Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Last night, one of the Nashville stations did a story on the snow dome. Many people actually believe that there is a snow dome. Here in Memphis, I've been hearing about the bluff effect over and over and it's all quite maddening.Sent from my SCH-L710 I think the big problem, the climo pattern has shifted during the past 20 years. Robert, Foothills to many, has remarked often that he gets less rain. He should be in the perfect climo spot in southwest NC. I think Memphis and Nashville have suffered because it seems we have fewer GOM systems. The few that we have had were not favorable for you all. I do think we are gradually returning to that GOM slp pattern during the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 No, man. Just hasn't been as much to track in west and middle. . Also, like I said, most of us who've been around for a while know how long you guys in the east have waited for this. I've seen Chatty and Knoxville get killed by the downsloping time and time again when we've gotten snow in years past. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think the big problem, the climo pattern has shifted during the past 20 years. Robert, Foothills to many, has remarked often that he gets less rain. He should be in the perfect climo spot in southwest NC. I think Memphis and Nashville have suffered because it seems we have fewer GOM systems. The few that we have had were not favorable for you all. I do think we are gradually returning to that GOM slp pattern during the next decade. I'm not currently of the opinion that this is cyclical. I hope I'm wrong, obviously. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 I know it's tough for you guys in Memphis and Nashville, all along the 40 corridor. You guys have no elevation to help you, which basically gives you a much smaller window for snow to fall. I know it's easy to remember the big events that have happened in each place, especially if you were alive for some of them. But I imagine there were stretches just like this before. I was looking at the top 10 snow events of all time for Memphis and I think outside the 2009 upper level low and an event in 1956, 8 of the events were between 1960-1985, which was during an era of climatological maximum for snow/cold in the whole Eastern U.S. Even then, there were several events under 5 inches in the top 10 ever. Nashville's struggles make much less sense, but out of their top 27 events (6+), 12 of them were in the cold/snow period from 1885-1918, with most clustered around 1892-1902. All but 5 of the rest of the top 27 were in the 1960s-1980s snow/cold maximum. So 22-27 major snowfalls in Nashville came in two periods known to be well above average for severe cold/snow. It becomes even more clustered when you break it down. 1963 had 3 of the events, 1966 had 2, 1886 had 2, Almost 30% of the major Nashville snowstorms in the last 130 years occurred in 3 years. Which seems to suggest that if conditions are right, Nashville will have frequent heavy snows. But that it can go long stretches without the conditions being great for snow. But you can take solace in that quite a few of the heaviest snow events for Nashville happened later than the current date, with several happening in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It is frustrating when it seems all points around you get snow and you're left on the outside looking in. With that being said, I try not to focus too much on it because I know...at some point...we'll have good winters again. If nothing else, this winter has proven that Mother Nature can still produce the cold. We, in Middle TN, just haven't had the right pattern conducive for snowfall in this area. If we have a decent pattern conducive for winter weather around here, we don't have to have the bone-chilling cold that this winter has produced. As lame as it seems, I'll just chalk it up to bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The warm-up, according to the 12z Euro, ends Saturday with some very cold air looming. The 0z isotherm is stretched south of TN east to west beginning Sunday. Let's see if this holds on future runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Adding to Carvers comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Adding to Carvers comment index.php 699×770 .png I saw that is it possible that middle TN still has a shot at some snow this year or is it going to get shunted south of us again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 To supplement nut's post... WxSouthWe're now entering that time of year where things change extremely fast. And models will generate and lose systems quickly, so forecasters have to dig in to the pattern and really work hard to create a safe forecast beyond 5 days. Right now, we can say that this is mostly "zonal" flow..west to east, and warmer than what we've seen this Winter. But already, shenanigans are showing up quickly. All models build another major western ridge (aleutian low, western ridge, eastern US trough) by days 8 and beyond. Normally the models are good in that regard, but the devil is in the details on western Ridging. They can and do overbuild it. But if we get some consistency on yet another major amplified western Ridge, I'd say watch out for yet another Big Cold Blast coming down the pike, and possibly, another Winter Storm somewhere between the Tenn. Valley, Carolinas and MidAtlantic. Thats far enough out not to worry yet. Enjoy the warmer weather until then.Below: Friday, cold front with showers and storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I saw that is it possible that middle TN still has a shot at some snow this year or is it going to get shunted south of us again? Storm likely to Slam MEM - BNA corridor in the next 10 days. Top 10 analogs show grater than 50% probability of this. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z GGEM has a very nice snow event for the entire Tennessee Valley region in the middle of next week. GFS also has a storm during this timeframe with lighter snows, as it's suppressed way down in the Gulf. Hopefully the old "Thunder in winter" analogy holds up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 From about Day 8 or Day 10, depending on the model, through Day 14/15 a cold split flow is forecast. It is the right pattern for snow in the South, but no promises. First couple cold fronts probably cold chases rain. After that, we'll see what split flow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For what it's worth, the Euro ensembles are bullish on a stout cold shot across the TN Valley around February 26th. For example in Knoxville, the mean minimum temp is just above 20 degrees (some members as low as 10), the mean maximum temp is less than 30 degrees (some members as low as 15). There are some members showing snow and even one big dog around that time. Other cities around the region look similar, Nashville was even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 The GGEM still has the GOM storm in the Wed-Thurs timeframe next week, shows a general .2-.5 qpf falling as snow across the whole Valley, this run the greater amounts are south of 40 into NE Miss and across N.Alabama The GFS also has a snow producer in the same time frame with 1-3 inches from the stateline and points north, as the GFS has the storm very suppressed in the Gulf again, and then slides it up a couple hundred miles off the Carolina coast. Which as we know, isn't a bad place to be on the extended GFS. The Euro has a LP right off the SC coast with a big H in Iowa at 216. It passes a storm through 48 hours before from Texas to off the East Coast. 24 hour panels make it tough to see what's going on in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Storm likely to Slam MEM - BNA corridor in the next 10 days. Top 10 analogs show grater than 50% probability of this. Sent from my SCH-L710 Not to be a negative nancy but this is all too familiar only to end up 5 days before the event have it go south of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The GGEM still has the GOM storm in the Wed-Thurs timeframe next week, shows a general .2-.5 qpf falling as snow across the whole Valley, this run the greater amounts are south of 40 into NE Miss and across N.Alabama The GFS also has a snow producer in the same time frame with 1-3 inches from the stateline and points north, as the GFS has the storm very suppressed in the Gulf again, and then slides it up a couple hundred miles off the Carolina coast. Which as we know, isn't a bad place to be on the extended GFS. The Euro has a LP right off the SC coast with a big H in Iowa at 216. It passes a storm through 48 hours before from Texas to off the East Coast. 24 hour panels make it tough to see what's going on in-between. This is my point, I was speaking with a student just last week that lives in Birmingham; she was considering moving to Nashville to get out of the snow; she was dead serious and so am I, this weather is screwed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not to be a negative nancy but this is all too familiar only to end up 5 days before the event have it go south of the area Difference is here that I'm not basing that on modeled storm but on modeled pattern & climo. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS looks a lot like it did in extended runs leading into the prior big storm. Dumps heavy snow across Arkansas, mostly passes the TV region to the South and then pops a low and dumps on the Eastern half of the Carolinas. Right now the beginnings are around 180, by tomorrow nights 00z runs the entire event should be closing in on that time frame, As of now, easily cold enough to pull it off, but the moisture is still suppressed. If we can get this general storm to stick around a few days, I'll begin to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Also impressed by the amount of frigid air pointed at the Eastern U.S by day 8 on the Euro, on through day 10. Upstream -30 to -35c 850 temps pointed our way that looks to slide in from Minnesota and head South and East in the extended, bringing our 850s into the -10 to -15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Difference is here that I'm not basing that on modeled storm but on modeled pattern & climo. Sent from my SCH-L710 Funny, I see no reference to model in my post, I too am speaking of a pattern, one that should have yielded snow for Nashville long before now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Funny, I see no reference to model in my post, I too am speaking of a pattern, one that should have yielded snow for Nashville long before now. Fair enough. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Day-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 And so it begins.......again. Not discounting the severe setup later this week. @WxSouth: watching Oklahoma eastward through Carolinas early next week for Wintry type system. Just potential now #ncwx #scwx #vawx #tnwx #arwx #okwx Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 David Aldrich says heavy sleet Friday morning across East Tennessee. He also mentions snow next Tuesday, which MRX now has a slight chance of in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 David Aldrich says heavy sleet Friday morning across East Tennessee. He also mentions snow next Tuesday, which MRX now has a slight chance of in the forecast. The 12z GFS meteogram showed 1.8 inches of "snow" here with temps in the mid 30s. I believe at least one run yesterday showed sleet. So it's possible we wake up to something frozen falling for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 He said soundings indicated sleet to him, looks like the column is below freezing from 700 to near the surface to me, so I don't see the melting layer that would produce sleet. At least on the GFS. I actually expect a cold chasing moisture set up instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Not a very good look for Mid to west of the valley.When its cold its dry,when its warm it wet.East still has shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 He said soundings indicated sleet to him, looks like the column is below freezing from 700 to near the surface to me, so I don't see the melting layer that would produce sleet. At least on the GFS. I actually expect a cold chasing moisture set up instead. The man might be on to something, GFS keeps trying to throw down a few pellets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 No changes to my extended thinking. Models will find and lose systems intermittently for next week. The 6-12 day pattern is still cold leaning split flow. Such a pattern is favorable for snow in our region. No promises, just don't give up when the model does. A system may or may not form, but the pattern is favorable. PS. not going to make a sleet call 3 days out for Knoxvegas. There is a reason it has a nickname, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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