will take an extremely weak wave of LP not to cut NNE with the teleconnections forecast, in place. A stalled front in exactly the right place with a weak wave riding up it is about the only hope. A true Miller A is almost impossible during a time with a -pna and a +nao/ao combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Euro's hour 180 storm again looks good for at least some snow statewide, SE TN fairing the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Euro's hour 180 storm again looks good for at least some snow statewide, SE TN fairing the worst. Looks like a Miller B. Stove, I can't see past 24 hr increments on my usual site. Any energy coming out of the south, or is it a purely norther stream system. That is a bombogenesis maximus @ 192 for the megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Day 10 on the Euro is getting a blocky look. Would love to see that pattern retrograde. Could we pull-off the infamous "double block?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS again shows a blocky look around the same time frame as 12z Euro. If the NAO can scoot to neutral, watch out. Quickly or slowly falling NAO has been the signal all winter for storms in the East. That is a new wrinkle being hinted at on both models. Looks east based, but if the ridge in Alaska loads...that is a sort of pseudo- double block. I think it would trump the CPC ensembles, if even for a 2-4 day window. Might be what we need. Right now though, it's cutter city. Feb 9th has a CAD look for the Carolinas. But we need the tnweathernut scenario...one low to set-up the other. With so many systems crossing the country, have to think that happens. I think the pattern has so many much energy in it, the models don't have everything correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Carvers Gap, you're talking about something coming in after the Feb 8-9 period, right? Around the 11th or so? I know you've said for weeks to watch for the period leading up to Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS looks very similar to the Euro for next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 That look on the GFS is just a straight up GLC with the standard cold chasing moisture, which the GFS often over estimates moisture on the backside of those type events. The actual frames that are cold enough for snow feature .01 of precip for several panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That look on the GFS is just a straight up GLC with the standard cold chasing moisture, which the GFS often over estimates moisture on the backside of those type events. The actual frames that are cold enough for snow feature .01 of precip for several panels. I show .11 total cold enough for snow. Doesn't matter you're right, it's probably insignificant. I just thought it was interesting that both models had the same look 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I show .11 total cold enough for snow. Doesn't matter you're right, it's probably insignificant. I just thought it was interesting that both models had the same look 7 days out. Basically, northern energy getting handed off to the coast, classic Miller B. I think right now the models "see" the potential for a significant storm Feb 7-14. Honestly, I just animate the model maps and try to make a logical guess on where a phase might occur. The models and CPC teleconnectors have strongly hinted at this time frame. Right now, face value, looks like a northeast event. But who wants to be in the bullseye right now? I also have read where several have mentioned this time frame looks good. Generally I synthesize what I see on the models and read what others say. So, I am more of a messenger than an originator of ideas. Anyway, cold air moves south during this period with lots of southern stream energy. Can be a good recipe. We really need the NAO to flirt with neutral. That is what I'll be watching. If it continues to move downward mid-month, could be good. Thaws after severe cold are common. And it could just be a cold, rainy period. As for me, I need a one week break. Getting a little cabin fever. MRX is reporting January to be the 6th coldest on record at KTRI. Incredibly impressive. -6.7 for the month of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The time around next Sunday continues to be interesting. On this episode of the 0z GFS, a double barrel system develops what appears to be a hybrid Miller B/A. Energy rounds the base of the trough. One piece shoots up west of the Apps, another turns the corner and explodes with a handoff of energy and a genuine Nor'easter. Should make some nice clown maps. Everyone needs to remember this is just one solution of many that will be modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The time around next Sunday continues to be interesting. On this episode of the 0z GFS, a double barrel system develops what appears to be a hybrid Miller B/A. Energy rounds the base of the trough. One piece shoots up west of the Apps, another turns the corner and explodes with a handoff of energy and a genuine Nor'easter. Should make some nice clown maps. Everyone needs to remember this is just one solution of many that will be modeled. It was an interesting run. Here's the clown for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It was an interesting run. Here's the clown for entertainment. Foothills is commenting on the SE board. Man, those folks are getting excited. I won't be able to sleep now for an hour. Anyway, the basic premise is that a 1040+ high is going to drive SE first, put cold air in place, and produce a significant winter storm. Would be rain for us first, then to snow. I will have to see a few more runs before pushing my chips in. They think the Euro will catch this soon. May not be a TN Valley run, may be. CAD signal for NC is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know very little, but in between those pieces of energy, a week away, seems like a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There was a euro solution a few runs ago that looked like this latest GFS. I feel like this was a step in the right direction. Really close to a good hit for most of the state with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GFS....300-500 mile shift NW in one run. NE corridor to Chicago. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What is missing on the 12z...the hint of a -NAO. Slightest hint of one very late...Lesson here, no +PNA nor a -NAO equals no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z Euro looks like an overrunning event in the Valley Feb 7th. Can't see increments outside of 24 hrs. What are you all seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z Euro looks like an overrunning event in the Valley Feb 7th. Can't see increments outside of 24 hrs. What are you all seeing? I don't see anything on the 7th. Precip slides south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Stove, @ 120 looks like precip in E TN with freezing line along southern border. Looking at PSU's e-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking at hour 144 12z euro there is a nice ridge popping out west (even if briefly), sending a shortwave diving southeast through the central Rockies. If the ridging can build a little more it wouldn't surprise me to see a cutoff develop SOMEWHERE in the southeast in future panels. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like freezing rain on the 7th to rain by the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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