Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 0z Euro didn't show the mid-week snow but does have nice looking event lining up at hour 240. The op run is still chilly for next week but the ensembles are downright frigid, especially for the eastern valley. I will not be surprised if we start seeing some interesting things (colorful clowns) on the Doc within the next few days. The weekly EPS indicated all sorts of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Someone care to decipher this? WxSouth flow in North America will become a classic Big Arctic High builder next week. Litttle nervous at this flow,northern stream meets srn stream Is he talking about being nervous for a huge snow storm, or being nervous for severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The pattern looks good again....just be patient in seeing the details...whatever comes out over the next few days won't be the verbatim truth but as long as it keeps the big arctic high and the energy undercutting it through the SE....something good should happen for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Looks like the GFS is sniffing it out,that's actually some impressive cold on my text for BNA THE 26 through the 5th,just a couple hrs. above freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sweet mother of mercy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lots of signs of the PV marching back into the Upper GL. Masters says -20 to -35 departures coming in 8-10 days in the Eastern 2/3rds of the country, http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2634 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sweet mother of mercy.... Clown map destroys NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z Euro continues to beat the drum...1052mb high over the northern Plains on March 1....."This is the winter that never ends....it just goes on and on my friends" Don't get fixated on the storm track at this time...still a low running the gulf...winter storm on the northern fringes still looks good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z Euro continues to beat the drum...1052mb high over the northern Plains on March 1....."This is the winter that never ends....it just goes on and on my friends" Don't get fixated on the storm track at this time...still a low running the gulf...winter storm on the northern fringes still looks good.... I agree Mr. Bob, if there is just a little more spacing b/w that storm and the one on its heels, could turn out to be a very nice storm for many on our forum. speaking of the one on it's heels, wonder if it gets crushed or becomes a possible round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12Z runs were a little more kind than the 00Z runs though the Euro just really squelched it over night. We still have a decent shot at something this time period. I am kinda surprised the Euro was so confined in its precip shield given that the Arctic high is weaker and not as far south....GFS just overpowers the late week system and brings single digits and teens to our area. I find this the less attractive alternative as the GFS is prone to this mistake...and of course I don't want to spend all week prepping for another round of high demand...awful quiet in here as it seems winter burnout has taken hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Can we talk about this beast mode vort that the models are progging to come ashore near san fran around day 7? That guy is going to have an effect on weather next week. Would love to be in the sierra Nevada when that comes ashore. Will be feet and feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 And also - the euro is digging late week system down the rockies on a bee line towards naples, fl. How likely is that to occur? I don't think I've even seen a solution like that modeled before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 The models are waffling all over the place with the next week or so but the southern stream is somewhat active. The last few runs of each model have shown various 2-4 inch snows for both the western half and the eastern half of the Valley. Today the 12z GGEM was kind to most of us, with probably a general 1-3 inch snow fall over most of the Tennessee Valley except around Chattanooga. There is an excellent southern track with a fairly strong LP on the Euro and the GGEM but the precip shield is very small, especially on the Euro. I honestly don't see that small a precip shield with a LP sitting over Southern Louisiana tracking to N Florida. It did come a little further north with the shield at 12z vs 00z. The Euro at 00z showed a fairly long duration of light snow across the area around Wednesday but backed off some at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 storms going through N/FL will never be a storm for mid to west of the valley,especially with a basic zonal flow if you want to see snow,yeah there would be a over running event more than the models show but without even looking you'd see a big WAA at the upper levels.Also the AO is still + so i even question how much cold there would be into next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 GGEM sticks with the idea of .2-.4 inches of precip falling as snow towards next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Might be time for you all to look at the 0z Euro. Showed potential on several occasions. I am not referring to qpf but to actual pieces of energy in the pattern. Big improvement...now, I am looking at 24 hr low resolution maps....check hr 72, 144, an 216. 72 looks light. 144 looks like a slider and snow. 216 looks like a signal for a slp out of the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 6z GFS and 0z Euro show no signs of an Arctic outbreak. Temps will be marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Both the Euro at 0z and control at 0z show multiple light snow opportunities over the next 10+ days (3 opportunities) for much of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 12z Euro run signals a continued winter pattern through at least day 10 for the TN Valley. Details are uncertain, but split flow is the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z Euro run signals a continued winter pattern through at least day 10 for the TN Valley. Details are uncertain, bit split flow is the theme. EPS looked much better today on the 12z,,3 or 4 shots.Hopefully it sticks with it.Teles look better, looks like some help with the EPO and the spag plots on the GEFS AO looks to be headed -.Looking at the 2'm's on the EPS it would back it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Nice look at the some of the GFS members,looks like cold air is locked in the Valley 7-14 day period,i like it !! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_0z/t7loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 We're getting to the point of needed big anomalies to get wintry weather in non-elevated parts of the Valley. Especially far south and far west. Fortunately late Feb/Early March is when the atmosphere starts energizing and if we can get cold air in place, it's prone to have explosive results when they do meet. Be it severe or heavy snow. The huge events across the entire Valley tend to be in November and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Like John said,our biggest snows happens in March.All the teleconnections are in our favor for something good in wk.1 of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Looks like some light snow early tues/wed..followed by a decent shot March 1,then when have we heard that date March 3 before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 0ZGFS,.40 qpfs for nashville with temps 33-34 on the gfs,850's are good and coming in at night time should throw some dynamics into the system on the 1st.Close call though,the EPS throws a inch or two though for middle to west,it'd be a higher amount towards the upslopes towards the east valey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 0z Euro deterministic gives far NW TN a good 2 to 4 inches while it's control run gives 2 to 5 across the NW half of the state as well as TRI. The ensemble means look pretty good and many of the members are showing snow with even some big dogs (greater than 6 inches, even some footers). Means: Bristol 2.9 inches (7 big dogs) Knoxville 2.0 inches (1 big dog) Chattanooga 1.5 inches (4 big dogs) Nashville 2.7 inches (4 big dogs) Paris 3.0 inches (6 big dogs) Memphis 2.3 inches (4 big dogs) Not bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 0z Euro deterministic gives far NW TN a good 2 to 4 inches while it's control run gives 2 to 5 across the NW half of the state as well as TRI. The ensemble means look pretty good and many of the members are showing snow with even some big dogs (greater than 6 inches, even some footers). Means: Bristol 2.9 inches (7 big dogs) Knoxville 2.0 inches (1 big dog) Chattanooga 1.5 inches (4 big dogs) Nashville 2.7 inches (4 big dogs) Paris 3.0 inches (6 big dogs) Memphis 2.3 inches (4 big dogs) Not bad at all! Thanks for the update, Stovepipe! Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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