BamaChemE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Misses us here in Alabama once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS would be awesome. 0.50 qpf here all snow. I'm cautiously optimistic. I definitely like the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Misses us here in Alabama once again. Give it a day, it's gonna change a bunch more between now and then most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 But I thought they generally trend more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1. Going to be many, many solutions offered by all models. 2. Looks like most wx models jumped the gun w/ this weekend's storm but still seem to favor a southern Apps snow this week. 3. Though we might see some good spring wx mid-month. PNA trending upwards towards neutral. NAO trending downward towards negative. AO forecast to go in the tank. Feels like I am looking at the indices in late December. I LOVE cold weather, but I have gotten used to warm winters. Anyway, prolonged warmth is looking less likely...but we will see some warm. I do predict it will be warm by June. 4. Looks like later this month will give us yet another window for snow, though I am less certain about that one than I have been about the upcoming week. 5. Lastly, we all need to get together some time. Eat at Calhoun's. Whatever. Does not have to be anytime soon. I was thinking the Orange and White game might be a good time. edit: Of course we have fans not of the orange cloth. Just was brainstorming. If interested, throw some ideas into the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 As for trends...GOM lows generally trend more northwest if they deepen. As for bowling ball lows from out west, the trend south if they deepen. Somebody correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1. Going to be many, many solutions offered by all models. 2. Looks like most wx models jumped the gun w/ this weekend's storm but still seem to favor a southern Apps snow this week. 3. Though we might see some good spring wx mid-month. PNA trending upwards towards neutral. NAO trending downward towards negative. AO forecast to go in the tank. Feels like I am looking at the indices in late December. I LOVE cold weather, but I have gotten used to warm winters. Anyway, prolonged warmth is looking less likely...but we will see some warm. I do predict it will be warm by June. 4. Looks like later this month will give us yet another window for snow, though I am less certain about that one than I have been about the upcoming week. 5. Lastly, we all need to get together some time. Eat at Calhoun's. Whatever. Does not have to be anytime soon. I was thinking the Orange and White game might be a good time. edit: Of course we have fans not of the orange cloth. Just was brainstorming. If interested, throw some ideas into the banter thread. I've already been thinking along these lines. I'd be all about a gathering, it would be a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I also have been thinking about a get together...something around the O&W game would be great...or also, even something for those around the tri cities. Maybe meet at someplace like Johnny Bruscoes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just looks like the GFS wants to explode mid week and give someone a good snow..Hope I'm right...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know we're all loving the current event unfolding, but it's looking like a pretty beefy clipper will crash down on the back side of this. I now have a 70 percent chance of rain/snow Friday and 60 percent Friday night. JKL is saying 1-3 possible for their area and that advisories may be needed for it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OK..once we get through this clipper type system this weekend, it looks like a big warm up for next week. What is the 10-14 day outlook showing? Are there more cold and snow chances toward the end of the month, first of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OK..once we get through this clipper type system this weekend, it looks like a big warm up for next week. What is the 10-14 day outlook showing? Are there more cold and snow chances toward the end of the month, first of March? The 12z GFS hinted long term at a return to cold late in the period. The 0z Euro looked like it might turn cold D+10. I think the pattern is more warm than cold, however. It would be great if someone could share the Euro weeklies. However, as anyone says, we can and do get snow during warm patterns. I am more worried about flooding next week. Heard the mountains picked up a foot plus last night. Any rain at higher elevations could be a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I keep seeing signs of a nasty squall line around next weekend with a severe threat.Both the GFS and Euro are showing it.We'll have to keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 donsutherland1...copied and pasted from main board. Mid-Day Thoughts... 1. The ongoing snowstorm has pushed Philadelphia, New York City, and Islip past 50" for the winter. Baltimore has now surpassed 25", so the 1/25-2/15 period is delivering in a big way on the potential at which the forecast pattern was hinting. Detroit, Islip, New York City, and Newark have all received 20" or more snow during this timeframe. 2. The storm may yet deliver another round of very heavy snow as it pushes away from the region this evening and tonight. The 12z GFS brings almost 1" qpf to Poughkeepsie overnight. Exact details still remain to be determined. 3. An additional clipper system may blow up as it moves offshore bringing additional accumulations to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Friday night through Saturday night. 4. Moderation appears on course afterward. But it remains to be seen whether this moderation is a pause before winter returns for another appearance. The operational GFS turns cold in the extended range, so the return of cold and opportunities for snowfall is very much on the table as February closes/March commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hope a wet pattern holds true through mid march. At least with that we have a chance at something with a random ULL, marginal cold shot, etc. Beats the dry clipper stuff for sure. I know some areas have had more rain than others, but I'll welcome a wet end to winter here. Gonna plant the spring greens first of next week along with some mater plants under grow light in the garage. Any snow is bonus of course at this point, but I'm pumped about spring and veggie gardening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hope a wet pattern holds true through mid march. At least with that we have a chance at something with a random ULL, marginal cold shot, etc. Beats the dry clipper stuff for sure. I know some areas have had more rain than others, but I'll welcome a wet end to winter here. Gonna plant the spring greens first of next week along with some mater plants under grow light in the garage. Any snow is bonus of course at this point, but I'm pumped about spring and veggie gardening! Great that you guys in East TN got some snow but my last season here I would love at least one good snow for middle TN; next year I will be about an hour north of Indianapolis - they have got 53" so far this year, I cant wait to have reliable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Weeklies are showing cold coming back around the 23rd to around the 28th.Looking at the 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z GFS hinted long term at a return to cold late in the period. The 0z Euro looked like it might turn cold D+10. I think the pattern is more warm than cold, however. It would be great if someone could share the Euro weeklies. However, as anyone says, we can and do get snow during warm patterns. I am more worried about flooding next week. Heard the mountains picked up a foot plus last night. Any rain at higher elevations could be a problem... I'm still on my free trial of WxBell so I'll try to decipher the Euro Weeklies with a quick glance. Week 1 (days 0-7): After this clipper we warm up as ridging and a southwest flow dominates. A huge trough is starting to drop into the Pacific Northwest. By the end of this period temps are running 5-10 above average. Week 2 (days 8 -14): The huge trough out west drops into the western part of the country while we are in a lot of ridging. Temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge looks to be about 578-582 DM on the ensemble mean. At the end of this period the trough swings eastward which would probably be a Lake's cutter and a nice cold front. Maybe some severe weather too then we go 0-5 degrees below normal which moderates to near normal. Week 3 (days 15-21): The trough lifts out of the Northeast and we head into a more zonal pattern. A very broad trough is centered in the middle of the country but it is a zonal look. Temperatures throughout the whole period average 0-3 degrees below normal. This could be a period of some overrunning. Week 4 (days 22-28): That trough moves eastward and another one is dropping into the west but it is not very deep. That trough moves into Canada and another one dropping into the west. Meanwhile we are under some slight ridging. Temps go below normal and alternate to above normal every few days by 0-2 degrees either way. Doesn't look like a blowtorch at all and there is no hint of the SE ridge. Week 5(days 29-32): The previous trough dips into the Southwestern states and the run ends. So in summary from my non-professional eyes we blowtorch in week 1-2 as the flow amplifies and drops into the west. Then after that the flow becomes more zonal and we average slightly below normal for the rest of the run with only a few brief warm ups compared to average. For fun the control run had a 3-4 contour cutoff in the southeast around day 30 (March 14) and then two more cutoffs traverse the country after that. We may very well have a break towards the end of February and then back to some fun and games if we can get some cold air to hook up with those cutoffs. March is the month know for cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm still on my free trial of WxBell so I'll try to decipher the Euro Weeklies with a quick glance. Week 1 (days 0-7): After this clipper we warm up as ridging and a southwest flow dominates. A huge trough is starting to drop into the Pacific Northwest. By the end of this period temps are running 5-10 above average. Week 2 (days 8 -14): The huge trough out west drops into the western part of the country while we are in a lot of ridging. Temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge looks to be about 578-582 DM on the ensemble mean. At the end of this period the trough swings eastward which would probably be a Lake's cutter and a nice cold front. Maybe some severe weather too then we go 0-5 degrees below normal which moderates to near normal. Week 3 (days 15-21): The trough lifts out of the Northeast and we head into a more zonal pattern. A very broad trough is centered in the middle of the country but it is a zonal look. Temperatures throughout the whole period average 0-3 degrees below normal. This could be a period of some overrunning. Week 4 (days 22-28): That trough moves eastward and another one is dropping into the west but it is not very deep. That trough moves into Canada and another one dropping into the west. Meanwhile we are under some slight ridging. Temps go below normal and alternate to above normal every few days by 0-2 degrees either way. Doesn't look like a blowtorch at all and there is no hint of the SE ridge. Week 5(days 29-32): The previous trough dips into the Southwestern states and the run ends. So in summary from my non-professional eyes we blowtorch in week 1-2 as the flow amplifies and drops into the west. Then after that the flow becomes more zonal and we average slightly below normal for the rest of the run with only a few brief warm ups compared to average. For fun the control run had a 3-4 contour cutoff in the southeast around day 30 (March 14) and then two more cutoffs traverse the country after that. We may very well have a break towards the end of February and then back to some fun and games if we can get some cold air to hook up with those cutoffs. March is the month know for cutoffs. I very much appreciated this post, thank you for taking the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hope a wet pattern holds true through mid march. At least with that we have a chance at something with a random ULL, marginal cold shot, etc. Beats the dry clipper stuff for sure. I know some areas have had more rain than others, but I'll welcome a wet end to winter here. Gonna plant the spring greens first of next week along with some mater plants under grow light in the garage. Any snow is bonus of course at this point, but I'm pumped about spring and veggie gardening! Stove, Hey, don't forget about your peeps over in Memphis and Nashville who haven't seen an inch for the entire winter (actually in 3 years) before you root on spring. Congrats in the snow but no spring yet. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Stove, Hey, don't forget about your peeps over in Memphis and Nashville who haven't seen an inch for the entire winter (actually in 3 years) before you root on spring. Congrats in the snow but no spring yet. Sent from my SCH-L710 Starting to feel like this is the SE board pt.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 500 anomalies suggest colder weather again after a brief taste spring as heard above. The weekly charts themselves show pretty strong positive anomalies along the west coast all three weeks after next week and the average 2m anomaly for weeks 2 and 3 is around 3 or 4 degrees below normal. Still opportunity left for our central and western brethren! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Stove, Hey, don't forget about your peeps over in Memphis and Nashville who haven't seen an inch for the entire winter (actually in 3 years) before you root on spring. Congrats in the snow but no spring yet. Sent from my SCH-L710 I am still rooting for you guys over that way. I grew up in Nashville and know the pains they have had, literally for the last 20 years. It really is amazing to see y'all get missed time and time again. I have joked with a friend of mine for over 10 years about the snow shield in northern middle TN. I am noticing more and more people talking about the snow shield in and around Nashville. It used to be funny, now it's not so much funny as it is sad. I think once past this week and parts of the following that we are not done with winter and you guys may be in a better position to score. There is still an awful lot of cold air in Canada, and while to this point it's largely been wasted (for middle TN especially - missing the early winter events to the east and the recent events to the south and west) I think you guys will still have an opportunity or two. Hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Starting to feel like this is the SE board pt.2. I hear you - we have successfully dodged several systems over the past few years alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Tnweathernut has some great points. Thought I would throw in my two cents as well. 1. The NAO takes a dip late month towards neutral and the PNA moves towards positive, albeit briefly. Two weeks before this past storm, they looked exactly the same way but did not verify. That said, they actually did signal this past East coast storm. I have learned to watch the NAO. Whenever it moves significantly up or down...that seems to be it tipping its hand. Late February seems to be that next time frame. Would also fit climo. 2. The GFS, say from day 12 onward, hints at a return to a trough centered somewhere over the eastern half of the country. The 0z Euro, against my own thinking of how winter ends(thought warm), on days 9-10 seems to return to a similar pattern that we just left. It really seemed like winter's back was broken(and I am still not convinced it's not). But, it does now appear based on the past two days of modeling, that we have at least one more period of winter weather. Also, the weeklies that 1234 and Mr Bob shared have been money all winter and should be weighted heavily. Once we return to the cold pattern in the East, I have to think Memphis and Nashville have a shot. Though the chances were missed, each return to cold in the East involved a system running just west of the Apps. Some model runs have showed the trough centered for a time just east of the middle part of the country. We are pulling for you all out there! 3. That gets to the question of if it will snow again this winter. If that cold verifies, then one more round of winter WX appears there for the taking. Every single time it has turned cold this winter in our area, someone in the Great Valley has seen some form of winter weather in varying amounts going back to Thanksgiving. 4. In conclusion, I would not watch the models in the medium range for particular systems but time frames where models keep popping winter storms coinciding with cold. Easy, huh? How amazing was the last system...-PNA, +NAO? I guess maybe the best signal was a relaxation of the winter pattern. Now maybe, we watch the return to cold as the next signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Starting to feel like this is the SE board pt.2. Yo, I'm not rooting against you guys and I'm happy for all of you that got snow. Most of you had waited a long time for that snow. That's a pretty key difference, I think. We all can understand each other's plights because we've all been through it. So, don't be taking things like you might find on other boards. I don't think that misery loves company. More like, I'm just saying - remember your brothers when they're down. I'm happy for all of you and I'm truly glad that you guys got a big storm. Just gotta keep it all in perspective, whether rich or poor. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Starting to feel like this is the SE board pt.2.No, man. Just hasn't been as much to track in west and middle. Edit: what there was to track fizzled. We have only been a forum for two months. You all just jump right in there. Nashville is a big market as well as Memphis. If anything, the board probably will be weighted more towards the Nashville and Memphis markets as word spreads and you all have some winter weather. Makes sense. Nashville, Knoxville, Chatt, Huntsville, and Memphis (maybe Birmingham) as you all know, are big population centers. I am 100% confident this will prove to be true, the weighting of the board towards bigger markets in terms of members. Just give it time. I plug this forum everywhere I am on the net. Edit: Now TRI is not small. It is no urban center though. We have about 300,000 people in this "metro" area. Lastly, the patten end of the month is one to watch for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 500 anomalies suggest colder weather again after a brief taste spring as heard above. The weekly charts themselves show pretty strong positive anomalies along the west coast all three weeks after next week and the average 2m anomaly for weeks 2 and 3 is around 3 or 4 degrees below normal. Still opportunity left for our central and western brethren! Thanks, Bob! I think the real depression over in the MEM/BNA corridor is that many feel they blew another favorable winter. I haven't seen anyone begrudge those of you on the eastern valleys of snow except for some good-natured ribbing. I think there's that sense of feeling hopeless not just for this winter but like it's something that will never change. I think a few spring flakes would do wonders for the general despondency that seems to have spread into the general population. Weather has a powerful effect on moods and most people around here are tired of hearing New Yorkers complain about how terrible all that snow is on TV. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I am still rooting for you guys over that way. I grew up in Nashville and know the pains they have had, literally for the last 20 years. It really is amazing to see y'all get missed time and time again. I have joked with a friend of mine for over 10 years about the snow shield in northern middle TN. I am noticing more and more people talking about the snow shield in and around Nashville. It used to be funny, now it's not so much funny as it is sad. I think once past this week and parts of the following that we are not done with winter and you guys may be in a better position to score. There is still an awful lot of cold air in Canada, and while to this point it's largely been wasted (for middle TN especially - missing the early winter events to the east and the recent events to the south and west) I think you guys will still have an opportunity or two. Hang in there. Thank you. Last night, one of the Nashville stations did a story on the snow dome. Many people actually believe that there is a snow dome. Here in Memphis, I've been hearing about the bluff effect over and over and it's all quite maddening. Sent from my SCH-L710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Tnweathernut has some great points. Thought I would throw in my two cents as well. 1. The NAO takes a dip late month towards neutral and the PNA moves towards positive, albeit briefly. Two weeks before this past storm, they looked exactly the same way but did not verify. That said, they actually did signal this past East coast storm. I have learned to watch the NAO. Whenever it moves significantly up or down...that seems to be it tipping its hand. Late February seems to be that next time frame. Would also fit climo. 2. The GFS, say from day 12 onward, hints at a return to a trough centered somewhere over the eastern half of the country. The 0z Euro, against my own thinking of how winter ends(thought warm), on days 9-10 seems to return to a similar pattern that we just left. It really seemed like winter's back was broken(and I am still not convinced it's not). But, it does now appear based on the past two days of modeling, that we have at least one more period of winter weather. Also, the weeklies that 1234 and Mr Bob shared have been money all winter and should be weighted heavily. Once we return to the cold pattern in the East, I have to think Memphis and Nashville have a shot. Though the chances were missed, each return to cold in the East involved a system running just west of the Apps. Some model runs have showed the trough centered for a time just east of the middle part of the country. We are pulling for you all out there! 3. That gets to the question of if it will snow again this winter. If that cold verifies, then one more round of winter WX appears there for the taking. Every single time it has turned cold this winter in our area, someone in the Great Valley has seen some form of winter weather in varying amounts going back to Thanksgiving. 4. In conclusion, I would not watch the models in the medium range for particular systems but time frames where models keep popping winter storms coinciding with cold. Easy, huh? How amazing was the last system...-PNA, +NAO? I guess maybe the best signal was a relaxation of the winter pattern. Now maybe, we watch the return to cold as the next signal. Awesome stuff here, Carver. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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