tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Cold front laying across the gulf coast at hour 165 (12z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 moisture beginning to respond, light precip breaking out in far south Texas at 177 in response to the shortwave in the southern flow in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This has the looks of something major beyond truncation. It certainly has a CAD crushing look with a 1043 high in Ohio at truncation, branching back to a high of 1034 in southern Canada at hour 186. Shortwave about to come east. I don't trust anything after truncation, except the depiction of a CAD MONSTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Different looks from the gfs but the 8-13 period could release a monster for the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Different looks from the gfs but the 8-13 period could release a monster for the southeast Probably silly to look at specifics this far out, but the "look" is still there. GFS ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tnweathernut...thanks for the play by play! Do you think it could be major for us in East TN? What do the temp profiles look like? Cold enough to support snow? Thanks again for keeping us all updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 How in the world is a weak surface low cutting nw - both the midweek storm and the next weekend storm. I just can't handle anymore lack of snow. Nashville is cursed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So much stuff flying around past truncation I can barely make sense of it all. Looks like a fun period to track, glad to see it looking to be very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 How in the world is a weak surface low cutting nw - both the midweek storm and the next weekend storm. I just can't handle anymore lack of snow. Nashville is cursed. I'm really really pulling for you guys to get a big'un. You are way overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Like I mentioned earlier, probably silly to look at anything specific, but I'd say in general anyone in the state of TN (especially north of I-40) would be in the "game" with this one. It has been consistently modeled as moisture laden and timing will be the key. Lots of things can (and will) change with regards to specifics with this event. What is important for now is the consistency in showing the midweek system bringing the cold and laying down the front along or near the gulf. This should help initiate overrunning initially, and possibly western gulf cyclogenesis as the energy from the southwest approaches. It will be all about timing and depth of cold, but I think the threat itself is very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z Canadian is a nice storm for Kentucky back to northern Arkansas and northwest TN. Big snows depicted there in the long range. Unfortunately this is a viable solution, but the main point is the storm is still there in some form or fashion. Hope we get something to track as we head into next week. No one wants to chime in on the "sneaky" little snow possible Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z Canadian is a nice storm for Kentucky back to northern Arkansas and northwest TN. Big snows depicted there in the long range. Unfortunately this is a viable solution, but the main point is the storm is still there in some form or fashion. Hope we get something to track as we head into next week. No one wants to chime in on the "sneaky" little snow possible Sunday night? I will say that if I lived anywhere from about Dyersburg to just north of Nashville or points north/west I'd be pretty pumped about what the GGEM just showed for Monday. Looking at 3-5 inches. Areas juuuust south of that line might score some as well but that is splitting hairs. This one is gonna have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GGEM hour 96: 12z GFS hour 96: Edit: Just noticed the GGEM puts down a stout band of sleet on the eastern outer edge of that snow. Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville would be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z Canadian is a nice storm for Kentucky back to northern Arkansas and northwest TN. Big snows depicted there in the long range. Unfortunately this is a viable solution, but the main point is the storm is still there in some form or fashion. Hope we get something to track as we head into next week. No one wants to chime in on the "sneaky" little snow possible Sunday night? Looks to be multiple threats in the feb 7th-14th day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z Euro is more expansive with the snow at hour 96. Eastern highland rim westward gets 2 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes, but what I am talking about is the morning of Feb 3rd. No one doubts the potential in the long range. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here we go again at hour 138, rain changed to snow and west TN getting some love. Edit: That appears to lay down another 2-3 inches over to middle TN before petering out. That is according to the SV maps. WxBell maps don't show that oddly enough, dusting tops on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nashville looks like ice for the 2-3,looks like .50 qpf" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nashville looks like ice for the 2-3,looks like .50 qpf" Wonder at what point we will start seeing this portrayed n local media? They are mainly talking up the warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tonight they will mention wintry chance sun night/Monday morning. There is really good model consensus at this point....and the best of them all is the most bullish....at day 3/4. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro exploding at hour 192.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wonder at what point we will start seeing this portrayed n local media? They are mainly talking up the warm up When my charts load up i'll post it,it's also it's showing on my text .25 qpf snow,hard to tell exactly how much zr right now,but i'd imagine alot could be just ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another Euro weenie run. The whole state pretty much gets 8 to 12 inches by hour 222. There is a warm nose that comes up the eastern half of the state towards the end of that blast that is a little concerning. But, it doesn't seem to hurt the totals much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another Euro weenie run. The the whole state pretty much gets 8 to 12 inches by hour 222. There is a warm nose that comes up the eastern half of the state towards the end of that blast that is a little concerning. But, it doesn't seem to hurt the totals much. Such an interesting pattern to say the least, so much different than last year, and, likely different from next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking closer at the euro run from 192 on, I think a good bit of that snow would be sleet or ice (even rain), particularly on the eastern side of the state. Those details don't matter this far out but I'm surprised the snow maps don't reflect more of the 850mb and surface temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking closer at the euro run from 192 on, I think a good bit of that snow would be sleet or ice (even rain), particularly on the eastern side of the state. Those details don't matter this far out but I'm surprised the snow maps don't reflect more of the 850mb and surface temp issues. 192..your 850's are -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 192..your 850's are -2 Yeah and the storm is not even really over to me at that point. It explodes with snow quickly afterwards and the temps rise just as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah and the storm is not even really over to me at that point. It explodes with snow quickly afterwards and the temps rise just as quickly. Yup,definite bringing up a warm nose.We'll see how it plays out but those snow fall numbers would be far from right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Better hope the 12a euro ensembles are wrong. Looks like they paint a Miller B with marginal to warming 850s............for the storm next weekend. Still a long way away though....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Better hope the 12a euro ensembles are wrong. Looks like they paint a Miller B with marginal to warming 850s............for the storm next weekend. Still a long way away though....... I figured a good chunk of the members would explore the warmer temps aspect. The charts will be available soon, should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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