Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Potential looks much less on the 12z runs, both the GFS and Euro. As suspected, the SE ridge NEVER loses...and I mean never, when a system rides up it. Looks like after the skies open up for 5-7 days of rain, back to a temporary +PNA pattern and then a very real glimpse of spring. JB says that spring-like look is "fake spring" to paraphrase. I think we get two more shots of cold. One after the upcoming warm-up which does not look promising for snow. Then one more mid-late month. It does look like spring comes right on time and will be warmer than normal based on CPC. The NAO basically stays positive throughout the GFS run. If one thing has really hurt us this winter, it is a +NAO. Just a great lesson on how it can snow w/out it, but really to have multiple chances it must be negative for a longer period of time than it has been this winter. Winter is not over by a long shot, but we are 2/3 of the way there in terms of climo for most outside of the mountains or the odd, freak spring blizzard. edit: As tnweathernut stated earlier in this thread, we need split flow which has been scarce. Mr. Bob and Jeff, how do you think February plays out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Potential looks much less on the 12z runs, both the GFS and Euro. I wouldn't go that far. Nice and BIG highs sliding in from the northwest to southeast, and an active southern (or split) stream with TWO different impulses coming in at a latitude of southern CA or further. The first one may set the table for the second. It's happened that way before. I am no where near giving up on this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Pretty good agreement between the major models of a low pressure somewhere in the lower TN valley around hour 150. Ensembles look to agree (outside of the Euro 12z ensembles which aren't out yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Pretty good agreement between the major models of a low pressure somewhere in the lower TN valley around hour 150. Ensembles look to agree (outside of the Euro 12z ensembles which aren't out yet) The mid week system looks to be the sacrificial lamb for the weekend system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Per Packbacker in the SE forum: "Euro ENS mean is an App's runner for day 7-8 that tracks NE to right over Boston. I would think that would be a good track for central/west TN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The mid week system looks to be the sacrificial lamb for the weekend system Yes, I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 If the northern stream is a bit quicker, and the southern stream is a bit slower, the midweek system could be snow for parts of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 If it is an Apps runner, IMO it's a Lakes cutter. Memphis might have a shot. We would need the first system to drive a good cold shot right to the spine of the Apps...w/ no blocking this thing could go way west. With cold air in place the next system would ride the boundary between cold and warm air. If that first system doesn't drive down cold air, more than likely the slp tracks through central TN. -PNA isn't going to allow much else...unless, as you all stated earlier, that first system (w/ enough space between the two) can set the table for the pattern to follow. Really, what we need is a slider (second system) versus a system ejecting from Texas. Need that slp to slide below the TN Valley w/ cold air trapped on top much like the Euro earlier today. Time will tell. Tough to get snow anywhere in the TN Valley w/ that type of pattern(the Texas to Louisville, KY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 ^ this is what im looking form the first system to cut and bomb bring the front thru then have a follow up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 12z Euro ensembles seem to back up the op run pretty well. The farther west you go the wilder the members are. Here are some mean snowfall numbers through hour 240: Memphis 3.4 Jackson 4.0 Nashville 3.8 Chattanooga 1.2 Knoxville 2.0 Bristol 2.8 Virtually every member shows measurable snow in the first 3 cities. A good number of 1 foot+ ones in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 12z Euro ensembles seem to back up the op run pretty well. The farther west you go the wilder the members are. Here are some mean snowfall numbers through hour 240: Memphis 3.4 Jackson 4.0 Nashville 3.8 Chattanooga 1.2 Knoxville 2.0 Bristol 2.8 Virtually every member shows measurable snow in the first 3 cities. A good number of 1 foot+ ones in there too. Will be interested in the overnight run of the Euro; the 18Z GFS plays it down a lot basically cold rain for my area - north of Nashville - which is likely to take place anyway if previous systems are any indication, one can hope though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z Euro ensembles seem to back up the op run pretty well. The farther west you go the wilder the members are. Here are some mean snowfall numbers through hour 240: Memphis 3.4 Jackson 4.0 Nashville 3.8 Chattanooga 1.2 Knoxville 2.0 Bristol 2.8 Virtually every member shows measurable snow in the first 3 cities. A good number of 1 foot+ ones in there too. Stove, Do the majority of individuals cut the chance with the first system and give those numbers via system number two......? Just curious if there is a big spread for system number one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Stove, Do the majority of individuals cut the chance with the first system and give those numbers via system number two......? Just curious if there is a big spread for system number one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Just eyeballing it, they seem bullish on the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tnweathernut, can you post Cosgrove's comments? On an iPhone and it is a pain at the moment. His thinking supports your ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Robert on board @WxSouth: lowering storm tracks late next week could offer up another Southeast/TN Valley/Midatlantic Winter storm threat. #sewx Active pattern Feb. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well the Euro keeps insisting Tennessee will get a widespread 8-18 inch snow amounts in 8-10 days. I am curious about the 850s in relation to the precip timing. Can someone with access post the data for hours 204-240 for the major TV cities from Memphis to Huntsville, Nashville, Crossville, Knox, and Tri. As of 216 they'd be borderline for East Tennessee south of the border counties stretching back to South of Nash. How fast to they crash and how much precip falls between 216 and 240? I see the posted sn maps but they often seem to include all frozen precip outcomes. The GFS is further South and East and just buries the Carolina's, giving East Tennessee 4-8 and leaving middle and western Valley areas out. But both models have a big southern stream storm in this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 CPC maps from day 6-14 look about like they have most of the winter. Below normal for Tennessee and points North and West. The SE ridge mostly effects GA/Florida.Carolinas in the 6-10 range and it's influence shrinks further SE in 8-14. Above normal precip is favored for both periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I've only glanced at the 0z Euro ensembles, will tally up the numbers later, but the general theme I'm seeing is this. Memphis, Nashville, and even TRI look bullish. Knoxville and Chattanooga have significantly fewer members showing the hit. This is in regards to the big storm towards the end of the period. This basically goes along with the op run and also backs up the 850 temps concern that John mentioned. There is a period where above freezing 850s push up into the state from the south before retreating back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Control cuts those Euro numbs in half,but i'd still take that and run..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 6z GFS vs 0z EURO compromise would look nice. Don't we all wish it was that easy? I think the leader/follower idea is alive and well, but a LONG time to go to get there and a LOT can go wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Right now the players are talking about having a game. It'll be a while before we can confirm they are, even longer until they take the field. The GGEM is also showing a storm in this tiimeframe, but it's a big GLC. 6z GFS vs 0z EURO compromise would look nice. Don't we all wish it was that easy?I think the leader/follower idea is alive and well, but a LONG time to go to get there and a LOT can go wrong.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lots of snow chances through next week on the Euro.Also the Euro is showing a possible ice storm for Nashville ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 00Z 30-JAN -5.9 -11.3 1030 37 6 0.00 548 525 THU 06Z 30-JAN -10.5 -8.5 1029 45 6 0.00 552 530 THU 12Z 30-JAN -11.1 -4.7 1027 43 3 0.00 556 536 THU 18Z 30-JAN 1.7 0.3 1023 20 13 0.00 562 543 FRI 00Z 31-JAN -0.9 3.1 1020 30 14 0.00 565 549 FRI 06Z 31-JAN -2.5 0.8 1022 42 29 0.00 566 549 FRI 12Z 31-JAN -2.9 0.3 1022 51 41 0.00 569 552 FRI 18Z 31-JAN 7.6 2.6 1021 40 33 0.00 572 555 SAT 00Z 01-FEB 2.7 4.9 1018 64 34 0.00 572 557 SAT 06Z 01-FEB 0.9 6.0 1019 56 34 0.00 573 558 SAT 12Z 01-FEB 1.5 7.8 1019 76 30 0.00 572 557 SAT 18Z 01-FEB 11.2 6.8 1017 69 22 0.00 573 558 SUN 00Z 02-FEB 8.7 7.1 1015 92 12 0.00 572 560 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 9.7 9.5 1014 98 48 0.00 571 559 SUN 12Z 02-FEB 5.9 7.0 1017 99 97 0.12 568 555 SUN 18Z 02-FEB 1.3 5.8 1022 97 69 0.28 567 550 MON 00Z 03-FEB 0.0 2.8 1023 90 98 0.17 566 547 MON 06Z 03-FEB -0.8 1.3 1023 91 99 0.24 564 546 MON 12Z 03-FEB -2.2 0.9 1025 81 76 0.05 564 544 MON 18Z 03-FEB 4.4 0.7 1026 55 6 0.00 568 548 TUE 00Z 04-FEB -1.1 2.2 1025 70 6 0.00 570 550 TUE 06Z 04-FEB -2.4 4.5 1024 64 10 0.00 571 551 TUE 12Z 04-FEB -1.6 5.7 1021 75 15 0.00 570 553 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 5.3 9.9 1014 97 97 0.29 568 557 WED 00Z 05-FEB 12.3 10.7 1006 98 87 0.32 566 561 WED 06Z 05-FEB 6.3 7.0 1009 98 65 0.84 562 555 WED 12Z 05-FEB -1.7 -2.3 1018 90 27 0.04 553 539 WED 18Z 05-FEB -0.4 -9.5 1026 62 33 0.01 554 534 THU 00Z 06-FEB -1.3 -9.2 1030 61 24 0.00 558 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Actually looking at some of those soundings i said ice storm and with it coming in at the time of day it would be snow and not ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking at the 0z Euro ensembles a little closer, it's worth noting that the means are WAY less than the op on snow. I don't see a mean that is over 4 inches. Most are 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking at the 0z Euro ensembles a little closer, it's worth noting that the means are WAY less than the op on snow. I don't see a mean that is over 4 inches. Most are 2 to 4. yeah the ops are real bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Maybe I should be much more excited.........? @WxSouth: February looking to go go down in History books for weather across nation. Blend late '70s and early '80s. Incredible 5H anomalies coming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Maybe I should be much more excited.........? @WxSouth: February looking to go go down in History books for weather across nation. Blend late '70s and early '80s. Incredible 5H anomalies coming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Robert is on a bit of a hot streak right now....I sure as heck hope he is right. From my amatuer eyes, I agree with his sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes he is. I really think 500 looks pretty good going forward after next Wednesday, and hearing the euro ensembles at 0z were further south, and seeing pretty good agreement for a gulf system with quite a bit of cold air around makes me optimistic to begin with. I think we are headed toward a pretty good period .....to at least track, but we have to get inside 120/144 before I can let myself go all in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's like a conveyor belt of 1035-1045 highs at hour 165 on the 12z GFS from far northwest Canada, all the way down into the southern plains and deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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